WINGTECH(600745):1H24 RESULTS REVIEW:CHALLENGING 1H; LOOKING FOR RECOVERY IN 2H
WINGTECH(600745):1H24 RESULTS REVIEW:CHALLENGING 1H; LOOKING FOR RECOVERY IN 2H
Maintain BUY, as the worst is behind. We have lowered our earnings estimates by 73%/42% for 2024/25E, given the GPM challenges. We estimate Wingtech's sales to grow low-teens HoH/YoY in 2H24/2025, with gradual margin recovery (up 2.8ppt in 2H vs. 1H, up 2.2ppt in 2025). Our TP is trimmed to RMB48, based on 23.5x 2025E P/E, close to 1SD below 1-yr hist. avg., reflecting persist challenges from ongoing inventory correction of power semi in auto market and consumption downgrade pressure on ODM GPM.Wingtech 1H24 sales were up 15% YoY to RMB33.6bn, driven by strong ODM sales (up 27% YoY), partially offset by weaker semiconductor sales (down 8% YoY). NP declined 89% YoY to RMB140mn, as GPM deteriorated to 9.5% in 1H24 (vs. 17.6%/14.7% in 1H23/2H23). Semi. GPM showed signs of recovery (up 7.7ppt in 2Q). We expect ODM GPM to improve in 2H24 to 5.0% from 2.5% in 1H24. We think 1H24 should likely be the bottom. Maintain BUY, with a new TP of RMB48.
Wingtech上半年24銷售額同比增長15%，達336億元人民幣，受強勁ODm銷售（同比增長27%）推動，部分抵消了半導體銷售的疲軟（同比下降8%）。淨利潤同比下降89%，至1.4億元人民幣，由於上半年24 GPm惡化至9.5%（分別比上半年23/下半年23的17.6%/14.7%低）。半導體GPm顯示出復甦跡象（2Q增加7.7ppt）。預計ODm GPm將在下半年24從1H24的2.5%提高到5.0%。我們認爲1H24可能是低點。維持買入評級，目標價從人民幣48元調整爲新的目標價人民幣48元。
Semi. business showed signs of recovery with 6% QoQ revenue growth and 7.7ppt increase in GPM in 2Q. Semi. sales dropped to RMB3.4bn in 1Q (-10% YoY/-5% QoQ) but managed to grew 6% QoQ to RMB 3.6bn in 2Q. The weakness was mainly due to a soft demand for auto semi (63% of 1H24 segment rev.), as the sector was experiencing inventory correction. GPM dipped to 31.0% in 1Q (-2.8ppt/10.7ppt vs. 4Q23/1Q23) but rebounded to 38.7% in 2Q. We expect GPM to maintain at 2Q level in 2H, considering mixed impacts of 1) ongoing inventory digestion in auto market, 2) an improving utilization rate, 3) a favorable product mix and 4) cost optimization. We project segment sales to grow 12% YoY and GPM to increase to 40% in 2025 on lower channel inventory and better demand.
半導體業務顯示出復甦跡象，2Q收入增長6%，GPm增加7.7ppt。半導體銷售額在1Q下降至34億元人民幣（同比下降10%/環比下降5%），但在2Q成功增長6%，達36億元人民幣。這主要是由於汽車半導體需求疲軟（佔1H24板塊收入的63%），因爲該板塊正在經歷庫存調整。GPm在1Q下降至31.0%（分別比4Q23/1Q23的-2.8ppt/10.7ppt），但在2Q反彈至38.7%。我們預計GPm在下半年會保持在2Q水平，考慮到1）汽車市場持續庫存消化的影響，2）利用率的提高，3）產品組合的優化和4）成本優化的混合影響。我們預計板塊銷售額將同比增長12%，GPm將在2025年提高至40%，反映了較低的渠道庫存和更好的需求。
ODM business grew on new orders from overseas clients; mobile- related ASP slid, reflecting a challenging market with consumption downgrade trend and intensified competition. ODM revenue grew 21% YoY to RMB12.4bn in 1Q and another 10% QoQ to RMB13.7bn in 2Q. However, GPM deteriorated to 3%/2% in 1Q/2Q (vs. 9% for 1H23), due to low-margin orders and rising material/headcount costs. ODM segment posted a net loss of RMB350mn in 1H24. Mgmt. expects NP to breakeven in 3Q and turn positive in 4Q. We project ODM segment sales to grow 12% YoY in 2025 on better consumer sentiment and GPM to increase to 6.3% (still lower than previous 8%-10% range), reflecting effective cost control against the backdrop of ongoing consumption downgrade pressure.
ODm業務增長源於境外客戶的新訂單；與移動相關的ASP下滑，反映了一個具有消費降級趨勢和激烈競爭的市場。ODm收入在1Q同比增長21%，達124億元人民幣，在2Q再次環比增長10%，達137億元人民幣。然而，由於低毛利訂單和物料/人員成本上升，GPm在1Q/2Q下降至3%/2%（分別比1H23的9%低），ODm板塊在1H24錄得3.5億元人民幣的淨虧損。管理層預計NP將在3Q實現盈虧平衡，並在4Q實現盈利。我們預測ODm板塊銷售額將同比增長12%。到2025年，GPm將提高至6.3%（仍低於之前的8%-10%區間），反映了在持續消費降級壓力背景下的有效成本控制。
Maintain BUY, as the worst is behind. We have lowered our earnings estimates by 73%/42% for 2024/25E, given the GPM challenges. We estimate Wingtech's sales to grow low-teens HoH/YoY in 2H24/2025, with gradual margin recovery (up 2.8ppt in 2H vs. 1H, up 2.2ppt in 2025). Our TP is trimmed to RMB48, based on 23.5x 2025E P/E, close to 1SD below 1-yr hist. avg., reflecting persist challenges from ongoing inventory correction of power semi in auto market and consumption downgrade pressure on ODM GPM.
認爲最壞的情況已經過去，維持買入評級。鑑於GPm的挑戰，我們已將2024/25E的盈利預期下調了73%/42%。我們預計Wingtech的銷售額將在2H24 / 2025年實現低倍數的季度同比增長，利潤逐步恢復（2H較1H增加了2.8ppt，在2025年增加了2.2ppt）。我們的目標價將調整爲人民幣48元，基於23.5倍2025年E的市盈率，接近1年平均水平以下1個標準差，反映了來自汽車市場電源半導體持續庫存調整和ODm GPm消費降級壓力的持續挑戰。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。