DPC DASH(1405.HK):PRUDENCE GUIDANCE WITH SOLID FUNDAMENTALS
DPC DASH(1405.HK):PRUDENCE GUIDANCE WITH SOLID FUNDAMENTALS
1H24 results were inline, but the underlying is good (positive SSSG, OP margin improvement, etc.). Going into 2H24E, while the NP margin guidance has been raised to about 2%, we are slightly more optimistic, supported by: 1) positive SSSG in Jul 2024, 2) a surge in the number of members, 3) robust dine-in sales in the new growth markets, 4) accelerated store expansion, 5) more machines for store-level automation, and 6) more targeted and efficient marketing, etc.
1H24的業績與預期相符，但基本面良好（銷售SSSG呈正增長，運營利潤率改善等）。進入2H24E，儘管NP利潤率指導上調至約2%，我們仍持稍微樂觀的態度，支持因素包括：1）2024年7月銷售SSSG呈正增長，2）會員人數激增，3）新增長市場內堂食銷售強勁，4）門店擴張加速，5）更多門店自動化設備，以及6）更加精準高效的營銷等。
The old markets were slightly under pressure, but more than offset by the robust new markets, hence the margins continued to improve. SSSG was a small negative in Beijing and Shanghai, which might lead to certain operating deleverage. However, we need not to be worried because the SSSG is still very robust in the new markets. In fact, average monthly sales per store in new markets reached RMB 380k in 1H24, which has already surpassed the level in Beijing and Shanghai. Moreover, according to management, out of the 42 stores recently opened, more than 18 stores have already achieved breakeven, where their payback period is less than 9 months. Therefore, overall restaurant-level OP margin increased to 14.5% in 1H24, from 14.0% in 2H23 and 13.5% in 1H23.
儘管舊市場面臨一定壓力，但新市場的強勢表現超過了預期，所以利潤率持續改善。北京和上海的SSSG有小幅負增長，可能導致一定的運營槓桿作用。然而，我們並不需要擔心，因爲新市場的SSSG仍然非常強勁。事實上，新市場每家門店月均銷售額已達到380,000元人民幣，已經超過了北京和上海的水平。此外，根據管理層的說法，最近開業的42家門店中，超過18家門店已經實現盈虧平衡，在不到9個月的時間內回本。因此，整體餐廳運營利潤率在1H24達到14.5%，高於2H23的14.0%和1H23的13.5%。
Management has raised its FY24E NP margin target, but we are relatively more confident. Despite the tough industry environment, we are still confident that DPC Dash can continue to deliver solid sales growth in 2H24E, supported by: 1) positive SSSG in Jul 2024 and the positive guidance (management expects SSSG to stay positive in both 3Q24E/ 4Q24E), 2) a surge in the number of loyalty members by 78% YoY to 19.4mn in 1H24, which could further drive volume growth as these members all have a higher purchase frequency, 3) non-delivery mix is low in the new markets and delivery services can be re-opened whenever certain growth is needed, and 4) store expansion acceleration in 1H24. By expecting a similar level of NP margin in 2H24, vs in 1H24, management is actually raising its NP margin target in FY24E to around 2% (up from 1% to 1.5%), but we are slightly more confident as we see various positives like: 1) further ramp up of the new stores in new markets, 2) excellent staff cost control in 1H24, even with extra hiring and training of staff for all the new stores in FY24E, 3) introduction of more automation machines at the store level, and 4) more precise and targeted marketing already in place.
