TRIP.COM(9961.HK)2Q24 BEAT:STILL A BENEFICIARY OF CONSUMPTION PATTERN CHANGE
TRIP.COM(9961.HK)2Q24 BEAT:STILL A BENEFICIARY OF CONSUMPTION PATTERN CHANGE
TCOM's recorded a strong 2Q24 adj. net profit of RMB5,829m (+45% YoY), exceeding market expectations on decent margin expansion. While this set of results reflected travel demand in China remained intact even overall consumer sentiment was weak, TCOM's profitability was also well maintained amid intensifying competition. We expect TCOM would continue to perform resiliently in 3Q24 and more likely in 4Q24. Outbound travel and its overseas platform Trip.com could remain the key earnings drivers in 2H24, and we expect its continuous investments on its platform and AI would further strengthen its core competency. Reiterate BUY as we view the market has been overly pessimistic on the travel market.
攜程網錄得了2024年第二季度淨利潤人民幣582,900萬（同比增長45%），超出市場預期的基礎上，合理的利潤率擴張。儘管整體消費者情緒疲軟，但本組成績反映出中國的旅遊需求仍然完好無損，攜程網在激烈的競爭中也能保持良好的盈利能力。我們預計攜程網在2024年第三季度將繼續表現出彈性，並更有可能在第四季度更加堅韌。出境旅遊及其境外平台攜程網可能仍然是下半年的關鍵收益驅動因素，我們預計其對平台和人工智能的不斷投資將進一步增強其核心競爭力。重申買入，因爲我們認爲市場對旅遊市場的看法過於悲觀。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
2Q24 earnings beat on rather strong margins. While 2Q24 revenue slightly tapered QoQ in terms of growth and only grew 14% YoY to RMB12,788m, TCOM's non-GAAP net income of RMB4,985m (+45% YoY) is a rather strong beat. While equity in income of affiliates of RMB1,089m (2Q23: RMB236m) boosted the adj. NP, the key driver of earnings beat would still be TCOM's underlying business growth, as non-GAAP OPM reached 33.1% (+2.2ppts) thanks to strong operating leverage with careful spending. Overall, the 2Q24 results reflected that TCOM managed to still grow despite macro and industry- specific headwinds, such as high base in 2023 due to pent-up demand and lower room rates vs 2023 as hotel room supply increases in China.
2024年第二季度盈利超過預期，憑藉較強的利潤率。儘管2024年第二季度營收環比增長略有放緩，僅增長14%（同比增長45%）達到人民幣1,278,800萬，但攜程網非通用會計淨收入人民幣4,985,000萬是一個相當強大的超出預期。儘管關聯公司收益合計人民幣1,089,000萬（2023年第二季度：2,360萬）提振了調整後淨利潤，盈利超額的關鍵仍將是攜程網的基礎業務增長，非通用會計運營利潤率達到33.1%（+2.2個百分點），得益於高效的運營槓桿和謹慎的支出。總體而言，2024年第二季度的結果反映出攜程網儘管面臨宏觀和行業特定的逆風，如2023年因需求釋放而產生的高基數和中國酒店房間供應增加導致的低房價，但仍能實現增長。
Demand during summer holiday still strong to support 3Q24 growth. While 3Q24 may continue to suffer from a high base, we expect TCOM would still be able to enjoy above-industry growth, particularly in outbound travel. The capacity of outbound flights has resumed to around 80% in 3Q24, which could be a rather notable YoY improvement vs 2023, and could draw more travelers from domestic travel to outbound travel, allowing TCOM to enjoy better margins due to higher take rate in this segment. For domestic travel, TCOM still observes rather strong demand, as consumers continued to prioritise spending on travel. Overall, TCOM's resiliency has been evidenced by flattish per capita GMV growth on its platform, and mgt. is confident that 4Q24 could see a normalised growth as high base effect due to pent-up demand no longer applies.
