ICBC(1398.HK):1H24 EARNINGS DROPPED
ICBC(1398.HK):1H24 EARNINGS DROPPED
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) attributable net profit dropped 1.9% YoY in 1H24, largely in line with our expectation, against negative growth of 2.8% YoY in 1Q24. As one of the biggest banks in China, its scale increased steadily. As of end June 2024, its loans/deposits increased 6.7%/1.7% from end 2023. Its net interest income decreased 6.8% YoY in 1H24, mainly due to mixed effects of steady growth in interest-earning assets and decrease in NIM. Its NPL ratio dropped in 1H24, as asset quality remained solid. ICBC maintained strict NPL recognition and its allowance to NPLs ratio increased in 1H24. ICBC announced an interim dividend of RMB0.1434 per share, which should bode well for shareholders' returns. Its H shares are now trading at below 0.4x 2024E P/B, which, in our view, is undervalued. Looking ahead, we believe ICBC will report positive growth in earnings amid solid asset quality in 2024. Maintain BUY rating.
工商銀行（ICBC）1H24歸屬淨利潤同比下降1.9%，與我們的預期基本一致，1Q24同比下降2.8%。作爲中國最大的銀行之一，其規模穩步增長。截至2024年6月底，其貸款/存款較2023年底分別增長了6.7%/1.7%。由於利息收益資產穩定增長和淨利息邊際減少的影響，其淨利息收入1H24同比下降6.8%。由於資產質量保持穩固，1H24不良貸款率下降。工商銀行保持嚴格的不良貸款確認，並且1H24津貼收入佔不良貸款比重增加。工商銀行宣佈派每股人民幣0.1434元的中期股息，這有利於股東回報。目前其H股的交易價格低於2024E P/b的0.4倍，我們認爲這是被低估的。展望未來，我們相信工商銀行將在2024年保持質優資產展現出的正增長。維持買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Asset quality was solid in 1H24. Its NPL ratio reached 1.35% at end June 2024, lower than 1.36% at end March 2024 and 1.36% at end December 2023. ICBC maintained strict NPL recognition policy in 1H24. Its allowance to NPLs reached 218.4% at end June 2024, against 216.3% at end March 2024 and 214% at end December 2023. We expect its NPL to stay at 1.35% in 2024.
1H24資產質量良好。其不良貸款率截至2024年6月底達到1.35%，低於2024年3月底的1.36%和2023年12月底的1.36%。工商銀行在1H24保持了嚴格的不良貸款識別政策。其津貼收入佔不良貸款比重在2024年6月底達到218.4%，高於2024年3月底的216.3%和2023年12月底的214%。我們預計其2024年的不良貸款率將保持在1.35%。
Net interest margin (NIM) dropped in 1H24. As ICBC strengthened its financial support to the real economy and small and medium sized enterprises, its NIM declined in 1H24. Its NIM reached 1.43% in 1H24 and 1.48% in 1Q24, down 18bps and 13bps from 2023. We expect its NIM to drop 21bps in 2024.
淨利息邊際（NIM）在1H24下降。由於工商銀行加強對實體經濟和中小企業的財務支持，其淨利息邊際在1H24下降。其淨利息邊際在1H24達到1.43%，在1Q24達到1.48%，分別比2023年下降了18個點子和13個點子。我們預計其2024年的淨利息邊際將下降21個點子。
Fee and commission income dropped in 1H24. Its net fee and commission income decreased 8.2% YoY in 1H24, against negative YoY growth of 2.8% in 1Q24, mainly due to volatile equity markets.
手續費及佣金收入在1H24下降。其淨手續費及佣金收入1H24同比下降8.2%，與1Q24同比負增長2.8%主要是由於股權市場的波動。
Key Risks to Rating
評級關鍵風險
The bank might be under strong pressure to provide more support to the real economy if China's economy slows down significantly.
如果中國經濟顯著放緩，銀行可能面臨着爲實體經濟提供更多支持的巨大壓力。
Valuation
估值
We expect its ROAE to reach 9.9% in 2024. Its H shares are now trading at 0.4x 2024E P/B. Considering its solid asset quality, decent ROAE and around 7.5% dividend yield, we believe the bank is undervalued. We decreased our target price from HK$6.26 to HK$6.25, based on about 0.55x 2024E P/B.
預計其2024年的ROAE將達到9.9%。其H股現在以0.4倍2024E P/b交易。考慮到其良好的資產質量，合理的ROAE和約7.5%的股息率，我們認爲該銀行被低估了。 我們將目標價從HK$6.26降低到HK$6.25，基於約0.55倍2024E P/b。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。