管理層提高了FY24E的NP利潤率目標，但我們相對更有信心。儘管行業環境嚴峻，我們仍然相信DPC Dash能夠在2H24E實現穩健的銷售增長，原因包括：1）2024年7月銷售SSSG呈正增長，並且有正面的指引（管理層預計3Q24E和4Q24E的SSSG仍將保持正增長），2）1H24會員人數同比增長78%，達到19.4萬人，這將進一步推動成交量增長，因爲這些會員的購買頻率更高，3）新市場中非外賣訂單佔比較低且在需要增長時可以重新開放外賣服務，4）1H24門店擴張加速。管理層預計2H24的NP利潤率與1H24相當，實際上將FY24E的NP利潤率目標提高至約2%（從1%到1.5%），我們略微更爲有信心，因爲我們看到諸如：1）新市場新門店進一步提速，2）1H24優秀的人員成本控制，即使針對FY24E的所有新門店都進行了額外招聘和培訓，3）門店級別的自動化設備引入，以及4）更精準定位的營銷已經到位等各種積極因素。
Maintain TP of HK$ 81.20, based on 1.7x FY25E P/S (unchanged). The counter is trading at 1.4x FY25E P/S, 54% higher than peers' average of 0.9x. But it is still attractive, in our view, given the 34% sales CAGR during FY23-26E. As the stock is going to be included in the stock connect programme since Sep 2024, the broadening of the investor base should be a benefit to the Company, and hence we have turned more optimistic.
維持81.20港元的目標價，基於1.7倍FY25E市銷率（持平）。該股票的交易市銷率爲1.4倍FY25E，比同行平均0.9倍高出54%。但在我們看來，由於在FY23-26E期間銷售額年均增長率爲34%，仍具吸引力。由於該股將於2024年9月起被納入股票通連接計劃，擴大投資者群體應該對公司有利，因此我們的態度更加樂觀。
Store expansion in FY24E remains on track. The growth of net new store openings has been accelerated (from 31% in FY23 to 36% in 1H24), and the company has already achieved 95%+ of the 240 new stores target in FY24E. For FY25E/ 26E, management is guiding a 300 to 350 new stores target.
FY24E的店鋪擴張計劃仍然按計劃進行。淨新增店鋪的增長已經加速（從FY23的31%到1H24的36%），公司已經完成了FY24E全年新增240家店鋪的目標的95%以上。對於FY25E/26E，管理層預計新增300萬億至350家店鋪。
1H24 results inline with positive profit alert but the underlying is solid. Sales increased by 48% YoY to RMB 2.04bn while net profit rose by 25% YoY to RMB 11mn, both inline with the pre-announced profit alert. The increase in staff costs (+30% YoY) was better than CMBI est. but that was kind of offset by higher-than- expected rental expenses (+40% YoY). SSSG was at 3.6% in 1H24, which is still an impressive number as it was achieved under a high base (+8.8% in 1H23) and already outperformed peers by a mile. The daily sales per store was at RMB 13,515, up 10% YoY in 1H24, and continued to improve from the RMB 12,842 in 2H23 and RMB 12,275 in 1H23. Noted that some investors might be worried by the 5% drop in ASP to RMB 83.6 in 1H24. However, this was only due to the increase in non-delivery sales contribution, to 46% (vs 64% in 1H23), as many of the new stores were too busy to cope with the dine-in orders and had suspended the delivery services. In fact the level of promotion was limited and under control as GP margin remained fairly stable, at 72.7% in 1H24 (vs 72.4% in 1H23).
1H24的業績與積極盈利預警相符，但基本面穩固。銷售額同比增長48%，達到20.4億元人民幣，而淨利潤同比增長25%，達到1100萬元人民幣，均與預先公佈的盈利預警一致。員工成本增加了30%（同比），好於民銀環球估計，但高於預期的租金支出增加了40%（同比），這在一定程度上抵消了員工成本的增長。1H24的可比店銷售同比增長3.6%，這仍然是令人印象深刻的數字，因爲它是在一個高基數（1H23增長8.8%）下取得的，並已經大幅跑贏同行。每家店的日均銷售額爲13,515萬元人民幣，1H24同比增長10%，並繼續保持從2H23的12,842萬元人民幣和1H23的12,275萬元人民幣的改善。值得注意的是，一些投資者可能會對1H24 ASP下降5%至83.6萬元人民幣感到擔憂。然而，這僅是由於非外送銷售貢獻度增加，佔46%（與1H23的64%相比），因爲許多新店太忙，無法滿足堂食訂單，因此已經暫停了外送服務。事實上，推廣程度有限且受控制，因爲1H24的毛利率保持相對穩定，爲72.7%（與1H23的72.4%相比）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。