Earnings Miss: HP Inc. Missed EPS By 15% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Earnings Miss: HP Inc. Missed EPS By 15% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
HP Inc. (NYSE:HPQ) came out with its third-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at US$14b, although statutory earnings per share came in 15% below what the analysts expected, at US$0.65 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
惠普公佈了上週的第三季度業績,我們想看看業務情況如何以及行業預測師對該公司在發佈報告後的看法。收入與預測相符,爲140億美元,儘管每股收益低於分析師預期的15%,爲0.65美元。根據此結果,分析師已經更新了他們的盈利模型,我們想知道他們是否認爲公司前景發生了重大變化,還是一切如常。出於這個目的,我們收集了最新的財務預測,以了解分析師對明年的預期。
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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from HP's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$55.5b in 2025. This reflects a modest 4.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 7.7% to US$3.18. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$55.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.27 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
考慮到最新的結果,惠普的15位分析師的共識預測爲2025年的收入爲555億美元。相比過去12個月,這反映了4.0%的收入增長。預測法定每股收益將增長7.7%,達到3.18美元。在此報告之前,分析師預測2025年的收入爲558億美元,每股收益爲3.27美元。因此,看起來最近的業績結果後整體情緒有所下降-收入預測沒有發生重大變化,但分析師對每股收益的預測進行了小幅下調。
The consensus price target held steady at US$36.04, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic HP analyst has a price target of US$42.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$30.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
分析師們一致認爲,他們對較低預測盈利不會導致可預見的未來股價下跌,因此一致的目標價格保持在36.04美元。然而,僅關注一個目標價格可能不明智,因爲一致預期目標實際上是分析師目標價格的平均值。因此,一些投資者喜歡查看各種估計值的範圍,以確定對公司的估值是否存在不一致意見。最樂觀的惠普分析師給出了每股42.00美元的目標價格,而最悲觀的給出了每股30.00美元。對於該股票存在不同看法,但根據我們的觀點,估計範圍並不足以暗示這種情況是無法預測的。
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the HP's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that HP is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 3.2% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 1.5% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 7.7% annually for the foreseeable future. So although HP's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.
這些預測很有趣,但在比較預測與惠普過去業績以及同行業同行時,畫一些更廣泛的輪廓可能會更有用。這些預測中有一件事很明顯,那就是預計惠普未來的增長將快於過去,預計營業收入將在2025年底前顯示出3.2%的年化增長。如果實現,這將比過去五年的1.5%年度下降要好得多。將這與整個行業的分析師預測進行比較,整個行業的營業收入預計將以每年7.7%的速度增長。因此,儘管預計惠普的營業收入增長將改善,但預計仍慢於行業。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$36.04, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
最重要的是,分析師下調了每股收益的預測,顯示出這些結果後市情緒明顯下降。好消息是,營業收入預測沒有發生重大變化,儘管預測表明它們將表現不如整個行業。共識目標價維持在36.04美元,最新預測不足以對其目標價產生影響。
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for HP going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
繼續這樣的思路,我們認爲企業的長期前景比明年的收益更重要。在Simply Wall St,我們對惠普到2026年的分析師預測提供全面的範圍,您可以在我們的平台上免費查看這些預測。
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for HP (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.
那風險呢?每家公司都存在風險,我們發現了惠普的3個警示信號(其中一個有點令人擔憂!),您應該了解一下。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。