BYD(1211.HK):SOLID SALES EARNINGS OUTLOOK DESPITE MIXED 2Q
BYD(1211.HK):SOLID SALES EARNINGS OUTLOOK DESPITE MIXED 2Q
Maintain BUY. We raise FY25E net profit by 10% to RMB36.2bn by lifting sales volume forecast and cutting R&D expenses. We also raise FY25E sales volume forecast to 4.3mn units, as BYD's new PHEV models are more competitive than we had expected. We believe its solid earnings quality could continue in FY25E.
維持買入。我們將FY25E的淨利潤上調10%，至人民幣362億，提高銷售量預測並削減研發支出。我們還將FY25E銷售量預測提升至430萬輛，因爲比亞迪的新插電混動車型比我們預期的更具競爭力。我們認爲其穩固的盈利質量有望在FY25E繼續。
Mixed 2Q24: GPM miss, R&D & government grants beat. BYD's 2Q24 GPM narrowed 3.2ppts QoQ to 18.7% (we estimate auto segment GPM to be 22.4%), lower than our prior forecast. We attribute such miss mainly to a less-than-expected supplier cost reduction. The GPM miss was offset by a QoQ decline in R&D and QoQ increase in government grants, which led to an in-line net profit of RMB9.1bn in 2Q24. We are of the view that BYD's 1H24 earnings quality remained high, as it accelerated PP&E's depreciation and only capitalized 3% of its total R&D investment in 1H24.
2Q24業績表現不一：GPm未達預期，研發和政府補助超過預期。比亞迪2Q24的GPm環比縮小3.2個百分點至18.7%（我們估計汽車部門的GPm爲22.4%），低於我們之前的預測。我們認爲這種偏差主要是由於供應商成本降低不及預期。GPm未達預期被研發環比下降和政府補助環比增加所抵消，導致2Q24淨利潤達到91億元人民幣。我們認爲比亞迪1H24的盈利質量保持強勁，因爲它加速了PP&E的折舊，並且在1H24僅對其總研發投入的3%進行資本化。
2H24 and FY25 outlook. We raise our FY24E sales volume forecast from 3.70mn units to 3.84mn units, assuming that BYD is not to hit 4mn units by sacrificing margins, although it has such capabilities to do so. We expect GPM in 2H24 to improve 0.4ppts HoH amid greater economies of scale, based on our sales assumption. We cut FY24E R&D expenses by RMB2bn following the figure in 2Q24 and considering fewer personnel required for AI-powered autonomous driving training. We also revise up FY24E government grants and VAT refunds by RMB4bn. Accordingly, we raise our FY24E net profit estimate by 10% to RMB36.2bn, or a net profit per vehicle of RMB9,400.
2H24和FY25展望。我們將FY24E的銷售量預測從370萬輛上調至384萬輛，假設比亞迪不會通過犧牲利潤率達到400萬輛，儘管它有這樣的能力。我們預計在2H24，由於規模經濟效應增加，GPm將在環比中提升0.4個百分點，基於我們的銷售假設。根據2Q24的數據，考慮到AI驅動的自動駕駛培訓所需的人員較少，我們削減了FY24E的研發支出20億元人民幣。我們還上調了FY24E的政府補助和增值稅退款40億元人民幣。因此，我們將FY24E的淨利潤預估提升10%，至362億人民幣，或者每輛車淨利潤爲9400元。
BYD's new PHEVs with its DM-i 5.0 technologies appear to be more competitive than we had expected. Therefore, we expect solid sales growth to continue in FY25E (4.3mn units on our estimates), despite its slower-than- expected sales growth for premium models. We expect higher contribution from overseas sales and premium models to sustain GPM in FY25E despite the prolonged price war. We project R&D expense ratio (as % of revenue) to drop to 5.7% in FY25E from 6.0% in FY24E and 6.6% in FY23. That, along with the top-line growth, could continue to lift net margin in FY25E. We project FY25E net profit to rise 26% YoY to RMB45.7bn with solid earnings quality (same R&D capitalization and depreciation ratio as FY24).
比亞迪的新插電混動車型搭載的Dm-i 5.0技術比我們預期的更具競爭力。因此，我們預計其銷售增長將在FY25E繼續保持（根據我們的估計爲430萬輛），儘管其高端車型的銷售增長低於預期。我們預計境外銷售和高端車型的貢獻將在FY25E繼續支撐GPm，儘管價格戰持續時間較長。我們預計FY25E的研發支出佔營業收入的比例將從FY24E的6.0%和FY23的6.6%下降至5.7%。這，再加上營收增長，有望在FY25E持續提升淨利率。我們預計FY25E的淨利潤將同比增長26%，達到457億人民幣，保持穩固的盈利質量（研發資本化和折舊率與FY24相同）。
Valuation/Key risks. We maintain BUY rating and target price of HK$262, based on 15x our FY25E EPS (prior 20x FY24E). We roll over our valuation to the next year as we see higher visibility for FY25 and lower our target valuation multiples amid macro uncertainties. Key risks to our rating and target price include lower sales and/or margins than our expectation, as well as a sector de-rating.
估值/主要風險。我們維持買入評級和262港元的目標價，基於我們對FY25E每股收益的15倍估值（之前是FY24E的20倍）。考慮到宏觀不確定性，我們將估值滾動到下一年，並降低了我們的目標估值倍數。我們評級和目標價的主要風險包括銷售和/或利潤率低於預期，以及板塊評級下調。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。