ZHONGGU LOGISTICS(603565):RESULTS IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS; DIVIDEND ATTRACTIVE
ZHONGGU LOGISTICS(603565):RESULTS IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS; DIVIDEND ATTRACTIVE
Gross margin fell QoQ in 2Q24 due to falling freight rates; revenue from the land transportation business maintained stable growth in 1H24. In 2Q24, the traditional slack season, the average PDCI freight rate fell 14.4% YoY and 8.2% QoQ, and gross margin shrank 7.6ppt QoQ to 9.0% in 2Q24. In 1H24, revenue from the water transport business fell 9.61% YoY to Rmb4,548mn, and revenue from the land transport business rose 7.32% YoY to Rmb1,191mn.2Q24 results in line with our expectations
二季度業績符合我們預期。
Zhonggu Logistics announced its 1H24 results: Revenue fell 6.6% YoY to Rmb5,739mn; attributable net profit was Rmb757mn, implying EPS of Rmb0.36 (-14.9% YoY). In 2Q24, revenue was Rmb2.95bn (-4.9% YoY and +6.0% QoQ), and attributable net profit stood at Rmb368mn (+31.8% YoY and -5.3% QoQ).
中谷新物流宣佈其2024年上半年業績：營業收入同比下降6.6％至人民幣5739百萬；歸屬淨利潤爲人民幣757百萬，每股收益爲人民幣0.36（同比下降14.9％）。2024年第二季度，營業收入爲人民幣29.5億元（同比下降4.9％，環比增長6.0％），歸屬淨利潤爲人民幣3.68億元（同比增長31.8％，環比下降5.3％）。
Excluding impact from asset disposal and delayed government subsidies, recurring attributable net profit in 2Q24 dropped 23.0% YoY and 50.7% QoQ. The company's earnings are in line with our expectations, and the earnings decline was mainly due to YoY and QoQ declines in freight rates.
除了資產處置和政府補貼拖欠的影響之外，2024年第二季度的可再發生的歸屬淨利潤同比下降23.0％，環比下降50.7％。公司的盈利符合我們的預期，盈利下降主要是由於貨運價格同比和環比下降。
Gross margin fell QoQ in 2Q24 due to falling freight rates; revenue from the land transportation business maintained stable growth in 1H24. In 2Q24, the traditional slack season, the average PDCI freight rate fell 14.4% YoY and 8.2% QoQ, and gross margin shrank 7.6ppt QoQ to 9.0% in 2Q24. In 1H24, revenue from the water transport business fell 9.61% YoY to Rmb4,548mn, and revenue from the land transport business rose 7.32% YoY to Rmb1,191mn.
由於運價下降，2024年第二季度毛利率環比下降；2024年上半年陸運業務的營收保持穩定增長。2024年第二季度，傳統淡季，平均PDCI貨運價格同比下降14.4％，環比下降8.2％，毛利率較上季度下降7.6個百分點，至9.0％。2024年上半年，水上運輸業務的營收同比下降9.61％至人民幣4548百萬，陸運業務的營收同比增加7.32％至人民幣1191百萬。
Trends to watch
需要注意的趨勢
Upbeat on earnings growth in 2H24 driven by the nearing peak season for domestic container shipping and YoY improvement in foreign-trade vessel rents. Since the beginning of 3Q24, freight rates have risen from previous lows. In addition, domestic shipping capacity has gradually flowed out amid high freight rates for foreign trade. We expect domestic shipping capacity to decline further in 4Q24. We are upbeat on freight rates in the peak season, and expect domestic trading business earnings to improve HoH in 2H24.
看好2024年下半年盈利增長，受國內集裝箱運輸旺季臨近和外貿船舶租金同比改善的推動。自2024年第三季度初以來，運價已從之前的低點上漲。此外，隨着對外貿運費率高企，國內運力逐漸流出。我們預計國內運力將在2024年第四季度進一步下降。我們對旺季運價表示樂觀，並預計2024年下半年國內貿易業務盈利將同比改善。
In addition, as the firm's shipping capacity flows out to the foreign trade market, where freight rates have significantly improved YoY, we expect earnings of the foreign trade business to increase in 2H24, and full-year earnings to rise slightly YoY.
此外，隨着公司的運力流向運費率大幅改善的外貿市場，我們預計2024年下半年外貿業務的盈利將增加，全年盈利將略有同比增長。
Limited increase in shipping capacity; shift from bulk shipping to container shipping to boost long-term demand. The domestic container shipping market has hardly seen any new shipping capacity YTD, and we think shipping capacity previously flowed to foreign trade is unlikely to return to domestic trade amid improving freight rates for foreign trade. On the demand side, we expect the shift from bulk shipping to container shipping to boost demand in the long term.
運力增長有限；從散雜貨運輸轉向集裝箱運輸促進長期需求增長。截至今年，國內集裝箱運輸市場幾乎沒有看到新的運力增長，我們認爲之前流向外貿的運力不太可能在外貿運費率改善的情況下返回國內貿易。從需求端看，我們預計從散雜貨運輸向集裝箱運輸的轉變將長期促進需求增長。
According to the Port Statistical Yearbook, the containerization rate of cargo throughput at China's ports in 2021 (about 20.5% vs. over 50% in 2021) was still much lower than that in developed countries (more than 50% in 2021), and the proportion of containerized coal transport was even lower at a low single-digit rate. We believe containerized transport, as a standardized and intensive mode of transport, will continue to gain market share.
根據港口統計年鑑，2021年中國港口貨物吞吐量的集裝箱化率（約20.5%，較2021年的50%以上）仍遠低於發達國家（2021年50%以上），集裝箱化煤炭運輸的比例甚至更低，僅爲個位數。我們認爲集裝箱運輸作爲一種標準化和集約化的運輸模式，將繼續獲得市場份額。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
We keep our earnings forecasts unchanged. The stock is trading at 10.1x 2024e and 9.3x 2025e P/E. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating and target price of Rmb11.5, implying 13.9x 2024e and 12.8x 2025e P/E, offering 38.2% upside.
我們保持盈利預測不變。股票交易於2024年預期市盈率10.1倍和2025年預期市盈率9.3倍。我們維持我們的跑贏大市評級和目標價11.5元人民幣，意味着2024年預期市盈率13.9倍和2025年預期市盈率12.8倍，提供38.2%的上行空間。
The firm has ample cash on hand. As of2 June 30, it had cash of approximately Rmb10.87bn (including wealth management products and structured deposits), with net cash of nearly Rmb3.4bn. Assuming a 70% dividend ratio for 2024, the current stock price translates to dividend yield of 7.0% and 7.5%. If dividend payout ratio remains the same as in 2023 at 88%, the implied 2024e divided yield would be 8.8%.
該公司手頭有充足的現金。截至6月30日，其現金約爲108.7億元人民幣（包括理財產品和結構性存款），淨現金接近34億元人民幣。假設2024年股利支付率爲70%，根據當前股價計算，股息收益率爲7.0%和7.5%。如果股利支付率與2023年保持相同，爲88%，則2024年預計的股息收益率將達到8.8%。
Risks
風險
Foreign trade transport capacity returns; domestic economic growth slows.
外貿運力回升，國內經濟增長放緩。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。