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FINANCIAL STREET PROPERTY(01502.HK):STEADY BUSINESS EXPANSION; BUT MARGIN PRESSURE MAY CONTINUE DOWNGRADE TO "ACCUMULATE"

FINANCIAL STREET PROPERTY(01502.HK):STEADY BUSINESS EXPANSION; BUT MARGIN PRESSURE MAY CONTINUE DOWNGRADE TO "ACCUMULATE"

金融街地產(01502.HK): 業務穩步擴張;但利潤壓力可能繼續下降,降級爲「累計購入」
08/30

Downgrade to "Accumulate" with TP at HK$2.40. We believe the margin pressure on Financial Street Property (the "Company") will last for a longer time, which should dampen its profitability. We revise down the Company's 2024F-2026F EPS by 10.1%/ 12.0%/ 13.4% to RMB0.346/ RMB0.380/ RMB0.420, respectively, which represents a CAGR of 7.0% during 2023-2026F. We revise down our TP to HK$2.40 by applying 6.5x 2024F PER, and downgrade our investment rating to "Accumulate".

將評級下調爲「積累」,目標價爲2.40港元。我們認爲金融街地產(以下簡稱「公司」)的利潤壓力將持續較長時間,這將抑制其盈利能力。我們將公司2024F-2026F的每股收益預測下調10.1% /12.0% /13.4%至人民幣0.346/人民幣0.380/人民幣0.420,分別對應2023-2026F期間以7.0%的複合年增長率增長。我們通過應用6.5倍2024F市盈率將目標價下調至2.40港元,並將投資評級下調爲「積累」。

Revenue growth maintained momentum, but profit dampened in 1H2024. In 1H2024, the Company achieved steady growth in its total revenue, reaching RMB813.7 mn, up by 14.2%. The revenue growth was mainly driven by the increase in GFA under management. In 1H2024, the revenue from its property management services recorded stronger growth of 18.7% YoY, reaching RMB632.0 mn. However, on the other side, we observed a squeezed gross profit margin and some cost rigidity, which dampened the Company's profit in 1H2024. The gross profit margin declined by 2.1 ppts YoY to 15.7% in 1H2024. The shareholders' net profit declined by 10.8% YoY to RMB63.5 mn. The Company declared no interim dividend, but guided the full-year dividend payout ratio should be stable at the 50% level.

營收增長保持勢頭,但1H2024利潤受阻。在1H2024期間,公司總營收穩步增長,達到8.137億元,同比增長14.2%。營收增長主要由管理面積增加推動。在1H2024期間,其物業管理服務的營收同比增長18.7%,達到6.32億元。然而,在另一方面,我們觀察到毛利潤率受到壓縮以及一些成本僵化,這抑制了公司在1H2024期間的利潤。毛利潤率在1H2024期間同比下降2.1個百分點,降至15.7%。股東淨利潤同比下降10.8%,至人民幣6350萬元。公司宣佈不派發中期股息,但指導全年股息支付比例應穩定在50%水平。

Newly-acquired projects brought margin pressure. One main reason for the margin squeeze was that fierce market competition brought thinner profit. The Company reached steady growth in GFA under management, reaching 43.96 mn sq.m. by the end of 1H2024. Among the newly-acquired GFA under management in 1H2024, 91.5% came from third parties, which implied relatively lower fees due to fierce competition. In addition, most of the non-residential projects were single owners, such as governments or enterprises, who lowered their management fee budget this year, considering the relatively weaker macroeconomic. We expect the Company's margin pressure may continue for the next two years.

新收購項目帶來了利潤壓力。導致利潤被減少的一個主要原因是激烈的市場競爭帶來了較低的利潤。公司在1H2024期間的管理面積穩步增長,達到4396萬平方米。在1H2024期間,來自第三方的新管理面積佔比91.5%,這意味着由於激烈的競爭而相對較低的費用。此外,大部分非住宅項目是單一所有者,例如政府或企業,考慮到相對較弱的宏觀經濟狀況,他們降低了今年的管理費用預算。我們預計公司的利潤壓力可能會在接下來的兩年內持續存在。

Net operating cash inflow in 1H2024. The Company recorded net cash inflow of RMB36.45 mn in 1H2024. We believe the improvement in cash collection should help the Company to maintain an abundant cash reserve in the future.

1H2024期間的淨經營現金流入。公司在1H2024期間錄得淨現金流入人民幣3645萬元。我們相信現金收回的改善將有助於公司在未來保持充裕的現金儲備。

Catalysts: 1) More quality office projects acquired in the short term; 2) improvement in profitability; and 3) turnaround from the loss in its catering services. Downside risks: 1) Slower-than-expected growth in GFA under management; 2) weaker office demand; and 3) unexpected labor cost hikes.

催化劑:1)短期內收購更多高質量辦公項目;2)盈利能力改善;和3)餐飲服務由虧損轉盈。下行風險:1)受管理GFA增長速度不及預期;2)辦公需求疲軟;和3)勞動力成本意外上漲。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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