APEC Growth Projected At 3.5% Despite Ongoing Challenges
APEC Growth Projected At 3.5% Despite Ongoing Challenges
The APEC region is projected to maintain stable economic growth at 3.5 percent, showcasing resilience in the face of uncertainty and ongoing challenges.
亞太經合組織地域板塊預計將保持穩定的經濟增長率爲3.5%，展示在不確定性和持續挑戰面前的韌性。
According to the August update of the APEC Regional Trends Analysis, the region's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 3.5 percent in 2024, consistent with the growth rate observed in 2023.
根據APEC地區趨勢分析的8月更新，預計該地區的國內生產總值（GDP）將在2024年增長3.5％，與2023年觀察到的增長率持平。
However, a slight deceleration is anticipated for 2025, with growth expected to ease to 3.1 percent, marking an improvement from earlier projections in May of 2.9 percent, as noted in a release issued by the APEC Policy Support Unit received here on Monday.
然而，據APEC政策支持部門週一發佈的一份聲明指出，預計2025年將稍有放緩，增長預計將放緩至3.1％，較5月份的2.9％的早期預測有所改善。
Director of the APEC Policy Support Unit Carlos Kuriyama stated that the collective commitment to controlling inflation and adopting prudent monetary policies has been pivotal while growth rates may vary across the region.
APEC政策支持部門主任Carlos Kuriyama表示，控制通脹並採取審慎的貨幣政策的集體承諾在各地區的增長率可能有所不同中起到了關鍵作用。
"As we move forward, it is crucial that we remain vigilant and flexible, ensuring that our economies can weather future challenges and continue on a path of sustainable development," he said.
他說：「在我們繼續前進的過程中，確保我們的經濟體能夠應對未來的挑戰並繼續可持續發展道路至關重要，我們必須保持警惕和靈活。」
APEC economies have seen significant success in moderating inflation, with the average inflation rate declining to 2.8 percent in June 2024, down from 5.9 percent in January 2023.
APEC經濟體在控制通脹方面取得了顯著成功，2024年6月平均通脹率下降至2.8％，遠低於2023年1月的5.9％。
This reduction underscores the effectiveness of the monetary policies implemented across the region.
這種降低體現了該地區實施的貨幣政策的有效性。
"Central banks in APEC have mostly maintained a cautious approach, avoiding premature rate reductions that could trigger capital flight and currency depreciation," according to Rhea C. Hernando, an analyst with the Policy Support Unit.
「APEC各國的中央銀行大多采取謹慎的態度，避免過早減息可能引發資本外逃和貨幣貶值，」政策支持部門的分析師Rhea C. Hernando表示。
"As a result, APEC has seen the appreciation or slowing depreciation of 20 currencies against the US dollar in recent months," Hernando added.
"因此，APEC近幾個月來已經看到20種貨幣對美元的升值或減速貶值，" Hernando補充說。
Trade performance within the APEC region expanded, with merchandise exports in the first quarter of 2024 growing by 3.9 percent in volume and 1.6 percent in value as compared to the same period in 2023. This trend aligns with the anticipated global trade volume rebound of 3.1 percent in 2024.
APEC地區的貿易表現有所擴大，2024年第一季度商品出口量和價值分別比2023年同期增長了3.9%和1.6%，這一趨勢符合預期的2024年全球貿易成交量將反彈3.1%。
"Additionally, domestic consumption has shown resilience, further bolstering economic optimism across the region," a researcher with the Policy Support Unit, Glacer Niño A. Vasquez, said.
"此外，國內消費表現出韌性，進一步支撐了該地區的經濟樂觀情緒，" 政策支持單位的研究員Glacer Niño A. Vasquez說。
He noted that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index across APEC economies remained steady, reflecting favorable manufacturing activity.
他指出，APEC經濟體的製造業採購經理人指數保持穩定，反映出有利的製造業活動。
The report highlights that the region is currently grappling with increased trade tensions, which have led to a notable rise in trade restrictions and remedies, such as anti-dumping and countervailing duties.
報告強調該地區目前正面臨增加的貿易緊張局勢，這已導致明顯的貿易限制和反制措施，如反傾銷和補貼稅的顯著上升。
Persistent supply chain disruptions have also increased the cost and time of transporting goods across the border, putting additional pressure on prices.
持續的供應鏈中斷也增加了跨境商品運輸的成本和時間，給價格帶來額外壓力。
Strategic economic policies and international cooperation are expected to play a crucial role in navigating these issues.
戰略經濟政策和國際合作預計將在解決這些問題上發揮關鍵作用。
APEC economies are encouraged to adjust monetary policy carefully, rebuild fiscal buffers, and explore policy alternatives that enhance trade relations without restricting trade and investment.
鼓勵APEC經濟體謹慎調整貨幣政策，重建財政緩衝，探索增強貿易關係而不限制貿易和投資的政策替代方案。
"The steady growth we are witnessing across the APEC region, despite global uncertainties, is a testament to the resilience and adaptability of our economies," Kuriyama stated.
「儘管全球不確定性增加，但APEC地區持續增長的勢頭證明了我們經濟的抗壓能力和適應性。」庫裏山說。
"As we continue to navigate complex challenges, APEC's commitment to sound economic policies and regional cooperation will be critical in sustaining this momentum and fostering long-term prosperity," he said.
「在應對複雜挑戰的同時，APEC致力於堅持 sound economic policies 和地區合作，這對於維持這種勢頭和促進長期繁榮至關重要。」他說。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。