SINOPEC(600028):INTERIM EARNINGS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF FORECAST;ATTRACTIVE DIVIDEND YIELD
SINOPEC(600028):INTERIM EARNINGS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF FORECAST;ATTRACTIVE DIVIDEND YIELD
The company's operating profit slipped 5% YoY in 1H24, 3% below our forecast. In which, that of its refining segment dropped 38% YoY to RMB7.1bn. On top of the 13% YoY contraction in refining margin to US$6.05/bbl, the weak prices of by-products and unfavourable changes in exchange rates also worked against the company. While key chemical spreads widened a bit QoQ in 2Q24, the loss of the chemicals segment hardly improved.Sinopec's net profit grew 3% YoY to RMB37.1bn in 1H24, 4% above our forecast on higher-than-expected profit from associates and JVs. Its profits at refining and chemicals segments were actually below our forecasts. Looking ahead, we expect its earnings to drop 20% HoH in 2H24 as the recent fall in oil price is likely to pile short-term pressure on the profitability of refining and marketing segments. Despite this, we raise our 2024-26 earnings forecasts by 4-11% after post results adjustments. The company's proposed minimum payout of 65% for 2024-26 offers good downside protection. Hence, we reiterate our BUY calls and raise our target price for its H shares to HK$6.21.
中國石化的淨利潤在2024年上半年同比增長3%至371億元人民幣，超出我們預測的4%，這是由於合營公司和合資企業的利潤高於預期。雖然其煉油和化學品業務的利潤實際上低於我們的預測，但展望未來，我們預計在2024年下半年，隨着油價最近下跌，煉油和市場營銷業務的盈利能力可能會面臨短期壓力，我們預計其盈利將同比下降20%。儘管如此，在發佈業績調整後，我們將2024-2026年的盈利預測上調了4-11%。公司提議在2024年至2026年的最低分紅爲65%，這能提供很好的下行保護。因此，我們重申買入評級，並將其H股的目標價上調至6.21港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
The company's operating profit slipped 5% YoY in 1H24, 3% below our forecast. In which, that of its refining segment dropped 38% YoY to RMB7.1bn. On top of the 13% YoY contraction in refining margin to US$6.05/bbl, the weak prices of by-products and unfavourable changes in exchange rates also worked against the company. While key chemical spreads widened a bit QoQ in 2Q24, the loss of the chemicals segment hardly improved.
公司的營業利潤在2024年上半年同比下滑5%，低於我們的預測3%。其中，其煉油業務的營業利潤同比下降38%至71億元人民幣。除了煉油利潤率同比收縮13%至6.05美元/桶，副產品的價格下跌和匯率不利變動也對公司的利潤造成了壓力。雖然關鍵化學品利潤略有改善，但化學品業務的虧損幾乎沒有改善。
The company's operating profit slipped 5% YoY in 1H24, 3% below our forecast. In which, that of its refining segment dropped 38% YoY to RMB7.1bn. On top of the 13% YoY contraction in refining margin to US$6.05/bbl, the weak prices of by-products and unfavourable changes in exchange rates also worked against the company. While key chemical spreads widened a bit QoQ in 2Q24, the loss of the chemicals segment hardly improved.
公司的營業利潤在2024年上半年同比下滑5%，低於我們的預測3%。其中，其煉油業務的營業利潤同比下降38%至71億元人民幣。除了煉油利潤率同比收縮13%至6.05美元/桶，副產品的價格下跌和匯率不利變動也對公司的利潤造成了壓力。雖然關鍵化學品利潤略有改善，但化學品業務的虧損幾乎沒有改善。
We expect its earnings to drop 20% HoH in 2H24. The recent sharp fall in oil is likely to result in near-term decline in refining margin and inventory losses for downstream operations. We also assume higher cost for 2H of a year.
我們預計在2024年下半年，其盈利將同比下降20%。油價最近的急劇下跌可能導致短期內煉油利潤和下游業務的庫存損失下降。我們還預計下半年成本會增加。
Despite this, the company's H shares still offer attractive 2024-26E dividend yield of 7.6-8.0% based on its proposed minimum payout of 65%.
儘管如此，該公司的H股仍然提供2024-2026年的吸引人的股息收益率爲7.6-8.0%，基於其提議的最低分紅爲65%。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Sharp fall in oil price.
油價大幅下跌。
Lower-than-expected profitability of downstream operations.
下游-腦機營業利潤低於預期。
Valuation
估值
We lift our target price for its H shares from HK$5.73 to HK$6.21 mainly to reflect the increases in our earnings forecasts. Our target valuation is still at 6.5% average 2024-26E dividend yield.
我們將其H股的目標價從HK$5.73提升至HK$6.21，主要是爲了反映我們的盈利預測的增加。我們的目標估值仍然是在2024-26E年度平均股息收益率的6.5%。
We also raise our target price for its A shares from RMB7.63 to RMB8.00. We continue to set it based on its average 3-month A-H premium, which has narrowed from 43% to 41% since late June.
我們還將其A股的目標價從RMB7.63上調至RMB8.00。我們繼續基於其平均3個月A-H溢價進行設定，自6月底以來已經從43%縮小到41%。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
