AAC TECH(2018.HK):RIDING ON NEW UPGRADE CYCLE; UPGRADE TO BUY
AAC TECH(2018.HK):RIDING ON NEW UPGRADE CYCLE; UPGRADE TO BUY
Our FY24-26E EPS are 12-16% above consensus; Upgrade to BUY. We lifted our FY24-26E EPS by 23-31% to reflect strong 1H24, better margin profile and AI spec upgrade into 2025/26. Our new SOTP-based TP of HK$37.8 implies 19.6x FY25E P/E. The stock now trades at 20.2x/16.3x FY24/25E P/E which is attractive in our view. Upcoming catalysts include iPhone 16 launch, Android AI spec upgrade and GPM recovery.We upgrade AAC to BUY with SOTP-based TP of HK$37.8 (19.6x FY25E P/E), as we believe spec upgrade in acoustics/optics/haptics and upcoming AI smartphone cycle will boost earnings growth into FY25/26E. AAC's 1H24 revenue/net profit growth of 22%/257% YoY is ahead of market expectations, thanks to stronger margin recovery (+7.4 ppts YoY/+2.3 ppts HoH), better product mix in acoustics/optics/PM and consolidation of PSS. For FY24E, mgmt. reiterated 15% YoY sales growth (excl. PSS) with GPM HoH expansion, driven by: 1) Optics: better HSL/HCM ASP/shipment and improving GPM into 4Q24E, 2) Acoustic: SLS/Combo product penetration, 3) Haptics/casing/hinges: high- end model launches and market share gains in 2H24E, and 4) Acoustics/heat dissipation upgrades for AI smartphones. Overall, we lifted our FY24-26E EPS by 23-31% to reflect strong 1H24, better margin recovery and AI spec upgrade into 2025/26. Near-term catalysts including iPhone 16 launch, Android spec upgrade and GPM recovery.
我們根據SOTP-based TP將AAC股票評級升級至買入，目標價爲HK$37.8（19.6倍FY25E市盈率），因爲我們相信聲學/光學/觸覺的專業升級以及即將到來的人工智能智能手機週期將推動收益在FY25/26E前增長。AAC的1H24營業收入/淨利潤同比增長22%/257%，超出市場預期，得益於更強勁的毛利率恢復（同比+7.4個百分點，環比回升+2.3個百分點），聲學/光學/Pm產品組合更佳以及PSS的一體化。對於FY24E，管理層重申銷售增長15%（不包括PSS），毛利率環比回升，因爲：1）光學：更好的HSL/HCm ASP/裝運量和向4Q24E的毛利率改善；2）聲學：SLS/Combo產品滲透；3）觸覺/外殼/鉸鏈：高端型號的發佈和在2H24E的市場份額增長；4）聲學/散熱升級面向人工智能智能手機。總體而言，我們上調了FY24-26E每股收益23-31%，以反映強勁的1H24，更好的毛利率恢復以及人工智能升級到2025/26。近期催化劑包括iPhone 16的發佈、Android的專業升級和毛利率的復甦。
1H24 beat on stronger GPM recovery across all segments. By segment, acoustics/ED&PM/optics delivered 4%/1%/25% YoY sales growth in 1H24. In particular, we are encouraged by optics GPM improvement to 4.7% (plastic lens/HCM GPM 16.7%/5.7%), well ahead of -17%/-9.2% GPM in 1H23/2H23, and GPM for acoustics/haptics/PM returned to heavy level of 30%/30%/18%. Mgmt. is positive on further GPM expansion for both plastic lens and HCM in 2H24E, and target breakeven for optics business in 4Q24E. Acoustic/haptics/ PM segments benefited from smartphone demand recovery in 1H24, while MEMS declined due to shipment delay for one key smartphone customer.
1H24毛利率在所有板塊都有較強恢復。按板塊劃分，聲學/ED&PM/光學在1H24實現4%/1%/25%的銷售增長。特別地，我們對光學毛利率改善至4.7%（塑料鏡頭/HCm毛利率16.7%/5.7%）感到鼓舞。遠超過1H23/2H23的-17%/-9.2%毛利率，聲學/觸覺/Pm的毛利率回歸到了30%/30%/18%的重水平。管理層對2H24E的塑料鏡頭和HCm進一步毛利率擴張持積極態度，並預期光學業務在4Q24E實現盈虧平衡。聲學/觸覺/Pm板塊受益於1H24智能手機需求的恢復，而MEMS由於一家重要智能手機客戶的裝運延遲而下降。
FY24E/2025 outlook: more spec upgrades and GPM upside for iPhone 16 and Android AI smartphones. For FY24E, mgmt. guided 15% YoY sales growth (exclu. PSS) with better margin into 2H24E, and sales growth momentum will sustain into 2025/26, mainly driven by 1) share gains in optics HLS/HCM/WLG with GPM expansion. 2) spec upgrade (acoustics/haptics/ heat//optics) for upcoming Apple/Android AI smartphones. 3) sales synergy with PSS auto acoustics. Overall, we expect AAC's earnings to grow 125%/24% YoY in FY24/25E
FY24E/2025展望：iPhone 16和Android人工智能智能手機的專業升級和毛利率上行。對於FY24E，管理層指導銷售增長15%（不包括PSS），並在2H24E實現更好的毛利率，銷售增長勢頭將持續到2025/26，主要受到：1）在光學的HLS/HCM/WLG中獲得份額增長和毛利率擴張；2）即將發佈的蘋果/Android人工智能智能手機的專業升級（聲學/觸覺/散熱/光學）；3）與PSS汽車聲學的銷售協同效應。總體而言，我們預計AAC的收益在FY24/25E將分別增長125%/24%。
Our FY24-26E EPS are 12-16% above consensus; Upgrade to BUY. We lifted our FY24-26E EPS by 23-31% to reflect strong 1H24, better margin profile and AI spec upgrade into 2025/26. Our new SOTP-based TP of HK$37.8 implies 19.6x FY25E P/E. The stock now trades at 20.2x/16.3x FY24/25E P/E which is attractive in our view. Upcoming catalysts include iPhone 16 launch, Android AI spec upgrade and GPM recovery.
我們對FY24-26E每股收益比一致預期高出12-16％進行了升級。我們將FY24-26E每股收益上調了23-31％，以反映強勁的1H24，更好的利潤率和AI規格升級至2025/26。我們基於SOTP的新目標價格爲HK$37.8，對應FY25E市盈率爲19.6倍。我們認爲目前股票的20.2倍/16.3倍FY24/25E市盈率具有吸引力。即將出現的推動因素包括iPhone 16的發佈、Android AI規格升級和GPm復甦。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
