CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL(1093.HK):LEGACY PRODUCTS FACED PRICING PRESSURES
CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL(1093.HK):LEGACY PRODUCTS FACED PRICING PRESSURES
Maintain BUY. Due to the moderate 1H24 growth, pricing pressures of legacy products, and downward revision of new product sales target, we revised our estimate and expect CSPC's revenue and attributable net profit to grow 1.3%/ 1.3% and 0.5%/ -1.5% YoY in FY24E/ 25E, respectively. We revise down our DCF-based TP from HK$8.51 to HK$6.21 (WACC 11.78%, terminal growth 2.0%).Moderate growth in 1H24. In 1H24, CSPC's total revenue increased by 1.3% YoY to RMB16.28bn and the attributable net profit increased by 1.8% YoY to RMB3.02bn, accounting for 46% and 45% of our previous full-year estimates. For 2Q24, the total revenue was RMB5.99bn (-8.1% YoY, -20.8% QoQ) and the attributable net profit was RMB2.19bn (+42.2% YoY, +35.7% QoQ). The net profit increase was mainly due to the reduced selling expenses in 2Q24, which decreased by 38.6% QoQ to RMB1.82bn. GP margin in 1H24 improved to 71.6% (up from 69.9% in 1H23), due to a higher proportion of revenue from finished drugs. R&D expenses reached RMB1.37bn in 2Q24 (+17.4% QoQ).
1H24年度增長適度。CSPC的總營業收入同比增長1.3%，達到人民幣162.8億元，歸屬淨利潤同比增長1.8%，達到人民幣30.2億元，佔我們之前全年估計的46%和45%。對於2Q24，總營業收入爲人民幣59.9億元（同比下滑8.1%，環比下滑20.8%），歸屬淨利潤爲人民幣21.9億元（同比增長42.2%，環比增長35.7%）。淨利潤的增長主要是由於2Q24銷售費用減少了38.6%，環比降至18.2億元。由於成品藥收入佔比提高，1H24毛利率達到71.6%（較1H23的69.9%提高），2Q24的研發費用達到13.7億元（環比增長17.4%）。
Jinyouli and Duomeisu may face pricing pressures. The company recorded RMB5.99bn in sales from finished drugs in 2Q24 (-8.1% YoY, - 20.8% QoQ). The sales of oncology products, cardiovascular drugs, and respiratory disease products decreased by 30.6%, 27.0%, and 23.1% YoY in 2Q24 to RMB1.07bn, RMB509mn, and RMB289mn, respectively. Significant price cuts in the "3+N" Alliance provincial VBP, effective Mar 2024, impacted the sales of oncology products, with the price of Jinyouli reduced by 58.4% to RMB666 (3mg) and Duomeisu by 10.0% (10mg) to RMB2,061 and 21.8% (20mg) to RMB3,504. With more provinces adopting these reduced prices, sales of Jinyouli and Duomeisu are expected to continue to decline. Additionally, Duomeisu is likely to be included in the upcoming national VBP. However, NBP performed well in 1H24, driven by strong growth from retail pharmacy channels, with sales of CNS products increased by 4.2% YoY to RMB2.53bn.
錦友力和多美速可能面臨價格壓力。該公司在2Q24的成品藥銷售額爲人民幣59.9億元（同比下滑8.1%，環比下滑20.8%）。腫瘤產品、心血管藥品和呼吸道疾病產品在2Q24同比分別下滑30.6%、27.0%和23.1%，銷售額爲10.7億元、5.09億元和2.89億元。《3+N》聯盟省級VBP的大幅定價下降，自2024年3月起生效，對腫瘤產品銷售產生了影響，其中錦友力的價格降幅爲58.4%，降至666元（3毫克），而多美速的價格降幅分別爲10.0%（10毫克），降至2061元，以及21.8%（20毫克），降至3504元。隨着更多省份採用這些降價政策，預計錦友力和多美速的銷售量將繼續下降。此外，多美速有可能被納入即將到來的全國VBP。然而，NBP在1H24表現出色，由零售藥房渠道強勁增長推動，中樞神經系統產品銷售額同比增長4.2%，達到25.3億元。
Sales target of new products adjusted downward. Affected by the regulatory environment in China, the company expects certain delays in hospital listings of its new products, and thus revised down its FY24 sales target for new products from RMB3.0bn to RMB2.0bn (excl. channel inventory build-up). Nevertheless, we expect the sales ramp-up of new products to continue in 2H24 and 2025, including Mingfule (rhTNK-tPA), Duoenyi (irinotecan liposome), Anfulike (amphotericin B), etc, which could help offset the decline in oncology products. By end-2024, we expect the company to bring four assets to the NDRL, including narlumosbart (RANKL), enlonstobart (PD-1), Duoenyi (irinotecan liposome) and palbociclib (CDK4/6). We expect the addition of a new indication for Mingfule for acute ischemic stroke during the NRDL negotiation at end-2024, bringing additional sales potential for the product. NBP will also renew its NRDL price by end-2024.
新產品銷售目標調整下降。受中國監管環境影響，該公司預計其新產品在醫院上市方面會有一定的延遲，因此將FY24新產品的銷售目標從30億元人民幣下調至20億元人民幣（不包括渠道庫存）。儘管如此，我們預計新產品的銷售增長將在2H24和2025年繼續，其中包括敏福樂（rhTNk-tPA）、多恩伊（伊立替康脂質體）、安福力可（兩性黴素B）等，這些新產品有望抵消腫瘤產品的下降。到2024年底，我們預計該公司將有四個資產列入全國新藥優先審評審批程序，包括納羅姆索巴（RANKL）、恩隆索巴特（PD-1）、多恩伊（伊立替康脂質體）和帕博西利（CDK4/6）。我們預計敏福樂在2024年底的NRDL談判中將獲得急性缺血性中風的新適應症，爲產品帶來了更多的銷售潛力。NBP還將於2024年底更新其NRDL價格。
Maintain BUY. Due to the moderate 1H24 growth, pricing pressures of legacy products, and downward revision of new product sales target, we revised our estimate and expect CSPC's revenue and attributable net profit to grow 1.3%/ 1.3% and 0.5%/ -1.5% YoY in FY24E/ 25E, respectively. We revise down our DCF-based TP from HK$8.51 to HK$6.21 (WACC 11.78%, terminal growth 2.0%).
維持買入評級。由於上半年24年增長中等、傳統產品的定價壓力以及新產品銷售目標的下調，我們調整了估計，並預計CSPC的營業收入和歸屬淨利潤在24E/25E的同比增長率分別爲1.3% / 1.3%和0.5% / -1.5%。我們將基於DCF的目標價從8.51港元下調至6.21港元（WACC 11.78%，終端增長2.0%）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
