MEITUAN(3690.HK):AN UPBEAT 2Q WITH ENHANCED FULL-YEAR EARNINGS OUTLOOK
MEITUAN(3690.HK):AN UPBEAT 2Q WITH ENHANCED FULL-YEAR EARNINGS OUTLOOK
Meituan reported (28 Aug) its 2Q24 results: revenue was RMB82.3bn, up 21.0% YoY, 2% higher than both our estimate and Bloomberg consensus estimate.
美團於8月28日發佈了2024年第二季度的業績:營收達到了823億元人民幣,同比增長21.0%,比我們的估計和彭博共識高出2%。
Adjusted net profit during 2Q24 reached RMB13.6bn, 20%/32% better than our estimate/consensus, due to both better-than-expected operating profit (OP) generated from core local commerce (CLC) business, aided by subsidy optimization for food delivery (FD) business and more benign-than-expected competition for in-store business, and narrower-than-expected loss generated from new business, aided by better-than-expected operating efficiency improvement. Although facing macro headwinds, leveraging the loyal and sticky core user base, Meituan is able to drive more cross-sell opportunities for Instashopping and in-store business, and is able to continuously optimize subsidies to improve profitability, which in our view has enhanced full-year earnings growth outlook. Also, Meituan is enhancing shareholder return: it has repurchased 3.6% of total shares outstanding YTD, and unveiled a new US$1bn share repurchase program, which should provide support for valuation. Our DCF-based TP is unchanged at HK$157.8; maintain BUY.
由於核心本地商業(CLC)業務的營業利潤(OP)表現優於預期,外賣(FD)業務的補貼優化以及實體店業務的競爭態勢不及預期,以及新業務負面影響較小,輔以優於預期的運營效率提升,2024年第二季度調整後的淨利潤達到了136億元人民幣,較我們的預測和共識分別增長20%和32%。儘管面臨宏觀經濟風險,但依靠忠誠且黏性強的核心用戶群體,美團能夠爲Instashopping和實體店業務帶來更多交叉銷售機會,並且可以持續優化補貼以改善盈利能力,這在我們看來增強了全年盈利增長的前景。此外,美團正在增加股東回報:今年以來已回購總流通股的3.6%,並宣佈了一個新的10億美元的股票回購計劃,這應該會爲估值提供支撐。基於DCF的目標價爲157.8港元,維持買入評級。
Better core business earnings growth outlook despite macro
儘管面臨宏觀經濟風險,核心業務的盈利增長前景更好。
headwinds. CLC segment revenue/OP was RMB60.7bn/15.2bn in 2Q24, up 19%/37% YoY, 1%/24% better than consensus. Segmental operating margin was also 4.2/4.5ppt better than our forecast/consensus, thanks to: 1) lower delivery related costs as percentage of revenues of food delivery and Meituan Instashopping businesses; 2) a change of revenue mix; and 3) lower transacting user incentives as percentage of revenues. Leveraging the sticky core user base, Meituan is able to create more cross-sell opportunities, and could further optimize user subsidies, which should enhance full-year earnings growth outlook amid macro headwinds. We lift 24E CLC OP forecast by 15% to RMB49.2bn. For 3Q24, we forecast CLC segment to ink revenue/OP of RMB68.7bn/13.7bn, up 19%/36% YoY, which translates into an OPM of 20.0% (3Q23: 17.5%).
核心本地商業(CLC)業務在2024年第二季度的營收達到了607億元人民幣,營業利潤爲152億元,同比增長19%和37%,比共識分別高出1%和24%。營業利潤率也比我們的預測和共識高出4.2/4.5個百分點,這要歸功於:1)外賣和美團Instashopping業務的交付相關成本佔收入的比例降低;2)收入結構調整;3)交易用戶激勵佔收入的比例降低。美團依靠穩定的核心用戶群體,能夠創造更多交叉銷售機會,並且可以進一步優化用戶補貼,這應該會在宏觀經濟風險下增強全年盈利增長的前景。我們將2024年全年的核心本地商業營業利潤預測上調15%,達到492億元人民幣。對於2024年第三季度,我們預計核心本地商業業務的營收和營業利潤分別爲687億元和137億元人民幣,同比增長19%和36%,對應的營業利潤率爲20.0%(2023年第三季度爲17.5%)。
New initiatives are seeing continuous operating efficiency
新的舉措正在持續改善運營效率。
improvement. Revenue generated from new initiatives was RMB21.6bn in 2Q24, up 29% YoY, driven by robust revenue growth of Xiaoxiang Supermarket and Kuailv, which was 4/5% ahead of our forecast/consensus estimates. Operating loss for the segment was RMB1.3bn, narrower than our/consensus estimates of RMB2.0bn/2.1bn, implying a loss margin of 6.1% (2Q23: loss margin of 31.0%), driven by better-than-expected earnings generation from both retail business and other business (such as bike sharing) on favourable seasonality. Operating loss generated from Meituan Select was RMB2.0bn, narrowed from RMB5.0bn/RMB2.9bn in 2Q23/1Q24, and was better than our estimate at RMB2.1bn. In 3Q24, we forecast Meituan Select to see further loss reduction to RMB1.8bn (3Q23: RMB5.0bn), and other new businesses to sustain a breakeven level in a relatively low season. On a combined basis, we forecast total new businesses' segmental operating loss of RMB1.8bn (3Q23: RMB5.1bn) in 3Q24E. Although we have accounted for the impact for international expansion of FD business into the Middle East in the coming 4Q, full-year total operating loss of new initiatives of RMB8.1bn will likely be still better than our previous forecast of RMB8.9bn. Our 2024E non-GAAP net profit forecast for Meituan is lifted by 9% to RMB42.1bn.
新的舉措帶來的收入於2Q24達到216億元,同比增長29%,其中小象超市和快旅的收入增長超過我們的預測/共識估計的4/5%。該業務板塊的營業虧損爲13億元,窄於我們/共識預測的20億元/21億元,表明虧損率爲6.1%(2Q23虧損率爲31.0%),這得益於零售業務和其他業務(如共享單車)在有利季節性的情況下的盈利超出預期。美團精選的營業虧損爲20億元,較2Q23/1Q24的50億元/29億元有所縮小,並好於我們的21億元的估計。在3Q24,我們預測美團精選的虧損將進一步減少至18億元(3Q23:50億元),其他新業務將在相對低季節保持盈虧平衡。綜合計算,我們預測新的業務板塊在3Q24E的營業虧損總額爲18億元(3Q23:51億元)。儘管我們已經考慮了FD業務進軍中東地區對營業利潤的影響,但新的舉措全年的總營業虧損81億元可能仍會好於我們之前的89億元的預測。我們對美團2024E非GAAP淨利潤的預測上調9%至421億元。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。