HUAIBEI MINING HOLDINGS(600985):2Q24 RESULTS BEAT EXPECTATIONS;AN UNDERVALUED LEADING PRODUCER OF COKING COAL
HUAIBEI MINING HOLDINGS(600985):2Q24 RESULTS BEAT EXPECTATIONS;AN UNDERVALUED LEADING PRODUCER OF COKING COAL
Prices: In 2Q24, the long-term contract prices of coking coal were lowered by around Rmb200/t, and the firm's overall ASP was Rmb1,112/t (down Rmb30/t YoY and down Rmb64/t QoQ), as prices of other coals slightly offset the decline in long-term contract prices and Zouzhuang Mine shifted from thermal coal to coking coal.2Q24 results beat our and market expectations
2Q24的業績超出了我們和市場的預期
Huaibei Mining announced its 1H24 results: Revenue fell 0.17% YoY to Rmb37.2bn and net profit attributable to shareholders fell 18% YoY to Rmb2.94bn. In 2Q24, revenue and attributable net profit fell 9% YoY and 15% QoQ to Rmb19.95bn and Rmb1.346bn, beating our expectations thanks to mild price decline and effective cost control.
淮北礦業宣佈了其1H24的業績：營業收入同比下降0.17%至人民幣372億元，歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比下降18%至人民幣29.4億元。2Q24的營業收入和歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比下降9%，環比下降15%，分別達到了人民幣199.5億元和人民幣13.46億元，得益於溫和的價格下降和有效的成本控制，超出了我們的預期。
Coal business: Output and sales volume: In 1H24, output and sales volume of market-oriented coal (excluding domestic sales, the same below) fell 9% and 18% YoY to 10.32mnt and 8.03mnt, mainly due to the suspension of Xinhu Coal Mine. In 2Q24, output of market-oriented coal fell 10% YoY and 3% QoQ to 5.09mnt, and sales volume slid 15% YoY and 0.5% QoQ to 4.01mnt.
煤炭業務：產量和銷量：1H24市場定向煤炭的產量和銷量（不包括國內銷售，下同）同比下降9%和18%，分別爲1032萬噸和803萬噸，主要是因爲新護煤礦的停產。2Q24市場定向煤炭的產量同比下降10%，環比下降3%，達到了509萬噸，銷量同比下降15%，環比下降0.5%，達到了401萬噸。
Prices: In 2Q24, the long-term contract prices of coking coal were lowered by around Rmb200/t, and the firm's overall ASP was Rmb1,112/t (down Rmb30/t YoY and down Rmb64/t QoQ), as prices of other coals slightly offset the decline in long-term contract prices and Zouzhuang Mine shifted from thermal coal to coking coal.
價格：2Q24焦煤的長期合同價格下調了大約200元/噸，公司的總平均銷售價格爲1112元/噸（同比下降30元/噸，環比下降64元/噸），其他煤炭價格略微抵消了長期合同價格的下降，鄒莊礦從動力煤轉出到焦煤。
Cost: In 2Q24, per-tonne cost was Rmb537 (down Rmb86 YoY and down Rmb56 QoQ), reflecting effective cost control. Gross profit per tonne was Rmb575 in 2Q24, up Rmb56 YoY and down Rmb9 QoQ.
成本：2Q24每噸成本爲537元（同比下降86元，環比下降56元），反映了有效的成本控制。2Q24每噸毛利潤爲575元，同比增加了56元，環比下降了9元。
Coal chemical business: Coke: Output and sales volume totaled 1.7mnt and 1.7mnt in 1H24 (822,000t and 841,400t in 2Q24); ASP was Rmb2,127/t in 1H24 and Rmb1,937/t in 2Q24 (-18% YoY and -16% QoQ). Looking ahead, the loss-making coking business has no signs of improving. The firm has suspended production for maintenance and strengthened by-products to offset losses.
煤化工業務：焦炭：1H24產量和銷量分別達到了170萬噸和170萬噸（2Q24爲8220萬噸和8414萬噸）；平均銷售價格爲2127元/噸（1H24）、1937元/噸（2Q24）（同比下降18%，環比下降16%）。展望未來，虧損的焦炭業務沒有改善的跡象。公司已停產進行維修，加強副產品以抵消虧損。
Methanol: Output and sales volume totaled 160,000t and 120,000t in 1H24, and 69,900t and 36,400t in 2Q24; the ASP was Rmb2,177/t in 1H24, and rose 8% YoY and 2% QoQ to Rmb2,210/t in 2Q24.