暑期需求仍強勁，有助於支持2024年第三季度增長。儘管第三季度可能繼續受到高基數的影響，我們預計攜程網仍將能夠享受到行業以上的增長，特別是在出境旅遊方面。出境航班的容量在2024年第三季度恢復到約80%，這與2023年相比是一個相當顯著的同比改善，可能會吸引更多的旅客從國內旅遊轉向出境旅遊，使得攜程網能夠享受到更好的利潤空間，因爲這一領域的承包費率較高。對於國內旅遊，攜程網仍然觀察到相當強的需求，因爲消費者繼續把旅遊支出放在首位。總體而言，攜程網的韌性體現在其平台上的人均GMV增長基本持平，管理層對2024年第四季度能夠看到正常增長充滿信心，因爲由於需求釋放所致的高基數效應不再適用。
Trip.com platform remains a strong driver. We expect Trip.com would remain a strong contributor to the group, as it achieved >50% YoY revenue growth in 1H24 and accounted for 10.5% of total revenue already. In 2H24, we expect high growth would remain as TCOM continues to invest on this platform to lure customers. Also, inbound travels to China, accounting c.25% of its GMV, could also drive its growth in 2H24, as China already recorded 153% YoY increase in foreign visitors in 1H24, according to China National Immigration Administration.
攜程網平台仍然是一個強有力的推動因素。我們預計攜程網將繼續成爲集團的一個強大貢獻者，因爲它在2024年上半年實現了超過50%的營業收入增長，並已佔據總營業收入的10.5%。在2024年下半年，我們預計高增長將繼續保持，因爲攜程繼續投資於該平台吸引客戶。此外，赴中國的入境旅遊，佔其GMV的約25%，也可能推動其在2024年下半年的增長，因爲據中國國家移民管理局統計，中國已錄得1H24外國遊客的153%年同比增長。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Downside risks include: (1) weak recovery of tourism, especially outbound; (2) policies on outbound travels may tighten unexpectedly; (3) keen competition from direct booking platforms; and (4) higher spending to defend market share.
下行風險包括：（1）旅遊業復甦乏力，尤其是出境旅遊；（2）對出境旅遊的政策可能出人意料地收緊；（3）來自直接預訂平台的激烈競爭；以及（4）爲保衛市場份額而增加的支出。
Valuation
估值
We slightly revise up our non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2024-26 by 0.4-2.4% after the latest 2Q24 earnings release, reflecting better-than-expected margins due to operating leverage and strong cost control.
我們在最新的2Q24業績發佈後，將2024-26年非GAAP淨利潤預測上調了0.4-2.4%，這反映了由於運營槓桿效應和嚴格控制成本導致的利潤率好於預期。
Reiterate BUY as we believe TCOM has demonstrated strong GMV growth vs peers, and disciplined cost control. Its share price has retreated since 3Q24 due to fear of weakening GMV and intensified competition among OTAs, but we believe the worry is overdone. After the correction, we view the valuation still attractive.
我們重申買入評級，因爲我們認爲攜程網在GMV增長方面顯示出與同行業相比的強勁勢頭，同時還具備紀律嚴明的成本控制能力。儘管由於擔心GMV的下滑和OTA之間的競爭加劇，其股價自3Q24以來有所回落，但我們認爲這種擔憂是過度的。在此次修正後，我們認爲該股票的估值仍然具有吸引力。
ADR: Our target price of US$63.3 is based on SOTP and a USD/RMB rate of 7.20. We use DCF to derive the value of the core business first, followed by the public investments held by the company. Our TP is equivalent to 24x/21x non- GAAP 2024/25E diluted EPS.
ADR：我們的目標價爲63.3美元，基於SOTP和7.20的美元/人民幣匯率。我們首先使用DCF法確定核心業務的價值，然後計算公司持有的公共投資的價值。我們的目標價相當於2024/25E攤薄後每股收益的24倍/21倍。
H-share: Our target price of HK$496 is based on SOTP and a USD/HKD rate of 7.84. We use DCF to derive the value of the core business first, followed by the public investments held by the company. Our TP is equivalent to 24x/21x non- GAAP 2024/25E diluted EPS.
H股：我們的目標價爲496港元，基於SOTP和7.84的美元/港元匯率。我們首先使用DCF法確定核心業務的價值，然後計算公司持有的公共投資的價值。我們的目標價相當於2024/25E攤薄後每股收益的24倍/21倍。
Our DCF is based on the following key assumptions: (1) WACC of 11.8%, and (2) terminal growth rate of 4.5%.
我們的DCF模型基於以下關鍵假設：（1）加權平均資本成本爲11.8％，和（2）終端增長率爲4.5％。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。