COSCO SHIPPING ENERGY TRANSPORTATION(600026):UPTREND IN OIL SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO CONTINUE;WATCH FREIGHT RATE UPSIDE IN PEAK SEASON
COSCO SHIPPING ENERGY TRANSPORTATION(600026):UPTREND IN OIL SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO CONTINUE;WATCH FREIGHT RATE UPSIDE IN PEAK SEASON
1H24 results in line with our expectations
1H24的業績符合我們的預期
COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation announced its 1H24 results: Revenue rose 0.65% YoY to Rmb11.65bn; attributable net profit declined 7.11% to Rmb2.61bn, implying EPS of Rmb0.55. In 2Q24, revenue declined 2.2% YoY and 0.4% QoQ to Rmb5.81bn, and net profit declined 19.8% YoY and rose 10.9% QoQ to Rmb1.37bn, largely in line with the firm's preannouncement.
中遠海能公佈了其2024年上半年業績：營業收入同比增長0.65%至116.5億元人民幣；歸屬於母公司的淨利潤同比下降7.11%至26.1億元人民幣，每股收益爲0.55元人民幣。在2024年第二季度，營業收入同比下降2.2%，環比下降0.4%至58.1億元人民幣，而淨利潤同比下降19.8%，環比上漲10.9%至13.7億元人民幣，與公司的預告基本一致。
In 2Q24, the firm's GM improved QoQ but fell YoY, with gross profit and GM rising QoQ for the foreign trade oil shipping business and falling QoQ for the domestic oil shipping business; the LNG business is expanding with stable earnings contribution.
在2024年第二季度，該公司的毛利潤環比改善，但同比下降，毛利潤和毛利率在外貿油運業務環比上漲，在國內油運業務環比下降；液化天然氣業務正擴張並帶來穩定的收益。
Foreign trade oil shipping business: In 2Q24, gross profit reached
外貿油運業務：在2024年第二季度，毛利潤達到
Rmb1.32bn, down 15.2% YoY and up 8.3% QoQ, and GM fell 6.4ppt YoY and rose 1.5ppt QoQ. We believe the change in gross profit of the foreign trade business was mainly affected by foreign trade freight rates.
116.5億元人民幣，同比下降15.2%，環比上漲8.3%，而毛利率同比下降6.4個百分點，環比上漲1.5個百分點。我們認爲外貿業務毛利潤的變化主要受到外貿運價的影響。
According to Baltic Exchange, freight rates of VLCC-TD3C over March- May 2024 fell 12.1% YoY and rose 6.7% QoQ.
根據波羅的海交易所數據，2024年3月至5月，VLCC-TD3C的運費同比下降12.1%，環比上漲6.7%。
Domestic oil shipping business: Gross profit fell 17.9% YoY and 6.9% QoQ to Rmb342mn in 2Q24, with GM falling 3.0% YoY or 1.8% QoQ, which we attribute to weakening demand for domestic shipping and oil product consumption in 2Q24.
國內油運業務：2024年第二季度，毛利潤同比下降17.9%，環比下降6.9%至3.42億元人民幣，而毛利率同比下降3.0%，環比下降1.8%，我們將其歸因於2024年第二季度國內航運和油品消費需求疲軟。
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) business: The firm continues to expand its
液化天然氣（LNG）業務：該公司繼續擴大其
LNG business. In 2Q24, CLNG, a company in which the firm holds a stake, signed contracts for two super-large LNG shipping vessels. Gross profit from the LNG business reached Rmb243mn in 2Q24. In 1H24, the LNG business contributed net profit of Rmb400mn, flat YoY.
液化天然氣業務。在2024年第二季度，公司持股的CLNG公司簽訂了兩艘超大型液化天然氣運輸船的合同。液化天然氣業務在2024年第二季度實現了2.43億元人民幣的毛利潤。在2024年上半年，液化天然氣業務貢獻了4億元人民幣的淨利潤，同比持平。
Trends to watch The industry uptrend will continue; fluctuations in freight rates in the off-season reflect tightening supply and demand; freight rates should see a high upside in peak season in 4Q24. Data from Clarksons
值得關注的趨勢行業上行趨勢將持續；淡季運價波動反映供需收緊；運價應在2024年第四季度的旺季看到高增長。來自Clarksons的數據顯示
shows that the order backlog for oil tankers accounted for 8.9% of shipping capacity as of August, with 7.2% for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). However, VLCCs over 20 years of age accounted for 16% of the total capacity. As new shipping capacity cannot offset future demand for scrapping of old ships, we expect the industry's cyclical strength to increase year by year in the next three years amid tight supply of new ships. The 2-3Q is the traditional off-season for the oil shipping market.
顯示，截至8月，油輪訂單積壓量佔運力的8.9％，其中非常大型原油航母（VLCC）佔7.2％。然而，20年以上的VLCC佔總運力的16％。由於新的船舶運力無法抵消老船拆除的未來需求，我們預計在未來三年中，由於新船供應緊張，行業的週期強度將逐年增加。2-3季度是油船市場的傳統淡季。
However, freight rates have fluctuated during the recent off-season, which reflects further tightening of supply and demand. With the upcoming peak season in 4Q24, we see further upside in freight rates. In addition, we suggest watching changes in the output of OPEC+ countries in 4Q24.
然而，近期淡季運價波動，反映供需進一步收緊。隨着2024年第四季度的旺季即將到來，我們看到運價進一步上漲。此外，我們建議關注OPEC+國家在2024年第四季度產出的變化。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
As freight rates in the off-season are lower than expected, we cut our 2024 and 2025 net profit forecasts 7.8% and 3.7% to Rmb6.00bn and Rmb7.11bn. A-shares are trading at 11.5x 2024e and 9.7x 2025e P/E, and H-shares are trading at 6.2x 2024e and 5.1x 2025e P/E. Maintain OUTPERFORM. Given the rising sector risk appetite, we maintain our target price of Rmb18.2/sh for A-shares, implying 14.5x 2024e and 12.2x 2025e P/E, offering 26.2% upside, and HK$12.3/sh for H-shares, implying 8.8x 2024e and 7.2x 2025e P/E, offering 41.7% upside.
由於淡季運價低於預期，我們將2024年和2025年的淨利潤預測下調了7.8％和3.7％至60億元人民幣和71.1億元人民幣。A股的2024年末和2025年末市盈率分別爲11.5倍和9.7倍，H股的2024年末和2025年末市盈率分別爲6.2倍和5.1倍。維持跑贏大盤評級。鑑於板塊風險偏好上升，我們維持A股的目標價爲18.2元/股，暗示2024年末和2025年末市盈率分別爲14.5倍和12.2倍，提供26.2％的上行空間，H股目標價爲12.3港元/股，暗示2024年末和2025年末市盈率分別爲8.8倍和7.2倍，提供41.7％的上行空間。
Risks
風險
Large-scale shipbuilding by global oil tanker owners; slowing growth of oil product demand; geopolitical changes.
全球油輪業主的大規模造船；石油產品需求增長放緩；地緣政治變化。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。