SHENGYI TECH(600183):SOLID 1H24 EARNINGS;HIGH COPPER PRICE TO HAVE MODEST IMPACT IN NEAR TERM
SHENGYI TECH(600183):SOLID 1H24 EARNINGS;HIGH COPPER PRICE TO HAVE MODEST IMPACT IN NEAR TERM
growth and margin expansion. Shengyi's CCL/Prepreg sales increased by 20.7% YoY with GPM improving by 2.0ppts. PCB revenue increased by 23.5% YoY with GPM improving by 1.6ppts. Sales from server and auto markets grew; while telecom segment faced ongoing challenges due to soft investments. According to the mgmt., PCB revenue from server market accounted for 38% of the segment sales in 1H24, up ~20% from 1H23.Shengyi Tech released its 1H24 earnings. Revenue improved by 22.2% YoY/10.6% HoH to RMB9.6bn, driven by solid demand of AI servers, growing auto orders and inventory restocking. During the same period, GPM improved to 21.6% (vs. 19.3%/19.2% in 1H/2H23), benefiting from improving utilization and a favorable product mix towards high-margin products. Consequently, NP increased by 68.0% YoY/53.1% HoH to RMB932mn. 1H24 revenue/NP accounted for 47%/43% of our FY24E forecast. From a sequential perspective, Q2 revenue/NP were up 26%/76% YoY and 18%/38% QoQ, while GPM increased to 21.8% (vs. 21.3%/18.9% in 1Q24/2Q23). The stock is currently trading at 1SD below 5-year historical avg. Given copper price is likely to maintain at its highs, we think Shengyi's CCL business will gradually recover.
盛羿科技發佈了其2024年上半年的收入。營業收入同比增長22.2%，環比增長10.6%，達到96億元人民幣，得益於人工智能服務器的強勁需求，不斷增長的汽車訂單和庫存補充。在同一時期，毛利率提高至21.6%（上半年/下半年2023年分別爲19.3%/19.2%），得益於提高利用率和有利的產品結構向高利潤產品轉變。因此，淨利潤同比增長68.0%，環比增長53.1%，達到9.32億元人民幣。2024年上半年的營業收入/淨利潤佔我們預測的全年比例分別爲47%/43%。從同比角度來看，第二季度營業收入/淨利潤同比增長26%/76%，環比增長18%/38%，而毛利率提高至21.8%（相比於2024年第一季度/2023年第二季度的分別爲21.3%/18.9%）。該股目前交易價低於5年曆史均價1個標準差。考慮到銅價可能會保持在高位，我們認爲盛羿的CCL業務將逐漸恢復。
Maintain BUY with TP unchanged at RMB26.41.
維持買入，目標價不變，人民幣26.41元。
By segment, both CCL and PCB segments delivered double-digit
按業務板塊劃分，CCL和PCb業務板塊均實現了兩位數的增長和利潤率擴張。盛羿的CCL/預浸料銷售同比增長20.7%，毛利率提高了2.0個百分點。PCb業務營業收入同比增長23.5%，毛利率提高了1.6個百分點。來自服務器和汽車市場的銷售增長；而電信板塊由於軟投資而面臨持續挑戰。根據管理層稱，2024年上半年，PCb業務從服務器市場的營業收入佔該板塊銷售額的38%，較2023年上半年增長約20%。
growth and margin expansion. Shengyi's CCL/Prepreg sales increased by 20.7% YoY with GPM improving by 2.0ppts. PCB revenue increased by 23.5% YoY with GPM improving by 1.6ppts. Sales from server and auto markets grew; while telecom segment faced ongoing challenges due to soft investments. According to the mgmt., PCB revenue from server market accounted for 38% of the segment sales in 1H24, up ~20% from 1H23.
CCL業務可能會在銅價上漲的情況下恢復。300萬噸倫敦金屬交易所銅價格在5月份曾一度飆升至每噸超過1萬美元，然後在7月底回落至每噸9000美元。目前的價格是每噸9300美元。我們認爲銅價波動的影響在上半年較小（盛羿的CCL毛利率比2019年下半年提高了1.2個百分點）。根據最近的渠道調查，下游在第二季度開始出現一些材料價格調整。如果銅價保持在目前水平，我們預計盛羿的CCL平均銷售價格可能會上升。我們預測公司整體毛利率在2024/25E年將爲21.8%/23.3%（每年分別上升2.5個百分點和1.2個百分點），這得益於人工智能（盛羿在上半年實現了大規模出貨）、上漲的CCL平均銷售價格和更好的消費者情緒。
CCL business is likely to recover on elevated copper price. 3M LME
銅價上漲後CCL業務有望復甦。300萬噸倫敦金屬交易所銅價格曾於5月份飆升至每噸1萬美元以上，然後在7月下旬回落至每噸9000美元。當前價格爲每噸9300美元。我們認爲銅價波動對上半年的影響較小（盛羿的CCL毛利率比2019年下半年提高了1.2個百分點）。根據最近的渠道檢查，從第二季度開始，下游出現了一些材料價格調整。如果銅價保持在當前水平，我們預計盛羿的CCL平均售價可能會上漲。我們預測公司整體毛利率在2024/25E年將上升至21.8%/23.3%（每年分別上升2.5和1.2個百分點），得益於人工智能的銷售貢獻增加（盛羿在上半年實現了大規模出貨）、CCL平均售價的增長以及更好的消費者情緒。
copper prices peaked above US$10k/t in May before retreating to US$9k/t by late-July. Current price is US$9.3k/t. We believe the impact from copper price volatility was mild in 1H (Shengyi's CCL GPM was up 1.2ppt from 2H23). Based on recent channel check, the downstream saw some material price adjustment starting from 2Q. If copper price maintains at current level, we expect Shengyi's CCL ASP is likely to increase. We project the company's overall GPM to be 21.8%/23.3% in 2024/25E (up 2.5ppts and 1.2ppts each year), on higher sales contribution from AI (Shengyi achieved mass shipment in 1H), rising CCL ASP and better consumer sentiment.
銅價上漲後，CCL業務有望恢復。300萬噸倫敦金屬交易所銅價於5月份一度上漲至每噸1萬美元以上，然後在7月下旬回落至每噸9000美元。當前價格爲每噸9300美元。我們認爲銅價波動對上半年的影響較小（盛羿的CCL毛利率比2019年下半年提高了1.2個百分點）。根據最近的渠道檢查，從第二季度開始，下游出現了一些材料價格調整。如果銅價保持在當前水平，我們預計盛羿的CCL平均售價可能會上漲。我們預計公司的整體毛利率在2024/25E年將分別上升至21.8%和23.3%（每年分別上升2.5個百分點和1.2個百分點），這得益於人工智能的銷售貢獻增加（盛羿在上半年實現了大規模出貨）、CCL平均售價的增長以及更好的消費者情緒。
Maintain BUY with unchanged TP at RMB26.41, implying a ~10%
保持買入評級，目標價不變，人民幣26.41元，暗示約10%的
premium to its 5-year historical avg. forward P/E, considering its AI upside. 2024/25E NP forecasts are slight adjusted by 1%/-2%. The stock is currently trading at 1SD below 5-year historical avg. of 26x. Maintain BUY. Potential risks include copper price volatility and weaker-than-expected demand recovery.
溢價於其5年曆史平均前期市盈率，考慮到其人工智能潛力。2024/25E淨利潤預測略有調整，分別爲1%/-2%。該股目前交易價較5年曆史平均的26倍標準差低。維持買入。潛在風險包括銅價波動和需求復甦低於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
