PING AN(2318.HK):2Q NBV STABILIZED AGAINST A HIGH BASE; EXPECT TO SEE GROUP OPAT TURNAROUND
PING AN(2318.HK):2Q NBV STABILIZED AGAINST A HIGH BASE; EXPECT TO SEE GROUP OPAT TURNAROUND
Ping An reported resilient 1H24 results with NBV +11% YoY on a like-for-like basis to RMB 22.3bn, outpacing our forecast / market consensus by 3.6%/9.5%. Agency and bancassurance NBV drove up by 10.8%/17.3% YoY given a better margin to 33.0%/22.5% in 1H24, +10.5pct/+6.8pct on a like-for-like basis. 2Q NBV stabilized at RMB9.43bn against a high base pushed by FYP increase (+49.6% YoY) in 1H23. NBV margin was 24.2%, +6.5pct YoY in 1H24, offsetting -19.0% YoY FYP decline. We maintain the view on high-quality NBV growth to be driven by improving margin rather than scaling up volumes, and expect Ping An's margin expansion to progress with more productive agents and efficient bancassurance models. Group OPAT decline narrowed to -0.6% YoY in 1H24 (vs 1Q24: -3.0% YoY), backed by 1.7% YoY increase in OPAT of three core business lines to RMB 79.6bn. Looking ahead, we expect the Group OPAT to turn around in FY24, given 1) stabilized L&H OPAT underpinned by improved operating efficiency; 2) enhanced P&C UWP with evident scale-back of guarantee biz, and 3) low base of AMC and Tech OPAT in 2H23. We expect full-year Group OPAT to grow 3.9% YoY (CMBI est), laying the ground for progressive dividend growth. Interim dividend was HK$ 0.93 per share, flat to that of 1H23. Maintain BUY, with TP unchanged at HK$52.0 implying 0.6x FY24E P/EV.
中國平安報告了韌性的2024年上半年業績，NBV同比增長11%，達到223億元人民幣，超過我們的預測/市場共識3.6%/9.5%。代理機構和銀行保險業務NBV同比增長10.8%/17.3%，在2024年上半年的利潤率提高到33.0%/22.5%，同比提高了10.5%/6.8%。第二季度NBV穩定在94.3億元人民幣，高基數推高了FYP增長（同比增長49.6%）在2023年上半年。NBV利潤率在2024年上半年達到24.2%，同比增長6.5%抵消了FYP同比下降19.0%。我們認爲高質量的NBV增長將由改善利潤率而非規模擴張驅動，預計中國平安的利潤率擴張將隨着更高產能代理人和高效的銀行保險模式的推進而加快。集團OPAt下降較緩，2024年上半年同比下降0.6%（與2024年第一季度相比：同比下降3.0%），在三個核心業務線的OPAt同比增長1.7%到796億元人民幣。展望未來，我們預計集團OPAt將在2024財年逆轉，原因是：1）穩定的人壽和健康險OPAt，受到提高的運營效率的支持；2）通過顯著減少擔保業務來增強財產和意外險業務的綜合損益；3）2023年下半年資產管理和科技公司OPAt基數較低。我們預計全年集團OPAt同比增長3.9%（中國民生銀行估計），爲逐步增長的股息奠定了基礎。中期股息爲每股港元，與1H23年持平。維持買入評級，目標價保持不變，爲港元，暗示0.6倍FY24E P / EV。
Expect NBV to navigate L&H OPAT growth. Ping An L&H achieved +11% YoY rise in NBV to RMB22.3bn in 1H24, implying a stable 2Q24 figure at RMB9.43bn. We see this result as a mix of: 1) margin expansion with total NBV margin +6.5pct to 24.2% in 1H24; 2) highly productive agent force as NBV per agent/month +36% YoY to RMB 9,785 with marginally lifted agent scale to 340k (vs 1Q24: 333k); and 3) restated 1H23 EV-related figures based on end-2023 long-run investment return (4.5%) and risk discount rate (9.5%) assumptions. L&H OPAT to S/H grew 0.7% YoY to RMB 54.7bn, enhanced by better operating variances (+10.2%) and investment service results (+12.1%) on a like-for-like basis in 1H24. CSM release dropped 5.5% YoY to RMB36.5bn, primarily dragged by the new business CSM -12.6% YoY to RMB23.7bn. Looking ahead, we expect the deviation of NBV and new business CSM to be short-term, as higher new biz growth shall accumulate distributable future earnings to benefit in CSM release. We forecast CSM release growth to turn positive in 1H25, and full-year L&H OPAT +1.9% YoY (CMBI est).
