SHAANXI COAL INDUSTRY(601225):COAL COST CONTROL AND EFFICIENCY ENHANCEMENT BOOST STEADY EARNINGS
SHAANXI COAL INDUSTRY(601225):COAL COST CONTROL AND EFFICIENCY ENHANCEMENT BOOST STEADY EARNINGS
Comments:1H24 results in line with our forecast
1H24的業績符合我們的預測
Shaanxi Coal Industry announced its 1H14 results: Net profit attributable to shareholders fell 8.8% YoY to Rmb10.56bn (implying EPS of Rmb1.09), and recurring net profit fell 18.0% YoY to Rmb11.18bn. The decline in earnings in 1H24 was milder than we expected, mainly because the decline in coal price was relatively modest and the cost per tonne of coal also fell.
陝西煤業公佈了其1H14年度業績: 歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比下降8.8%至105.6億元人民幣(暗示每股收益爲1.09元),重複淨利潤同比下降18.0%至111.8億元人民幣。1H24年度盈利下降幅度比我們預期的要小,主要是因爲煤炭價格下降相對較小,每噸煤的成本也有所下降。
In 2Q24, net profit attributable to shareholders rose 26.5% YoY and 26.9% QoQ to Rmb5.90bn, and recurring attributable net profit fell 8.4% YoY and rose 8.9% QoQ to Rmb5.83bn.
在2Q24季度,歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比增長26.5%,環比增長26.9%至59億元人民幣,重複歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比下降8.4%,環比上升8.9%至58.3億元人民幣。
Comments:
注：
1) Output increased slightly. In 1H24, commercial coal output rose 2.78% YoY to 86.41mnt, and sales volume rose 2.3% YoY to 131.6mnt, with sales volume of self-produced coal up 0.7% YoY to 83.39mnt. In 2Q24, commercial coal output rose 4.0% YoY and 8.4% QoQ to 44.95mnt. We expect sales volume to rise HoH in 2H24, given rising coal inventories.
1) 產量略有增加。1H24年度商業煤炭產量同比增長2.78%至8641.1萬噸,銷售量同比增長2.3%至1.316億噸,其中自產煤銷售量同比增長0.7%至8359.1萬噸。2Q24年度商業煤炭產量同比增長4.0%,環比增長8.4%至4495萬噸。我們預計,隨着煤炭庫存的增加,銷售量將在2H24上半年有所上升。
2) Coal prices declined at a modest pace. In 1H24, the selling price of self-produced coal fell 9.5% YoY to Rmb538.2/t, and the ASP of 6,000kcal thermal coal in Yulin, Shaanxi fell 16.8% YoY.
2) 煤炭價格下降的幅度適度。1H24年度自產煤銷售價格同比下降9.5%至538.2元/噸,陝西榆林地區6000千卡的熱煤平均售價同比下降16.8%。
3) Cost reduction. In 1H24, the full cost per tonne of raw coal fell 5.5% or Rmb16.38 YoY to Rmb281.4, with outsourcing business fee per tonne, fuel fee and related taxes and surcharges down Rmb3.07, Rmb3.04 and Rmb5.88 YoY.
3) 成本降低。1H24年度原煤單位全成本同比下降5.5%或16.38元至281.4元,其中外協業務費用單位成本、燃料費及相關稅費與附加同比分別下降3.07元、3.04元和5.88元。
4) Investment income in 1H24 fell Rmb281mn YoY to Rmb932mn. Gains and losses from fair value changes rose Rmb2.02bn YoY to -Rmb641mn, with gains and losses from changes in fair value of privately offered funds and securities investment financial assets at - Rmb956mn and Rmb305mn. As the firm's investment in Salt Lake becomes a long-term equity investment, we expect fluctuations in its fair value to narrow further.
4) 1H24年度投資收益同比下降2.81億元至9.32億元。公允價值變動溢利同比上升20.2億元至-6.41億元,其中私募基金及證券投資金融資產公允價值變動溢利和有擔保證券投資重分類計入損益的公允價值變動溢利分別爲-9.56億元和3.05億元。由於該公司對鹽湖的投資成爲長期股權投資,預計其公允價值的波動將進一步縮小。
5) Shaanxi Coal proposes interim dividend. The firm plans to distribute a cash dividend of Rmb1.09 (tax included) per 10 shares to shareholders, totaling Rmb1.06bn in cash, equal to 10% of the attributable net profit in 1H24.
5）陝西煤業提議派發中期股息。公司計劃向股東派發每10股人民幣1.09元（含稅）的現金股息，總計現金爲人民幣10.6億元，相當於1H24可歸屬淨利潤的10%。
Trends to watch
需要注意的趨勢
The sales structure of thermal coal and chemicals supports the firm's coal prices. Coal demand growth has been stable YTD, and demand for chemical coal still has growth momentum. Data from sxcoal.com shows that chemical coal consumption grew 12% YoY in 1H24. Given the firm's long-term contractual sales of thermal coal and the high proportion of chemical coal, we think fluctuations in coal prices will be manageable, supporting stable earnings.
動力煤和化學品銷售結構支撐公司的煤炭價格。煤炭需求增長保持穩定，化學煤需求仍有增長動力。sxcoal.com的數據顯示，1H24年化學煤消費同比增長12%。考慮到公司的長期合同銷售動力煤和化工煤的高比例，我們認爲煤炭價格的波動將是可控的，支撐穩定的盈利能力。
Strong ability to obtain resources; high-quality resources to support long-term growth. As of end-2023, the firm had 10.44bn tonnes of recoverable coal reserves with a recoverable life of more than 70 years, and most of its resources are located in high-quality coal mining areas such as northern Shaanxi.
強大的資源獲取能力；高質量的資源支持長期增長。截至2023年底，公司擁有104.4億噸可採煤儲量，可採壽命超過70年，大部分資源位於陝北等優質煤礦開採區域。
In 1H24, the firm accelerated approval of wellfields in Xiaohaotu No.1 and the western exploration area. Looking ahead, we believe the firm's excellent operating conditions and ample resources will support its sustainable development in the long term.
在1H24年，公司加快了對小號土1號和西部勘探區的開採井田的審批工作。展望未來，我們相信公司優良的經營條件和充足的資源將支持其長期可持續發展。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
We cut our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts 10% and 6% to Rmb21.5bn and Rmb22.6bn, considering factors such as our lower coal price assumptions. The stock is trading at 10.8x 2024e and 10.3x 2025e P/E. Given the cost advantage and strong resource capability, we maintain our OUTPERFORM rating and target price, implying 12.2x 2024e and 11.6x 2025e P/E, implying 13% upside.
考慮到我們較低的煤炭價格假設等因素，我們將2024年和2025年的盈利預測下調10%和6%至人民幣215億元和人民幣226億元。該股票目前的2024年預期市盈率爲10.8倍，2025年預期市盈率爲10.3倍。基於其成本優勢和強大的資源能力，我們維持「跑贏大市」評級和目標價，對應2024年預期市盈率12.2倍和2025年預期市盈率11.6倍，上漲空間13%。
Risks
風險
Demand recovery and/or project progress disappoint.
需求復甦和/或項目進展令人失望。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