甲醇：1H24產量和銷量分別達到了16萬噸和12萬噸，2Q24產量和銷量分別達到了69900萬噸和36400萬噸；平均銷售價格爲2177元/噸（1H24），2Q24同比增加了8%，環比增加了2%，達到了2210元/噸。
Ethanol: The firm's 600,000t ethanol project started production in 2Q24. It recorded output and sales volume of 75,500t and 63,600t with an average price of Rmb5,398/t, implying decent profit per tonne.
乙醇：公司的60萬噸乙醇項目於2Q24開始生產。總產量和銷量分別爲75500萬噸和63600萬噸，平均價格爲5398元/噸，每噸可觀的利潤。
Financials: G&A expenses rose by Rmb253mn QoQ in 2Q24, mainly due to provisions for annual remuneration (one-off provisions). In 1H24, operating cash flow was Rmb5.4bn and capex totaled Rmb3.85bn, mainly due to the construction of Taohutu project, 2x660MW ultra-supercritical power generation units, and ethanol projects. The firm's liability-to-asset ratio was around 49%, -3ppt from end-2023.
財務: 2Q24公司的管理費用環比上漲了2.53億元，主要是由於年度薪酬的提供(一次性準備金)。1H24的經營現金流爲54億元，資本支出總計爲38.5億元，主要是由於桃烏圖項目、2×660MW超超臨界發電機組的建設以及乙醇項目。公司的負債資產比率約爲49%，比2023年年底下降了3個百分點。
Trends to watch
需要注意的趨勢
Long-term contract prices to be under pressure in 4Q24; rising coal output and loss reduction in coal chemicals to support earnings in the next two years. We expect long-term coking coal prices to come under pressure in 4Q24, given weak demand in the ferrous metal value chain, high coal imports from Mongolia, and accelerated production resumption in Shanxi and other provinces.
預計長期合同價格將在2024年第四季度面臨壓力；煤炭產量上升和煤化工的虧損減少將支持未來兩年的收益。我們預計，在2024年第四季度，長焦煤長期合同價格將面臨壓力，因爲鐵合金產業鏈需求疲軟，蒙古煤炭進口量較多，山西等省份加快了生產復甦。
Looking ahead, the Xinhu Mine is about to resume production and the Taohutu Mine has completed construction of the main shaft. The firm aims to complete overall construction of the Taohutu Mine by end-2025. We believe these factors lay a foundation for the firm's output growth in the next two years. In addition, the firm started operation of 600,000t ethanol project in June 2024, which should help the coal chemical sector turn profitable thanks to its lucrative earnings per tonne. Based on a dividend payout ratio of 42% in 2023, the firm's current share prices imply a 2024e dividend yield of 5.6%. As a high-quality supplier of coking coal, we think the firm is offering attractive investment value.
展望未來，新湖煤礦即將恢復生產，桃烏圖煤礦已完成主井施工。公司計劃在2025年底前完成桃烏圖煤礦的整體建設。我們認爲這些因素爲公司未來兩年的產量增長奠定了基礎。此外，公司於2024年6月開始運營60萬噸/年的乙醇項目，這有助於煤化工業扭虧爲盈，因爲其每噸的盈利可觀。根據2023年的股息支付比率爲42%，公司當前的股價暗示2024年的股息收益率爲5.6%。作爲高質量的焦煤供應商，我們認爲該公司具有吸引力的投資價值。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
Given pressure on long-term contract prices in 4Q24, we cut our 2024 and 2025 EPS forecasts by 17% each to Rmb1.93 and Rmb2.11. The stock is trading at 7.1x 2024e and 6.5x 2025e P/E. We maintain OUTPERFORM rating, and cut our TP 17% to Rmb19, implying 9.8x 2024e and 9.0x 2025e P/E and 38% upside.
鑑於2024年第四季度長期合同價格的壓力，我們將2024年和2025年的每股收益預測下調了17%，分別爲1.93元和2.11元。股票的2024年預測市盈率爲7.1倍，2025年預測市盈率爲6.5倍。我們維持超額表現評級，並將目標價下調17%至19元，相當於2024年的市盈率爲9.8倍，2025年的市盈率爲9.0倍，上漲38%。
Risks
風險
Disappointing demand; stricter-than-expected safety regulatory control; negative surprises in production resumption at Xinhu Mine.
需求不及預期；安全監管控制比預期更嚴格；新湖煤礦的生產復甦出現了負面的意外。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
