On August 21, UBS released a research report maintaining a BUY rating on Futu Holdings, with a target price of US$87.00. UBS pointed out the following highlights:
Discussion of investors' interests and key drivers: 1) paying clients acquisition in Q2 and FY24; 2) earnings pressure from rate cuts is manageable; 3) Japan and Malaysia market development.
In Q3, UBS expects solid paying client acquisition and strong client asset net inflow. Trading volume would likely book another QoQ growth, driven by both stock asset expansion and higher velocity. However, on a QoQ basis, blended fee rate may be diluted by higher US stock option prices amid a volatile market. UBS estimates that 3QTD CAC is largely on par with the Q2 level.
Valuation: Factoring in faster-than-expected overseas expansion and more conservative projection on clients' investment performance, UBS lifted FY24/25/26E new paying clients and revised client AUM. Further considering lower blended fee rate, normalized other income and net loss of Airstar Bank, UBS trim price target to US$87.00 from US$90.00 with a BUY rating.
Key risks to Futu Holdings include:
(1) lower-than-expected international expansion (especially in the Japan and Malaysia market);
(2) worse-than-expected market conditions.
8月21日,瑞銀发布研究報告,維持對富途的 「買入」評級,目標價爲87.00美元。瑞銀指出,富途有以下亮點:
投資者的興趣點及主要驅動因素:1)第二季度和2024財年的付費客戶獲客情況;2)由利率下調導致的收入壓力可控;3)日本和馬來西亞市場的发展。
瑞銀預測在第三季度,將實現穩固的付費客戶增長和強勁的客戶資產淨流入。由於股票資產的增加和交易活躍度的提升,交易量很可能會再次實現環比增長。然而,受到市場的波動性及美股期權價格上漲的影響,綜合佣金費率可能會環比減少。瑞銀預計,第三季度的獲客成本與第二季度持平。
估值:考慮到海外擴張速度超出預期,以及對客戶未來投資表現持保守態度,瑞銀上調未來幾年的新付費客戶的預期數量,並且調整了客戶資產規模的預測數值。同時,考慮到綜合佣金費率下降、其他收入常規化以及Airstar Bank的淨虧損問題,瑞銀將目標價從90.00美元下調至87.00美元,並維持買入評級。
主要風險包括:
(1) 國際擴張低於預期(尤其是日本和馬來西亞市場);
(2) 市場環境不如預期。