BYD ELECTRONIC(00285.HK):1H2024 RESULTS DRAGGED BY JABIL CONSOLIDATION;EXPECT STRONG EXPANSION IN AI SERVER BUSINESS MAINTAIN "BUY"
BYD ELECTRONIC(00285.HK):1H2024 RESULTS DRAGGED BY JABIL CONSOLIDATION;EXPECT STRONG EXPANSION IN AI SERVER BUSINESS MAINTAIN "BUY"
In addition, the management also guided that in the second half of this year, the intelligent suspension systems will be equipped on more mid-end NEVs of BYD.Maintain "Buy" with TP at HK$34.30. We have a positive outlook on the Company's 2H2024 performance, driven by Apple share gains, AI server business and new NEV orders. Considering the short-term drag from the Jabil integration, we revise down the Company's 2024F-2026F EPS by 18.1%/ 14.6%/ 12.6% to RMB1.950/ RMB2.548/ RMB3.024, respectively, which represents a CAGR of 19.0% during 2023-2026F. We revise down our TP to HK$34.30 by applying 16.0x 2024F PER.
維持"買入"評級，目標價爲34.30港元。我們對公司2024年下半年的業績持積極看法，主要受益於蘋果份額增長、人工智能服務器業務和新能源汽車訂單的推動。考慮到捷普科技整合帶來的短期拖累，我們將公司2024年至2026年的每股收益預測下調18.1%/14.6%/12.6%，分別爲1.950/2.548/3.024元人民幣，預計2023年至2026年CAGR爲19.0%。我們將目標價調降至34.30港元，對應2024年預測市盈率爲16.0倍。
1H2024 profit missed market and our expectations due to lower GPM and higher Jabil-related expenses. Revenue in 1H2024 was RMB78.6 bn, up 39.9% YoY. Revenue growth was in-line, mainly driven by Apple share gains and further product expansion in the NEV supply chain. However, due to the changes in sales structure (eg. shrinkage in household energy storage business), the Company's GPM declined by 1.0 ppts to 7.85% in 1H2024. In addition, due to the Jabil integration, the Company recorded around RMB467 mn in intangible asset amortization in 1H2024, which resulted in weak 1H2024 shareholders' profit at RMB1,518 mn, only up by 0.14% YoY. The management guided that in 2H2024: 1) the GPM will improve due to the iPhone upgrade cycle; and 2) the intangible asset amortization will continue for the next five years.
2024年上半年利潤未達到市場及我們的預期，主要受到毛利率下降和捷普科技相關費用上升的影響。2024年上半年營業收入爲786億元人民幣，同比增長39.9%。營收增長符合預期，主要受益於蘋果份額增長和新能源汽車供應鏈的進一步產品拓展。然而，由於銷售結構變化（如家用能源存儲業務萎縮），公司上半年毛利率下降1.0個百分點，降至7.85%。此外，由於捷普科技整合，公司在2024年上半年計提了約4.67億元人民幣的無形資產攤銷，導致上半年股東利潤僅同比增長0.14%，達到1,518萬元人民幣。管理層指導稱2024年下半年：1）毛利率將因iPhone升級週期提高；2）無形資產攤銷將在未來五年繼續。
We expect upside surprise from the Company's AI server business and NEV orders in 2H2024. We believe AI server will be a profitable next-generation ODM product for the Company. BYD Electronic is cooperating with NVIDA in AI server development. We have become more positive on the shipment of AI server products in 4Q2024, and believe it will become a strong growth driver for the next three years, given the increasing AI server product demand. BYD Electronic has accumulated a lot of experience in automotive liquid cooling, which should provide it unique competitive advantages for its AI server business.
我們預計公司的人工智能服務器業務和新能源汽車訂單在2024年下半年會有驚喜。我們認爲人工智能服務器將成爲公司有利可圖的下一代ODm產品。比亞迪電子正在與NVIDA合作進行人工智能服務器開發。我們對2024年第四季度人工智能服務器產品的出貨量更加樂觀，並認爲在未來三年將成爲強勁的增長驅動力，因爲人工智能服務器產品需求不斷增加。比亞迪電子在汽車液冷方面積累了很多經驗，這將爲其人工智能服務器業務提供獨特的競爭優勢。
In addition, the management also guided that in the second half of this year, the intelligent suspension systems will be equipped on more mid-end NEVs of BYD.
此外，管理層還指導稱今年下半年，比亞迪將在更多中端新能源汽車上配備智能懸架系統。
In the past, the Company's intelligent suspension systems were only used on some high-end NEV models of BYD. We believe the intelligent suspension is gaining greater market penetration, which should help the Company to gain more market share beyond its parent company.
過去，該公司的智能懸掛系統只在比亞迪的一些高端新能源車型上使用。我們相信智能懸掛系統正在獲得更大的市場滲透，這將幫助公司在超越母公司的同時獲得更多市場份額。
Catalysts: 1) Improvement of production efficiency at Jabil plants; 2) shipment of AI server products; and 3) mass production of more new energy vehicle products. Downside risks: 1) market competition may be more intense than expected; and 2) product line expansion may be slower-than-expected.
催化劑：1）捷普工廠生產效率的提高；2）AI服務器產品的發貨；和3）更多新能源車型的大規模生產。下行風險：1）市場競爭可能比預期更激烈；和2）產品線擴展可能比預期慢。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
