ANHUI CONCH CEMENT(914.HK):NOT ATTRACTIVE ENOUGH THOUGH WE EXPECT BETTER EARNINGS FOR 2H
ANHUI CONCH CEMENT(914.HK):NOT ATTRACTIVE ENOUGH THOUGH WE EXPECT BETTER EARNINGS FOR 2H
The net profit of Anhui Conch Cement dropped 48% YoY to RMB3,486m in 1H24 mainly on the significant contraction of unit gross profit. We expect its earnings to surge 48% HoH in 2H24 as we expect higher unit gross profit following the rise in cement prices starting from June. We increase our 2024-26 earnings forecasts by 2-4% mainly on increases in unit profit assumptions. Nevertheless, we maintain our HOLD rating as the valuations of its shares are not attractive enough. The cement prices of its main market eastern China have been relatively weak compared to other regions.
海螺水泥的淨利潤在1H24下降了48%，達到348600萬人民幣，主要是由於單位毛利潤的大幅收縮。我們預計其2H24的收益將會同比增長48％，因爲我們預計6月份後水泥價格上漲將會帶來更高的單位毛利潤。我們將2024-26年的盈利預測上調了2-4％，主要是由於單位利潤預期的增加。儘管如此，鑑於其股票的估值不夠吸引人，我們仍然保持持有評級。與其他地區相比，其主要市場東部中國的水泥價格相對較弱。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Sales volume of cement and clinker of the company decreased 3% YoY in 1H24, better than the 10% YoY fall of the whole market. However, the ASP of cement and clinker dropped 21% YoY, much worse than the 7% YoY fall in the national average price. The implementation of peak load shifting production along the lower bank of Yangtze River was not good. The clinker occupancy was high and the cement price was depressed in its main market eastern China.
該公司的水泥和熟料銷售量在1H24年同比下降了3%，好於整個市場的10%的同比下降。然而，水泥和熟料的平均銷售價格同比下降了21%，遠遠低於全國平均價格的7%的同比下降。長江下游的尖峯負荷調整生產的實施情況不佳，熟料佔用率較高，水泥價格在其主要市場東部中國低迷。
Hence, the unit gross profit of cement and clinker dropped 36% YoY to RMB52/tonne despite 16% YoY fall in unit cost.
因此，儘管單位成本下降了16％，水泥和熟料的單位毛利潤同比下降了36％，達到52元/噸。
Looking ahead, we expect the company's earnings to surge 48% HoH in 2H24 mainly on the expansion on unit profit. We now assume the company's gross profit per tonne of cement and clinker to improve to RMB68/tonne in 2H24. We also assume the sales volume to increase by 21% HoH in 2H24 on seasonality
展望未來，我們預計公司的收益將在2H24年同比增長48％，主要是由於單位利潤的擴張。我們現在假設公司水泥和熟料的每噸毛利潤將在2H24年提高到68元/噸。我們還假設銷售量將在2H24年同比增長21％，主要是由於季節性因素。
We increase our 2024-26 earnings forecasts by 2-4% mainly on increases in assumptions for unit gross profit. Despite this, the company's shares are not attractive enough at current level with dividend yield just 5.1-6.2% for 2024- 26E. The cement prices in its main market eastern China are also likely to remain weak compared to other regions.
我們將2024-26年的盈利預測上調了2-4％，主要是由於單位毛利潤的增加。儘管如此，該公司的股票在當前水平上吸引力不夠，2024-26年的股息收益率只有5.1-6.2％。其主要市場東部中國的水泥價格也可能在其他地區相比表現疲弱。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Higher-than-expected cement and clinker price
水泥和熟料價格高於預期
Lower-than-expected thermal coal price
動力煤價格低於預期
Valuation
估值
We lift our target price from HK$16.98 to HK$17.7. Our target price is the average of 9x 2024E P/E (10 year average) and 0.49x 2024E P/B (down from 0.57x previously). The latter is derived from the P/B vs ROE regression of its peers. Our new target price is equal to 9.8x 2024E P/E.
我們將目標價從HK$16.98調高至HK$17.7。我們的目標價是2024年預期市盈率乘以9倍（十年平均值）和2024年預期市淨率乘以0.49倍（下降自之前的0.57倍）的平均值。後者是根據其同行業公司的市淨率與roe回歸得出的。我們的新目標價等於2024年預期市盈率的9.8倍。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。