GUANGDONG PROVINCIAL EXPRESSWAY DEV'T(000429):1H24 RESULTS IN LINE;WATCH IMPACT OF TRAFFIC DIVERSION FROM SHENZHEN-ZHONGSHAN CHANNEL
GUANGDONG PROVINCIAL EXPRESSWAY DEV'T(000429):1H24 RESULTS IN LINE;WATCH IMPACT OF TRAFFIC DIVERSION FROM SHENZHEN-ZHONGSHAN CHANNEL
Solid fundamentals and high dividend payout ratio; dividend yieldoffers investment value. The firm's main road assets are located in Guangdong province, where its traffic volume is growing steadily.1H24 results in line with our expectationGuangdong Provincial Expressway Dev't announced its 1H24 results: Revenue fell 4.7% YoY to Rmb2.23bn, gross profit fell 5.1% YoY to Rmb1.52bn, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell 3.4% YoY to Rmb856mn, in line with our and market expectations. In 2Q24, revenue fell 6.7% YoY and 1.6% QoQ to Rmb1.11bn, gross profit fell 7.4% YoY and 2.4% QoQ to Rmb750mn, and net profit attributable to shareholders grew 8.6% YoY but rose 3.3% QoQ to Rmb435mn.
廣東省高速公路發展公佈了1H24年的業績: 營業收入同比下降4.7%至22.3億元人民幣，毛利潤同比下降5.1%至15.2億元人民幣，淨利潤同比下降3.4%至8.56億元人民幣，與我們和市場預期一致。在2Q24中，營業收入同比下降6.7%，環比下降1.6%至11.1億元人民幣，毛利潤同比下降7.4%，環比下降2.4%至7.5億元人民幣，淨利潤同比增長8.6%，環比增長3.3%至4.35億元人民幣。
Trends to watch Among the road assets controlled by the company, Guangzhou- Huizhou Expressway experienced traffic diversion, while Foshan- Kaiping Expressway and Guangzhu section of Jingzhu Expressway maintained stable vehicle traffic. In 1H24, Guangzhou-HuizhouExpressway's revenue fell 12.4% YoY to Rmb892mn, as its vehicle traffic was diverted by the opening of Guangzhou-Shanwei High-speed Railway, Huizhou-Longmen Expressway, and Dongguan-Panyu Expressway Phase III (part of the Guangzhou-Longchuan Expressway). Revenue of Foshan-Kaiping Expressway rose 1.3% YoY to Rmb743mn, and that of Guangzhu section of Jingzhu Expressway grew 1.9% YoY to Rmb569mn.
值得關注的趨勢：公司控制的道路資產中，廣州- 惠州高速公路的交通流量發生了轉移，而佛山- 開平高速公路和京珠高速公路的廣珠段的車輛流量保持穩定。在1H24中，廣州- 惠州高速公路的營業收入同比下降12.4%至8.92億元人民幣，因其車輛流量被廣州- 汕尾高鐵、惠州- 龍門高速公路和東莞- 番禺高速公路三期（延長線廣州- 龍川高速公路的一部分）的開通所轉移。佛山- 開平高速公路的營業收入同比增長1.3%至7.43億元人民幣，廣珠段的京珠高速公路的營業收入同比增長1.9%至5.69億元人民幣。
We suggest paying attention to the impact of Shenzhen-Zhongshan Channel's traffic diversion from Guangzhu section of JingzhuExpressway. After the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Channel opened on June 30, it diverted vehicle traffic from Guangzhu section of the Jingzhu Expressway, of which the toll revenue dropped 14.9% YoY in July, according to the company. According to the Department of Transport of Guangdong Province, the average daily vehicle traffic of the Shenzhen- Zhongshan Channel has been about 100,000 since its opening, and we believe the impact on the Guangzhu section of the Jingzhu Expressway warrants further attention.
我們建議關注深圳- 中山通道對京珠高速公路廣珠段的交通流量轉移的影響。據公司稱，自6月30日深圳- 中山通道開通以來，京珠高速公路廣珠段的車輛流量被轉移，其中在7月份收費收入同比下降14.9%。據廣東省交通廳稱，深圳- 中山通道的平均日車流量自開通以來約10萬輛，我們認爲對京珠高速公路廣珠段的影響值得進一步關注。
Solid fundamentals and high dividend payout ratio; dividend yieldoffers investment value. The firm's main road assets are located in Guangdong province, where its traffic volume is growing steadily.
公司的主要公路資產位於廣東省，交通量穩步增長，基本面良好且股息支付率高，股息收益率具有投資價值。
According to the Department of Transport of Guangdong Province, the traffic volume of expressways in Guangdong grew 2.15% YoY in 1H24, with passenger vehicles up 1.92% YoY and trucks up 3.1% YoY.
根據廣東省交通廳的數據，廣東省高速公路的交通量在1H24同比增長2.15%，其中乘用車同比增長1.92%，貨車同比增長3.1%。
The firm announced its 2024-2026 shareholder return plan, which includes an annual cash dividend of no less than 70% of attributable net profit. The firm has become one of the listed toll road companies with the highest dividend payout ratio. The current price implies a dividend yield of 4.8% in 2024 and 5.0% in 2025, which is still attractive.
該公司宣佈了2024-2026年的股東回報計劃，包括每年至少70%的歸屬淨利潤的現金股利。該公司已成爲分紅比率最高的上市收費公路公司之一。當前價格意味着2024年的股息率爲4.8%，2025年爲5.0%，仍然具有吸引力。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
Considering traffic diversion from road network changes, we lower our 2024 and 2025 net profit forecasts 11.6% and 9.8% to Rmb1,566mn and Rmb1,644mn. The stock is trading at 14.7x and 14.0x 2024e and 2025e P/E. As the firm boasts a high dividend payout ratio, relatively stable business operations, and attractive and visible dividend yield, we maintain OUTPERFORM and our TP of Rmb11.04, implying 14.7x 2024e and 14.0x 2025e P/E, same as current price.
考慮到道路網絡變化導致的交通轉移，我們將2024年和2025年的淨利潤預測下調了11.6%和9.8%，分別爲人民幣1,566萬元和人民幣1,644萬元。該股票的2024年和2025年市盈率分別爲14.7倍和14.0倍。由於該公司具有高分紅比例、相對穩定的業務運營和具有吸引力、可見的股息收益率，我們維持OUTPERFORm評級，目標價爲人民幣11.04元，2024年和2025年市盈率分別爲14.7倍和14.0倍，與當前價格相同。
Risks
風險
Disappointing economic growth; sharper-than-expected traffic diversion.
令人失望的經濟增長；比預期更爲劇烈的交通轉移。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
