WEIBO CORP(9898.HK):2Q24 PROFIT BEAT;COMMITTED STRATEGIES TO AMPLIFY SOCIAL EDGES
WEIBO CORP(9898.HK):2Q24 PROFIT BEAT;COMMITTED STRATEGIES TO AMPLIFY SOCIAL EDGES
Inline US$438m total revenue dropped by -1% YoY or increased by 1% YoY on constant currency basis. Core online ad dropped by -3% YoY or -1% YoY on c.c. basis. Improved 43.9% D/M ratio and 28.8% adj. NPM both demonstrated Co.'s solid executions of high quality user, content and operational strategies. We deem Co. will continue to execute core user, content, monetisation and operational strategies to amplify their social edges while intensified competition on cautious and ROI- oriented ad spending amid tepid macro will weigh on Co.'s near to medium-term ad recovery. Maintain HOLD but cut our TP to US$8.20/ HK$64.0.
淨利潤爲43800萬美元，總收入同比下降1%或同比在恒定貨幣基礎上增長1%。核心在線廣告同比下降3%，或在恒定貨幣基礎上下降1%。提高的43.9%的D/m比例和28.8%的調整後淨利率都表明公司對高質量用戶、內容和運營策略的堅實執行。我們認爲公司將繼續執行核心用戶、內容、變現和運營策略，以擴大他們的社交優勢，而在低迷的宏觀環境中，謹慎和回報率導向的廣告支出的加劇競爭將對公司的短期和中期廣告復甦產生負面影響。維持持有評級，但將目標價下調爲8.20美元/64.0港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Committed core strategies. We deem Co. will continue to prioritise high quality user engagement, content ecosystems enhancement (core IP and industry-based vertical investments) and operating efficiency improvement on intensified competition with cautious and ROI-oriented ad budget spending amid lukewarm domestic macro. Co. will amplify their social edges by leveraging their hot trends, IP marketing solutions and celebrity & KOL resources to strengthen their competitiveness. Thus, we slightly lower our FY2024-2026E core online ad revenue forecasts by 1-2% to reflect lower ad sentiments for key advertisers especially discretionary ones. We largely kept our FY2024-2026E adj. net profit forecasts unchanged with decreased opex assumptions to reflect their disciplined cost initiatives.
堅持核心戰略。我們認爲公司將繼續優先考慮高質量用戶參與度、內容生態系統 enhancement（核心IP和基於行業的垂直投資）和運營效率提升，在充滿競爭的環境中，謹慎和回報率導向的廣告預算支出的加劇中，特別是在冷淡的國內宏觀環境下。公司將通過利用熱門趨勢、IP營銷解決方案和名人和KOL資源來增強他們的競爭力。因此，我們稍微降低了我們2024-2026財年的核心在線廣告收入預測1-2%，以反映關鍵廣告客戶特別是自願性廣告客戶的較低廣告情緒。我們基本上保持了我們2024-2026財年的調整後淨利潤預測不變，降低了運營費用假設，以反映他們的成本節約舉措。
2Q24: Improved operational efficiency. Total revenue of US$438m (down -1% YoY/ up 1% YoY on constant currency), in line with consensus. Core online ad revenue dropped by -3% YoY (-1% YoY on C.C), with Non-Alibaba and Alibaba ad revenue logging -4% YoY and +21% YoY respectively. Regarding verticals, handset and auto verticals remain strong while cosmetics and personal care especially international brands kept drop YoY. VAS revenue raised 15% YoY due to launch of SVIP member pack. D/M ratio raised moderately to 43.9% with MAUs/ DAUs standing at 583m/ 256m respectively. Adj. NPM remains flattish YoY at 28.8%, beat consensus of 26.0%.
2Q24: 提高運營效率。總收入爲43800萬美元（同比下降1%，同比在恒定貨幣基礎上增長1%），符合一致預期。核心在線廣告收入同比下降3%（在恒定貨幣基礎上下降1%），非阿里巴巴和阿里巴巴廣告收入分別同比下降4%和同比增長21%。就垂直領域而言，手機和汽車垂直領域仍然強勁，而化妝品和個人護理尤其是國際品牌的同比下降。由於推出SVIP會員套餐，增值服務收入同比增長15%。D/m比例適度提高至43.9%，MAUs/ DAUs分別爲5.83億/25600萬。調整後淨利潤率同比持平，爲28.8%，擊敗了26.0%的一致預期。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Upsides: (i) macro and ad recovery; (ii) supportive policies; (iii) key advertisers' brand ad rebound; (iv) new ad products; and (v) novel monetisation modelsn Downsides: (i) marketing behaviors change of key advertisers; (ii) slower-than- expected macro and ad rebound; (iii) competition; and (iv) ADR delisting.
優勢：（一）宏觀和廣告的復甦；（二）支持性政策；（三）重要廣告商的品牌廣告反彈；（四）新的廣告產品；（五）新穎的貨幣化模式 劣勢：（一）重要廣告商的營銷行爲變化；（二）宏觀和廣告復甦速度慢於預期；（三）競爭；（四）ADR退市。
Valuation
估值
Maintain HOLD but cut our TP to US$8.2/ HK$64.0 on 5.0x (down from 6.0xpreviously) 2024E adj. EPADS.
維持持有，但將目標價調整爲8.2美元/64.0港元，基於2024年調整後的每股收益5倍（之前爲6倍）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。