預期NBV導航人壽險和健康險OPAt增長。中國平安人壽和健康險在2024年上半年實現NBV同比增長11%，達到223億元人民幣，暗示第二季度23.7億元人民幣的穩定水平。我們認爲這一成果是由以下因素組成的：1）利潤率擴張，總NBV利潤率在2024年上半年提高了6.5%至24.2%；2）高產能代理隊伍，NBV每個代理人/月同比增長36%，達到9785萬元人民幣，代理人規模略有提高，達到34萬人（與2024年第一季度相比：33.3萬人）；3）基於2023年長期投資回報率（4.5%）和風險折現率（9.5%）假設重新說明的2023年上半年與終值相關的EV數據。人壽和健康險OPAt同比增長0.7%，達到547億元人民幣，在2024年上半年在基於同比的運營差別（+10.2%）和投資服務結果（+12.1%）的支持下實現。釋放的險壽產品減少了5.5%，達到365億元人民幣，主要是因爲新業務險壽產品減少了12.6%至237億元人民幣。展望未來，我們預計NBV和新業務險壽產品的差異將是短期的，因爲更高的新業務增長將積累可分配的未來盈利，有利於險壽產品釋放。我們預測險壽產品釋放增長將在2025年上半年轉正，全年人壽和健康險OPAt同比增長1.9%（中國民生銀行估計）。
P&C CoR declined due to scale-back of guarantee insurance. P&C CoR was 97.8% in 1H24, -0.2pct YoY with expense ratio down to 27.2% (-0.2pct) and claim ratio remained intact at 70.6%. Auto CoR was 98.1%, +1pct YoY given increasing claims from recovering travels and more frequent natural catastrophes in 1H24. The insurer scaled back on high-loss guarantee business with insurance revenue of the line -44% YoY to RMB8.05bn and CoR contracted to 106.8% (-10.9 pct YoY). Non-auto CoR, excl. guarantee was up by 2.1pct to 95.5%, dragged by commercial property, health and agriculture. We see better-than-expected underwriting profit to RMB3.5bn, +15.3% YoY, thanks to increase in insurance revenue. We expect FY24E CoR to fall to 97.7% to reflect positive structural chg.
財險成本率下降主要是由於擔保業務規模減縮。1H24財險成本率爲97.8%，同比下降0.2個百分點，費用率下降至27.2% （-0.2個百分點）, 索賠率保持不變的70.6%。由於旅遊業的復甦和1H24頻發的自然災害，汽車成本率爲98.1%，同比增加1個百分點。該保險公司減少了高損失擔保業務，該業務的保險收入同比減少了44%至80.5億元人民幣，成本率同比下降10.9個百分點至106.8%。除擔保外，非汽車成本率同比上升2.1個百分點，至95.5%，其中商業地產、健康和農業是主要影響因素。由於保險收入增加，我們預計保險公司的淨保費利潤將超出預期，達到35億元人民幣，同比增長15.3%。我們預計FY24E成本率將下降至97.7%，以反映積極的結構性變化。
Valuation. The stock is trading at 0.42x FY24E P/EV and 0.61x FY24 P/BV, with 7.6% dividend yield and avg. 12.3% three-year ROE (CMBI est). We look positive on the Group's OPAT turnaround, given strengthened three core businesses and a low base in 2H23, esp. for AMC and Tech segments. Reiterate BUY, with TP unchanged at HK$52.0, implying FY24 0.6x P/EV.
估值。該股票交易的FY24E P/EV爲0.42倍，FY24 P/BV爲0.61倍，股息收益率爲7.6%，平均三年roe爲12.3% （招銀國際估計）。鑑於AMC和Tech部門的重組以及2H23低基數，我們對集團的經營性積極態度持正面看法。我們重申BUY，目標價不變，爲HK$52.0，暗示FY24 0.6倍P/EV。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。