GREENTOWN MANAGEMENT(9979.HK):WEAKENING DEMAND + INTENSIFYING COMPETITION WHAT IS NEXT?
GREENTOWN MANAGEMENT(9979.HK):WEAKENING DEMAND + INTENSIFYING COMPETITION WHAT IS NEXT?
Greentown Mgmt's stock price plunged 32% post-1H24 earnings, partly due to the uncertainty on strategy execution among investors following the resignation of former CEO Mr. Li Jun. More importantly, the pullback was due to revenue/net profit deceleration (8%/6% YoY vs. guidance of 20%/30%), constrained by declining client payment capacity and heightened competition. A 19% YoY drop in new contract value reflects 1) reduced land supply, 2) slow sales recovery which dampened clients' confidence in development, and 3) insufficient funds to start projects. We see low visibility of quick recovery of property sales in the near term and revise down our 2024-26E revenue expectations by 17-27% to YoY growth of 5%/9%/7%, and profit forecasts by 20-38% to YoY growth of 3%/9%/8%. However, we believe the long-term demand for PJM remains intact, given the recovery of property sales. We maintain our BUY rating with TP cut by 41% to HK$5.56, representing 10x 2024E P/E. Risk: account receivable impairment.
綠城管理控股的股價在1H24業績後暴跌32%,部分原因是因爲投資者對前CEO李軍辭職後的策略執行不確定性感到擔憂。更重要的是,回落是由營收/淨利潤放緩(8%/6%同比減少,明顯低於20%/30%的預期),受到客戶支付能力下降和激烈競爭的限制。新籤合同價值同比下降19%,反映出1)土地供應減少,2)銷售復甦緩慢導致客戶對發展信心不足,以及3)啓動項目所需的資金不足。我們認爲短期內物業銷售快速復甦的能見度較低,並將我們對2024-26E營收預期下調17-27%,同比增長5%/9%/7%,利潤預測下調20-38%,同比增長3%/9%/8%。然而,我們相信對PJm的長期需求仍然強勁,考慮到物業銷售的復甦。我們維持買入評級,目標價下調41%至HK$5.56,代表2024E市盈率爲10倍。風險:應收賬款減值。
Revenue dragged by government PJM. In 1H24, revenue increased by 8% YoY to RMB17.6bn (below the 20% target). Contract assets rose 25% YoY to RMB12bn, reflecting delays of landowner payment. Government PJM revenues declined 16% YoY, as economic weakness slowed investments and reduced payment capacity of government. Commercial PJM revenues grew 23% YoY, mainly due to the support from revenue linked to property sales, with contract sales up 14% YoY to RMB41.1bn in 1H24, significantly outperforming peers (NBS property sales -25% YoY, TOP 100 developers - 41% YoY). Construction progress-related revenues potentially declined, as developers' construction pace slowed in the current challenging environment.
營收受政府PJm拖累。在1H24,營收同比增長8%至人民幣176億(低於20%的目標)。合同資產同比增長25%至人民幣120億元,反映出土地所有者支付延遲。政府PJm營收同比下降16%,經濟疲軟導致投資減少以及政府支付能力下降。商業PJm營收同比增長23%,主要得益於與物業銷售相關的營收支持,1H24合同銷售額同比增長14%至人民幣411億元,明顯優於同行(NBS房地產銷售同比下降25%,前100開發商同比下降41%)。與開發商施工進展相關的營收可能下降,因爲開發商在當前嚴峻環境下施工速度放緩。
Weakening demand + intensifying competition. New contract value declined by 18% YoY to RMB419mn in 1H24, with SOEs/FIs/Gov./POEs down -25%,/-17%/-12%/ -9% YoY, respectively. Such decline was due to:1) SOEs: low start rates for project from LGFVs, 2) financial institutions: less problematic defaulted projects have been taken over, with more complex ones left, 3) government: less affordable housing construction needs given fiscal constraints and policy-driven inventory acquisitions, and 4) privately owned enterprises (POE): reduced land acquisition and developer confidence. However, the decline was smaller for POEs, possibly benefiting from the company's integrated light and heavy asset strategy facilitating project flow. ASP of new contract signed in 1H24 fell sharply by 19% to RMB240/sqm, indicating intensified competition. This is corroborated by a 0.5ppt YoY decrease in gross margin, with ongoing pressure expected.
需求減弱+競爭加劇。1H24新籤合同價值同比下降18%至人民幣4.19億元,其中國有企業/金融機構/政府/私營企業分別同比下降-25%/-17%/-12%/-9%。這種下降是由於:1)國有企業:地方政府融資平台的項目啓動率低,2)金融機構:被接管的問題項目較少,複雜性更大的項目留下,3)政府:鑑於財政約束和政策驅動的庫存收購,較少的可負擔住房建設需求,以及4)私營企業:減少土地購置和開發商信心。然而,私營企業的下降幅度較小,可能受益於公司的輕資產和重資產一體化策略促進項目流。1H24新籤合同的均價大幅下降19%至人民幣240元/平方米,表明競爭加劇。毛利率同比降低0.5個百分點,未來預計將面臨持續的壓力。
What is next: Without a sales upswing in Sept & Oct to boost landowner confidence, 2H revenues and contract signings may be affected. In the long term, the demand for PJM services is sustainable, even though the pace may depend on recovery of property sales, given 1) the substantial base of LGFVs projects, after grappling with land transfers and equity introductions, will ultimately opt for PJM services. 2) PJM firms will continue to innovate, offering standalone services such as design, cost control, and sales management, complementing full-process PJM. The company has already tapped into the renovation of older residential areas and will expand further. 3) Acting as a platform to integrate resources en masse is a key advantage, enabling the initiation of more underfunded projects and driving growth in PJM demand.
下一步是什麼:如果九月和十月的銷售沒有反彈,無法提振土地所有者的信心,上半年的收入和合同簽訂可能會受到影響。從長期來看,對PJm服務的需求是可持續的,儘管速度可能取決於房地產銷售的復甦,因爲1)大量的地方政府融資平台項目,在經歷了土地轉讓和股權引入後,最終將選擇PJm服務。2)PJm公司將繼續創新,提供設計、成本控制和銷售管理等獨立服務,補充全流程PJm。該公司已經進入了老舊住宅區的翻修,並將進一步擴展。3)作爲整合資源的平台是一個重要優勢,可促使更多缺乏資金支持的項目啓動,推動PJm需求增長。
Valuation. We revised down 2024-26E revenue by 17-27% to YoY growth of 5%/9%/7%, and net profit forecasts by 20-38% to YoY growth of 3%/9%/8%, to reflect the challenges mentioned above. While we think long-term demand for PJM remains, we maintain BUY rating with a TP cut of 41% to HK$5.56, representing 10x 2024E P/E.
估值。我們將2024-26年的營業收入下調了17-27%,預計同比增長率爲5%/9%/7%,淨利潤預測下調了20-38%,預計同比增長率爲3%/9%/8%,以反映上述挑戰。雖然我們認爲PJm的長期需求仍然存在,但我們維持買入評級,目標價下調41%至HK$5.56,對應2024年預測市盈率爲10倍。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
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