MEIDONG AUTO(1268.HK):MORE POSITIVE FY25 AFTER 1H24 CORE EARNINGS BEAT
MEIDONG AUTO(1268.HK):MORE POSITIVE FY25 AFTER 1H24 CORE EARNINGS BEAT
Valuation/Key risks. We maintain our BUY rating but cut target price slightly from HK$3.00 to HK$2.80, based on 9x (prior 10x) our revised FY25E EPS to reflect the current market volatility. Key risks to our rating and target price include lower sales and/or margins than expected, especially for after-sales services, as well as a sector de-rating.Maintain BUY. Meidong Auto's 1H24 adjusted net profit beat our prior forecast on after-sales service GPM and SG&A reduction. We view its cost reduction efforts as impressive. Although we expect industrywide headwinds to continue, we believe investors could turn a bit more positive on Meidong's FY25 outlook given the removal of the convertible bond (CB) burden, traditional luxury brands' sales target cuts and a new NEV model cycle for BMW.
維持買入。美東汽車的2024年上半年調整後的淨利潤超出了我們之前的預測，主要得益於售後服務毛利和銷售及管理費用的降低。我們認爲其成本削減措施令人印象深刻。儘管我們預計行業整體面臨的逆風將持續下去，但考慮到可轉換債券（CB）負擔的解除、傳統豪華品牌的銷售目標下調以及寶馬新能源汽車模型的週期，我們相信投資者可能會對美東2025財年的前景抱有更樂觀的態度。
Core earnings beat on cost reduction. Meidong's 1H24 adjusted net profit (excluding impairment without tax effect) of RMB124mn was RMB80mn higher than our prior forecast. Its 1H24 revenue was 11% lower than our forecast, mainly due to the sales volume miss. GPM of 7.6% was largely in line with our projection of 7.4%, as new-car GPM of -5.1% missed our forecast of -3.7% but after-sales service (including auto finance) GPM of 59.8% beat our forecast of 56.5%. SG&A expenses in 1H24 (RMB620mn) were about RMB160mn lower than our prior estimates.
核心盈利超出預期，主要得益於成本削減。美東2024年上半年調整後的淨利潤（不計稅後減值）爲1.24億元人民幣，比我們之前的預測高出8億元人民幣。其上半年營業收入比我們的預測低11%，主要是因爲銷量不及預期。毛利率爲7.6%，與我們預期的7.4%基本符合，其中新車的毛利率爲-5.1%，低於我們預測的-3.7%，但售後服務（包括汽車金融）的毛利率爲59.8%，超出我們的預測56.5%。上半年銷售及管理費用爲人民幣6.2億元，比我們之前的估算低了約16億元。
Less financial burden in FY25E. We maintain our views as a month ago: we expect 2H24 and FY25 to be better than 1H24 for Meidong in terms of profitability, despite continued gloomy new-car sales. We maintain our 2H24 new-car sales volume at around 29,500 units. We assume Meidong's new- car GPM to improve slightly to -3.8% in 2H24 and -3.4% in FY24 amid lowered sales targets by Porsche and BMW. We expect after-sales service revenue to fall 3% YoY in FY25 amid weak economic situation. It appears to us that key to Meidong's earnings sustainability now lies in after-sales GPM. We project after-sales GPM to narrow 1.2ppts YoY to 58.5% in FY25. All combined would result in a gross profit lift of RMB100mn YoY in FY25. We also estimate CB interest expense and withholding tax to reduce by RMB120mn YoY in FY25. We assume impairment on goodwill to be both RMB50mn for 2H24 and FY25, respectively, with the previous patterns. Accordingly, we cut our FY24E net profit by 28% to RMB122mn and raise our FY25E net profit by 6% to RMB382mn.
2025財年財務負擔較輕。與一個月前相比，我們維持了相同觀點：我們預計美東的2024年下半年和2025財年的盈利情況將好於上半年，儘管新車銷量走勢仍然黯淡。我們認爲美東下半年的新車銷量將維持在約2.95萬輛左右。我們預計美東新車的毛利率將在2024年下半年略有改善，爲-3.8%，2024財年爲-3.4%，而寶馬和保時捷的銷售目標下調。預計由於經濟疲軟，2025財年售後服務收入將同比下降3%。在我們看來，美東盈利的關鍵現在在於售後服務毛利率。我們預計2025財年售後服務毛利率將同比減少1.2個百分點，至58.5%。所有這些將導致2025財年毛利增加1億元人民幣。我們還估計可轉債利息支出和預提稅金在2025財年將同比減少1.2億元人民幣。我們假設商譽減值在2024年下半年和2025財年分別爲5千萬元，與之前的模式一致。因此，我們下調了2024財年的淨利潤28%，至1.22億元人民幣，將2025財年的淨利潤上調了6%，至3.82億元人民幣。
Valuation/Key risks. We maintain our BUY rating but cut target price slightly from HK$3.00 to HK$2.80, based on 9x (prior 10x) our revised FY25E EPS to reflect the current market volatility. Key risks to our rating and target price include lower sales and/or margins than expected, especially for after-sales services, as well as a sector de-rating.
估值/主要風險。我們維持買入評級，但基於我們修訂後的FY25E每股收益的9倍（之前爲10倍）稍微降低了目標價至HK$2.80（原爲HK$3.00），以反映目前的市場波動。我們評級和目標價的主要風險包括銷售額和/或毛利率低於預期，特別是售後服務，以及板塊評級降低。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
