Haidilao International Holding Ltd.(06862.Hk):Improving Table Turnover
Haidilao International Holding Ltd.(06862.Hk):Improving Table Turnover
Haidilao's 1H24 revenue increased by 14% YoY to Rmb21.5bn, core operating profit increased by 13% YoY, and net profit decreased by 10% YoY to Rmb2bn, primarily due to the impact of changes in net foreign exchange gain and loss and the termination of the additional value-added tax deduction preferential policy in mainland China. We maintain our 2024E EPS forecast of Rmb0.89, 2025E forecast of Rmb0.97 and 2026E forecast of Rmb1.03. Considering the consumption sentiment, we lower our valuation and lower the target price from HK$25.4 to HK$17, with 39% upside, we maintain a Buy rating.
海底撈上半年收入同比增長14%至人民幣215億元，核心營業利潤同比增長13%，淨利潤同比下降10%至人民幣20億元，主要是受淨外匯收益和損失變動以及中國內地增值稅附加稅額度優惠政策終止的影響。我們維持了2024年的每股收益預測Rmb0.89、2025年的每股收益預測Rmb0.97和2026年的每股收益預測Rmb1.03。考慮到消費情緒，我們下調了估值並將目標價從HK$25.4降至HK$17，上行空間39%，我們維持買入評級。
Steady store opening and increased table turnover rate. In 1H24, Haidilao opened 11 new restaurants and closed 43 stores, bringing the total number of stores to 1,343, of which 1,320 located in mainland China and 23 located in China's Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan region. We expect the growth rate of new stores in 2024 will be in mid-single digits. The table turnover rate increased from 3.3x in 1H23 to 4.2x in 1H24.
穩定的店鋪開業和提高的桌子週轉率。上半年海底撈開設了11家新餐廳，關閉了43家店鋪，總店鋪數量達到1343家，其中1320家位於中國內地，23家位於中國的香港、澳門和臺灣地區。我們預計2024年新增店鋪的增長率將在個位數中達到。桌子週轉率從1H23的3.3倍提升至1H24的4.2倍。
Franchise stores and new brands will lead to new growth curve. The company launched the franchise model in March and one franchise store was opened in 1H24. We expect the number to increase in 2H24. Meanwhile, the company initiated the "Pomegranate Plan" in 1H24, aiming to encourage the incubation and development of more new catering brands. The company had a total of five innovation and entrepreneurship projects in operation in 1H24, such as "YEAH QING BBQ", "XIAOHAI HUOGUO", etc., covering a wider price segments and more consumers.
特許經營店鋪和新品牌將引領新的增長曲線。公司於3月推出了特許經營模式，並在1H24開設了一家特許經營店鋪。我們預計2H24特許經營店鋪的數量將增加。同時，公司在1H24啓動了「石榴計劃」，旨在鼓勵孵化和發展更多新的餐飲品牌。公司在1H24開展了五個創新創業項目，如「經典青配燒烤」、「小海火鍋」等，涵蓋了更廣泛的價格段和更多的消費者。
Interim dividend. Haidilao declared an interim dividend of Rmb0.358 or HK$0.391 per share, with a payout ratio of 94%, and a dividend yield ratio of 3% based on the closing price of HK$12.26 on August 27.
中期分紅。海底撈宣佈派發每股人民幣0.358或每股港元0.391的中期股息，派息比率爲94%，基於8月27日收盤價HK$12.26計算的股息收益率爲3%。
Maintain Buy. We are optimistic about the company's table turnover rate which outperforms its peers and the increase in shareholder returns. We maintain our Buy rating.
維持買入評級。我們對公司的桌子週轉率表現優於同行和股東回報的增加持樂觀態度。我們維持買入評級。
Risks: Table turnover rate may fall short of expectations. Rising personnel costs could lead to decline in profit margin.
風險：桌子週轉率可能低於預期。人員成本上升可能導致利潤率下降。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。