CHINA RESOURCES GAS(1193.HK):INTERIM EARNINGS BEAT;REITERATE BUY WITH A HIGHER TARGET PRICE
CHINA RESOURCES GAS(1193.HK):INTERIM EARNINGS BEAT;REITERATE BUY WITH A HIGHER TARGET PRICE
The operating profit of its comprehensive services segment surged 22% YoY in 1H24 with its market share of kitchen appliances rose 0.3ppt YoY to 9.0%. The company continued to promote the "Gas Butler" model and implemented network management to cover 32.61m HH, about 55% of its residential clients.The net profit of CR Gas slipped 2% YoY to HK$3,457m in 1H24, 6% above our forecast. This discrepancy mainly came from the higher- than-expected dollar margin. We expect its earnings to drop 40% HoH in 2H24 as the company usually books much higher expenses in 2H of a year. We raise our 2024-26E earnings forecasts by 7-9% and reiterate our BUY call with target price increased to HK$35.41.
CR燃料幣的淨利潤在1H24年下滑了2%至345.7億港元，比我們的預測高出6%。這種差異主要來自高於預期的美元利潤率。我們預計，由於該公司通常在一年的2H期間會有更高的支出，其盈利將在2H24下降40%。我們將2024-26E年度收益預測上調7-9%，並重申買入觀點，目標價上調至35.41港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
The company's dollar margin improved from RMB0.50/m3 in 1H23 to RMB0.54/m3 (vs our forecast of RMB0.50/m3) in 1H24 on improvement in gas procurement mix and low upstream gas cost. Its gas sales volume grew 6% YoY. However, all these were largely offset by 23% YoY decline in new connections to 1.03m HH (vs our forecast of 1.21m HH) in 1H24. Together with the increase effective tax rate from 18.5% in 1H23 to 24.6% in 1H24, the company ended up with a small earnings decline in 1H24.
該公司的美元利潤率從1H23年的人民幣0.50/m3提高至1H24年的人民幣0.54/m3（高於我們預測的人民幣0.50/m3），得益於氣源採購結構的改善和上游氣價的下降。其氣體銷售量同比增長6%。然而，所有這些增長在1H24年都被103萬戶（低於我們預測的121萬戶）的新連接數同比下降23%所抵消。再加上1H23年的有效稅率從18.5%上升至1H24年的24.6%，該公司在1H24年實現少量盈利下降。
The operating profit of its comprehensive services segment surged 22% YoY in 1H24 with its market share of kitchen appliances rose 0.3ppt YoY to 9.0%. The company continued to promote the "Gas Butler" model and implemented network management to cover 32.61m HH, about 55% of its residential clients.
該公司綜合服務業務的營業利潤在1H24年同比增長22%，其廚房電器市場份額比1H23年增長0.3個百分點至9.0%。公司繼續推廣"燃料幣管家"模式，並實施網絡管理，覆蓋3261萬戶，約佔居民客戶的55%。
The company has identified distributed solar, distributed energy and EV charging as the three key operations of its comprehensive energy business. In 1H24, the gross profit of this business surged 84% YoY to about HK$160m.
該公司已將分佈式太陽能、分佈式能源和電動車充電樁確定爲其綜合能源業務的三個關鍵業務。在1H24年，該業務的毛利潤同比飆升84%，達到約1.6億港元。
While the company raises its interim DPS by 67% YoY to HK$0.25, it is more to do with the reallocation of the split between interim and final DPS rather than signaling the increase in full-year payout.
雖然該公司將中期每股派息率同比提高67%至0.25港元，但這更多是對中期和年度派息比例重新分配的結果，而不是表明全年派息增加。
We expect its earnings to be 40% lower HoH in 2H24 mainly because the company usually books much higher SG&A expenses in 2H of a year.
我們預計該公司在2H24年的盈利將下降40%，主要是因爲該公司通常在一年的2H期間會有更高的銷售、總務及行政支出。
We raise our 2024-26 earnings forecasts by 7-9% in view of the better-than- expected earnings in 1H24. In particular, we raise our dollar margin forecasts from RMB0.52/m3 to RMB53-0.54/m3 and lower our HQ expenses forecasts. This outweighs the 1-3% cuts in our gas sales assumptions and the 3-7% cuts in our new connection forecasts.
考慮到1H24年盈利超出預期，我們將2024-26年度收益預測上調7-9%。具體而言，我們將美元利潤率預測從人民幣0.52/m3上調至人民幣0.53-0.54/m3，並下調了總部費用預測。這抵消了我們對氣體銷售量的1-3%的下調以及我們對新連接預測的3-7%的下調。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Higher-than-expected costs.
成本高於預期。
Faster-than-expected fall in new connections.
新連接下降速度比預期快。
Valuation
估值
We increase our DCF valuation and hence target price from HK$31.16 to HK$35.41 given the increases in our earnings forecasts. This is equal to 14.5x 2024E P/E.
由於我們的盈利預測增加，我們將DCF估值和目標價從HK$31.16增加到HK$35.41。這相當於2024E市盈率爲14.5倍。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
