GREENTOWN SERVICE GROUP(2869.HK):EXCEPTIONAL JOB ON BOTH GROWTH AND EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT
GREENTOWN SERVICE GROUP(2869.HK):EXCEPTIONAL JOB ON BOTH GROWTH AND EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT
Operating cash outflow amounted to RMB360m in 1H24, up from RMB143m in 1H23. This is partially due to exceptionally strong advance payments in 2H23, as shown by the 2x OCF/net profit ratio for FY23. Cash collection for same period revenue actually improved by 1ppt. Trade receivables increased by 17.8% YoY to RMB5.97bn, while impairment loss on trade receivables increased by 4.2% YoY to RMB120m. With seasonal increase of cash collection in 2H, management is confident to achieve 1x OCF/net profit ratio for FY24.Greentown Service's (GS) 1H24 revenue grew 10.6% YoY to RMB9.1bn, in line with our estimation. Basic property management revenue grew by 14.6% YoY, while consulting and community VAS revenues grew by 5.3% and 6.1% YoY, respectively. Gross margin improved by 0.7ppt to 19.2%, more than we had expected. Gross margin for all segments improved except for community VAS, which narrowed by 0.4ppt due to impact on property brokerage business. SG&A expense as % of revenue decreased by 0.6ppt, also improving by more than we had expected. As a result, net profit grew by 21.5% YoY to RMB505m, higher than the <15% growth we estimated in our preview. We lifted our 2024-26E core EPS by 11.0-11.6%, respectively, given better-than- expected margin, and raised our TP by 11.1% to HK$4.36. Management targets to achieve 20% core operating profit growth for FY24, while we remain conservative and estimate 16.9% core net profit growth for FY24E, leaving safety margin for possible account receivable impairments. We like GS' superior market expansion capability and efficiency improvement, maintain BUY rating on the stock.
綠城服務（GS）2024年上半年營收同比增長10.6%，達到91億元，與我們的預估一致。基礎物業管理收入同比增長14.6%，諮詢和社區增值服務收入分別同比增長5.3%和6.1%。毛利率提高了0.7個百分點，達到19.2%，超出我們的預期。除社區增值服務外，所有板塊的毛利率都有所改善，其中社區增值服務由於物業代理業務的影響，收縮了0.4個百分點。銷售和行政費用佔營收的比例下降了0.6個百分點，也超出我們的預期。因此，淨利潤同比增長21.5%，達到5.05億元，高於我們在預覽中預計的15%增長。考慮到較預期的利潤，我們將2024-26E核心每股收益分別上調11.0-11.6%，並將我們的目標價上調11.1%至4.36港元。管理層目標是在2024財年實現核心營業利潤增長20%，而我們保守估計2024財年核心淨利潤增長16.9%，爲可能的應收賬款減值留下了安全保障。我們喜歡綠城服務卓越的市場擴張能力和效率提升，維持對該股的買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Basic property management segment delivered steady growth, with new annual contract value amounted to RMB1.57bn, up from 1H23's RMB1.52bn, among which non-residential projects accounted for 52%, up from 1H23's 46%. Such industry leading market expansion is underpinned by GS' close cooperation with local SOEs in various key cities. For FY24, management targets to achieve RMB4bn new annualised contract value. GFA under management grew from 1H23's 415m sqm, end-2023's 449m sqm to end-1H24's 482m sqm, among which 383m sqm is residential.
基礎物業管理板塊實現了穩定增長，新的年度合同價值達到15.7億元，較2023年上半年的15.2億元增長，其中非住宅項目佔比52%，較2023年上半年的46%增長。綠城服務與各個重點城市當地國有企業的密切合作是其行業領先的市場擴張的基礎。對於2024財年，管理層的目標是實現40億元的新年化合同價值。管理的建築面積從2023年上半年的4150萬平方米增長到2023年底的4490萬平方米，再增長到2024年上半年的4820萬平方米，其中3830萬平方米爲住宅。
Operating cash outflow amounted to RMB360m in 1H24, up from RMB143m in 1H23. This is partially due to exceptionally strong advance payments in 2H23, as shown by the 2x OCF/net profit ratio for FY23. Cash collection for same period revenue actually improved by 1ppt. Trade receivables increased by 17.8% YoY to RMB5.97bn, while impairment loss on trade receivables increased by 4.2% YoY to RMB120m. With seasonal increase of cash collection in 2H, management is confident to achieve 1x OCF/net profit ratio for FY24.
2024年上半年的經營現金流出金額爲3600萬元，較2023年上半年的1430萬元增長。這部分是由於2023年下半年預付款項異常強勁，表現爲2023年全年的經營現金流量淨額與淨利潤比率爲2倍。相同期間的應收款項實際上提高了1個百分點。應收賬款同比增長17.8%，達到59.7億元，而應收賬款減值損失同比增長4.2%，達到1.2億元。隨着下半年現金回款的季節性增加，管理層有信心實現2024財年的經營現金流量淨額與淨利潤比率爲1倍。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Cash collection may continue to be under pressure given economic challenge
現金收款可能會繼續面臨經濟挑戰的壓力
Valuation
估值
Our TP is set by 13x 2025E P/E. The stock currently trades at 9.6x 2025E P/E, which we think is undemanding, given GS' double-digit earnings growth, superior market expansion, and exceptional efficiency improvement.
我們的目標價是按照2025年預期市盈率13倍來設定的。該股目前以2025年預期市盈率9.6倍交易，我們認爲這是不過分的，考慮到高盛雙位數的盈利增長、卓越的市場擴張和異常的效率改善。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
