SANY HEAVY(600031):EXPECT A BETTER 2H24E BUT CONSENSUS REMAINS HIGH; MAINTAIN HOLD
SANY HEAVY(600031):EXPECT A BETTER 2H24E BUT CONSENSUS REMAINS HIGH; MAINTAIN HOLD
Outlook for emerging markets: SANY expects Africa (+60% YoY in 1H24), Latin America (+70% in 1H24) and the Middle East will see explosive growth potential across different products. India is expected to maintain 30% growth going forward and SANY will increase the production capacity there. For Indonesia (where SANY has 30% market share for excavators), sales were affected by the election but have been recovered recently.During the post-results call, SANY Heavy (SANY) remained positive on the overseas outlook despite the recent weakness of excavators in Europe and the US. SANY expects the sales in the US to see potential stabilisation in 2025E, while the growth in emerging countries will continue to be strong. For 2H24E, SANY expects China's sales to stabilize (-12% in 1H24) while overseas sales growth will accelerate (+4.8% in 1H24). Given that our 2024E-26E earnings forecasts (unchanged after 1H24 results) remain 13-29% below consensus even taking into consideration of growth acceleration in 2H, we maintain our HOLD rating with an unchanged TP of RMB14.8, based on 24x 2024E P/E.
在業績後的電話會議上，三一重工（SANY）在歐洲和美國挖掘機近期疲軟的情況下，對海外前景保持積極態度。SANY預計美國銷售在2025年有可能穩定，而新興市場的增長將繼續強勁。對於未來兩年下半年，SANY預計中國銷售將穩定（前半年下降12%），而海外銷售增長將加速（前半年增長4.8%）。考慮到在未來兩年下半年的增長加速，我們對2024年到2026年的盈利預測保持不變（1H24業績之後），仍然低於市場共識13-29%。基於2024年預測的市盈率24倍，我們維持持有評級，目標價不變爲人民幣14.8元。
2Q24 results highlights. Revenue dropped 3% YoY to RMB21.2bn. Gross margin slightly contracted 0.4ppt YoY to 28.6%. S&D / administrative expense ratio increased 0.3ppt / 0.4ppt YoY to 8%/3%, while R&D expense ratio reduced 0.5ppt YoY to 6.2% (a continuous reduction trend since late 2022). Pre-tax profit slightly increased 0.5% YoY, as the FX loss (versus large gain in 2Q23) was offset by a reduction of fair value loss. Net profit increased 5.5% YoY to RMB2bn, helped by lower tax rate. Operating cash inflow surged 1x YoY to RMB4bn from a low base.
2Q24的業績亮點。營業收入同比下降3%至212億元人民幣。毛利率同比微降0.4個百分點至28.6%。銷售與分銷/管理費用比率分別同比增加0.3個百分點/0.4個百分點至8%/3%，而研發費用比率同比下降0.5個百分點至6.2%（自2022年末以來持續下降）。稅前利潤同比略微增長0.5%，由於外匯損失（相對於2Q23的大幅收益）被公允價值損失的減少所抵消。淨利潤同比增長5.5%至20億元人民幣，受到較低的稅率的幫助。經營性現金流入自低點增長了1倍至40億元人民幣。
Overseas revenue growth driven by Africa in 1H24. Overseas revenue in 1H24 (62% of total revenue) grew 4.8% YoY to RMB23.5bn. In terms of region, Africa surged 66% YoY to RMB2.3bn (10% of overseas revenue). Asia Pacific (ex-China) grew 3% YoY to RMB9.2bn (39% of overseas). Europe grew 1% YoY to RMB8.2bn (35% of overseas). America revenue dropped 4% YoY to RMB3.8bn (16% of overseas). In terms of products, overseas' excavator / concrete machinery / crane were -7%/+10%/+20%. Overseas gross margin expanded 0.6ppt YoY to 31.6%.
境外收入增長由非洲帶動。境外收入在1H24（總收入的62%）同比增長4.8%，達到235億元人民幣。按地域來看，非洲同比激增66%，達到23億元人民幣（境外收入的10%）。亞太地區（中國以外）同比增長3%，達到92億元人民幣（境外收入的39%）。歐洲同比增長1%，達到82億元人民幣（境外收入的35%）。美洲收入同比下降4%，達到38億元人民幣（境外收入的16%）。按產品來看，境外挖掘機/混凝土機械/起重機分別同比下降7%/增長10%/增長20%。境外毛利率同比擴大0.6個百分點至31.6%。
Outlook for emerging markets: SANY expects Africa (+60% YoY in 1H24), Latin America (+70% in 1H24) and the Middle East will see explosive growth potential across different products. India is expected to maintain 30% growth going forward and SANY will increase the production capacity there. For Indonesia (where SANY has 30% market share for excavators), sales were affected by the election but have been recovered recently.
新興市場展望：SANY預計非洲（1H24同比增長60%），拉丁美洲（1H24同比增長70%）和中東地區不同產品將爆發性增長。印度預計在未來保持30%的增長，SANY將在印度增加生產能力。對於印度尼西亞（SANY在挖掘機領域擁有30%的市場份額），銷售受選舉影響，但最近已經恢復。
Outlook for Europe and the US. Sales in the US market were affected by high inventories, and SANY expects a recovery in 2025E. For Europe, cranes will see decent growth in 2H24E.
歐洲和美國的前景。美國市場的銷售受到高庫存的影響，三一預計2025年將實現復甦。而對於歐洲來說，吊車在2024年下半年預計會有相當的增長。
Outlook for China. Small-size excavators have maintained an accelerated growth trend, while medium & large-size excavators are stabilizing. Concrete machinery and cranes remain on a downtrend.
中國的前景。小型挖掘機保持了加速增長的趨勢，而中大型挖掘機則正在穩定。混凝土機械和吊車仍處於下行趨勢。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
