INTRON TECH(1760.HK):1H24 BELOW ON WEAKER MARGIN;LOWER ESTIMATES ON NEAR-TERM INDUSTRY HEADWINDS
INTRON TECH(1760.HK):1H24 BELOW ON WEAKER MARGIN;LOWER ESTIMATES ON NEAR-TERM INDUSTRY HEADWINDS
segment, new energy/automation & connectivity/cloud server revenue delivered strong growth 16%/13%/25% YoY, while body control/safety/powertrain segments were weak at +1%/-9%/-26% YoY. We are encouraged by solid growth from new energy segment, given rising client penetration and market share gains on new projects. 1H24 GPM came in at 15.9% (vs. 20.6% in 1H23), reflecting pricing pressure along the auto supply chain. 1H24 R&D expense ratio was lower at 7.6% (vs. 8.9% in 1H23), and mgmt. expected a normalized level of R&D spending in FY24E.Intron Tech reported 1H24 revenue of RMB 2.84bn (+8% YoY) and net profit of RMB 97.7mn (-37% YoY), both below our/consensus estimates, mainly due to the GPM decline to 15.9% (-4.7ppts YoY) on intensified competition and price pressure from auto OEM customers. Looking ahead to 2H24E, mgmt. guided net profit margin to recover HoH on new order wins in new energy/ADAS and overseas customer expansion. We trim FY24-25E EPS by 43-49% to factor in the 1H24 miss, margin pressure and weaker topline growth. Despite near-term industry headwinds, we think the current valuation of 5.4x/3.2x FY24/25E P/E is attractive compared with A/H share peers. Our new TP of HK$ 2.35 is based on a lowered 10x FY24E P/E for near-term industry headwinds (vs prior 12x P/E).
英恒科技報告了1H24的營業收入爲人民幣284億元（+8%同比增長），淨利潤爲人民幣97.7百萬元（-37%同比下降），均低於我們/共識估計，主要是由於GPm下降至15.9%（-4.7個百分點同比下降），原因是汽車OEm客戶的競爭加劇和價格壓力。展望2H24E，管理層指導淨利潤率將在新能源/自動駕駛輔助系統（ADAS）訂單的增加和海外客戶擴張帶來的信號下回升。我們下調了FY24-25E每股收益43-49%，以反映1H24的營收不及預期，利潤壓力和較弱的營收增長。儘管近期面臨行業頭風，我們認爲目前5.4x/3.2x的FY24/25E市盈率相比A/H股同行是有吸引力的。我們的新目標價爲2.35港元，基於近期行業困境的10倍FY24E市盈率（之前爲12倍市盈率）。
Upcoming catalysts include rising ADAS penetration and NEV client share gains.
未來的催化劑包括自動駕駛輔助系統（ADAS）滲透率提升和新能源汽車客戶份額增加。
1H24 earnings below expectations due to margin weakness. By
1H24利潤低於預期，原因是利潤率疲軟。
segment, new energy/automation & connectivity/cloud server revenue delivered strong growth 16%/13%/25% YoY, while body control/safety/powertrain segments were weak at +1%/-9%/-26% YoY. We are encouraged by solid growth from new energy segment, given rising client penetration and market share gains on new projects. 1H24 GPM came in at 15.9% (vs. 20.6% in 1H23), reflecting pricing pressure along the auto supply chain. 1H24 R&D expense ratio was lower at 7.6% (vs. 8.9% in 1H23), and mgmt. expected a normalized level of R&D spending in FY24E.
按部門劃分，新能源/自動化及互聯雲服務器營收同比增長16%/13%/25%，而車身控制/安全/動力總成部門同比增長+1%/-9%/-26%。我們爲新能源板塊的強勁增長感到鼓舞，隨着新項目的增加，客戶滲透率和市場份額也在提高。1H24 GPm爲15.9%（1H23爲20.6%），反映了整個汽車供應鏈的價格壓力。1H24研發費用佔營收比率爲7.6%（1H23爲8.9%），管理層預計FY24E的研發支出將維持在正常水平。
2H24E outlook: new orders and customer wins to offset industry
2H24E展望：新訂單和客戶贏得以抵消行業風險。管理層預計，在中國新能源汽車出口和混合動力電動汽車需求的帶動下，英恒科技的營收增長在2H24E將保持穩健，而在短期內利潤壓力可能持續存在，因爲下游客戶的定價壓力。管理層也預期境外市場的擴張將成爲FY25/26E的主要增長驅動力，此前在香港和歐洲開設辦公室後。總體而言，我們估計FY24E英恒科技的營收/淨利潤將同比增長+9%/-29%。
headwinds. Mgmt. expects Intron's topline growth to remain solid in 2H24E driven by China NEV exports and HEV demand, while margin pressure might persist in near term given downstream client pricing pressure. Mgmt. also expected overseas market expansion to serve as key growth driver in FY25/26E, after recent office expansion in Hong Kong and Europe. Overall, we estimate Intron's revenue/net profit to grow +9%/-29% YoY in FY24E.
預計利潤將在FY25E逐漸恢復；維持買入評級。我們下調FY24-25E每股收益43-49%，以反映1H24的弱結果和2H24E的利潤壓力。我們的新目標價爲2.35港元，基於降低的10倍FY24E市盈率（之前爲12倍FY24E市盈率）。以5.4x/3.2x FY24/25E市盈率交易，我們認爲英恒科技的估值吸引人，因爲我們預計新訂單的獲得和海外業務的擴張將推動利潤在FY25/26E恢復。
Expect margin to recover gradually in FY25E; Maintain BUY. We trim
預計利潤將在FY25E逐漸恢復；維持買入評級。我們下調FY24-25E每股收益43-49%，以反映1H24的弱結果和2H24E的利潤壓力。我們的新目標價爲2.35港元，基於降低的10倍FY24E市盈率（之前爲12倍FY24E市盈率）。以5.4x/3.2x FY24/25E市盈率交易，我們認爲英恒科技的估值吸引人，因爲我們預計新訂單的獲得和海外業務的擴張將推動利潤在FY25/26E恢復。
FY24-25E EPS by 43-49% to reflect weak 1H24 results and margin pressure in 2H24E. Our new TP of HK$2.35 is based on a lowered 10x FY24E P/E (vs. previous 12x FY24E P/E). Trading at 5.4x/3.2x FY24/25E P/E, we think Intron's valuation is attractive, as we expect new order wins and overseas expansion will drive margin recovery in FY25/26E.
我們預計新訂單的獲得和海外業務的擴張將推動利潤在FY25/26E恢復。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。