Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the right price. For example, although software-as-a-service business Salesforce.com lost money for years while it grew recurring revenue, if you held shares since 2005, you'd have done very well indeed. Having said that, unprofitable companies are risky because they could potentially burn through all their cash and become distressed.
So, the natural question for QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) shareholders is whether they should be concerned by its rate of cash burn. For the purposes of this article, cash burn is the annual rate at which an unprofitable company spends cash to fund its growth; its negative free cash flow. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.
When Might QuantumScape Run Out Of Money?
A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. In June 2024, QuantumScape had US$938m in cash, and was debt-free. Looking at the last year, the company burnt through US$308m. So it had a cash runway of about 3.0 years from June 2024. A runway of this length affords the company the time and space it needs to develop the business. Depicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time.
NYSE:QS Debt to Equity History August 25th 2024
How Is QuantumScape's Cash Burn Changing Over Time?
Because QuantumScape isn't currently generating revenue, we consider it an early-stage business. So while we can't look to sales to understand growth, we can look at how the cash burn is changing to understand how expenditure is trending over time. As it happens, the company's cash burn reduced by 20% over the last year, which suggests that management are maintaining a fairly steady rate of business development, albeit with a slight decrease in spending. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.
How Hard Would It Be For QuantumScape To Raise More Cash For Growth?
Even though it has reduced its cash burn recently, shareholders should still consider how easy it would be for QuantumScape to raise more cash in the future. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. Many companies end up issuing new shares to fund future growth. We can compare a company's cash burn to its market capitalisation to get a sense for how many new shares a company would have to issue to fund one year's operations.
QuantumScape has a market capitalisation of US$3.1b and burnt through US$308m last year, which is 10.0% of the company's market value. Given that is a rather small percentage, it would probably be really easy for the company to fund another year's growth by issuing some new shares to investors, or even by taking out a loan.
So, Should We Worry About QuantumScape's Cash Burn?
It may already be apparent to you that we're relatively comfortable with the way QuantumScape is burning through its cash. For example, we think its cash runway suggests that the company is on a good path. Its weak point is its cash burn reduction, but even that wasn't too bad! After taking into account the various metrics mentioned in this report, we're pretty comfortable with how the company is spending its cash, as it seems on track to meet its needs over the medium term. On another note, we conducted an in-depth investigation of the company, and identified 5 warning signs for QuantumScape (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course QuantumScape may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
即使企業虧損,如果以正確的價格購買優質企業,股東仍然有可能賺錢。例如,雖然軟件即服務業務Salesforce.com 在不斷增長營收的同時多年虧損,但自2005年購買股份以來,你會獲得豐厚的回報。儘管如此,無利可圖的公司是有風險的,因爲它們有可能將所有資金燒光並處於窘境。
因此,對於QuantumScape(紐交所: QS)的股東來說,自然而然的問題就是他們是否應該擔心其現金燃燒速度。對於本文而言,現金燃燒是指一家無盈利公司用於資助其增長的年度現金流出率;即負的自由現金流。 第一步是將其現金燃燒與其現金儲備進行比較,以得出其「現金運行時間」。
QuantumScape何時將錢用光?
一家公司的現金運行時間是通過將其現金儲備除以其現金燃燒來計算的。2024年6月,QuantumScape持有93800萬美元現金,並且沒有債務。回顧去年,該公司的現金燃燒爲3.08億美元。因此,從2024年6月開始,它的現金運行時間約爲3.0年。這樣長度的現金運行時間爲公司提供了開發業務所需的時間和空間。如下圖所示,您可以看到其現金持有情況如何隨時間變化。
紐交所: QS債務權益歷史數據 2024年8月25日
QuantumScape的現金燃燒隨時間的變化如何?
因爲QuantumScape目前並未產生營業收入,所以我們認爲它是一家早期階段的企業。因此,雖然我們無法依靠銷售來理解增長,但我們可以看一下現金燃燒如何變化,以了解支出隨時間的趨勢。事實上,公司的現金燃燒在過去一年中減少了20%,這表明管理層在保持相當穩定的業務發展速度,儘管支出略有減少。雖然過去的經驗總是值得研究的,但最重要的是未來。因此,查看我們的分析師對該公司的預測是非常有意義的。
QuantumScape爲了增長籌集更多現金會有多難?
儘管QuantumScape最近減少了現金流失,但股東們仍應考慮未來QuantumScape籌集更多現金的難易程度。公司可以通過債務或股權籌集資金。許多公司最終發行新股票來資助未來的增長。我們可以把公司的現金流失與市值相比較,來了解公司需要發行多少新股票來資助一年的運營。
QuantumScape的市值爲31億美元,去年燒掉了3080萬美元,這相當於公司市值的10.0%。考慮到這個比例很小,QuantumScape很可能通過向投資者發行新股票或借貸來輕鬆籌集另一年的增長資金。
那麼,我們需要擔心QuantumScape的現金流失嗎?
你可能已經意識到,我們對於QuantumScape的現金流失相對來說是比較放心的。例如,我們認爲其現金儲備表明該公司在正確的道路上。它的弱點是現金流失的減少,但即使如此,情況也不是太糟糕!綜合考慮了本報告中提到的各種指標後,我們對於公司的現金支出非常滿意,因爲它似乎在中期內能夠滿足其需求。另外,我們對該公司進行了深入調查,並找到了5個警示信號(1個非常重要!)在你投資之前你應該了解這些。
當然,QuantumScape可能不是最好的股票買入選擇。所以你可能希望看一下這個免費的公司回報率高的企業收藏,或者這個高內部所有權的股票清單。