SUNNY OPTICAL(2382.HK):GEARING UP FOR NEW GROWTH CYCLE; RAISE TP TO HK$72.52
SUNNY OPTICAL(2382.HK):GEARING UP FOR NEW GROWTH CYCLE; RAISE TP TO HK$72.52
Raise estimates on ASP/GPM upside; Reiterate BUY. Overall, we raised our FY25-26E EPS by 7-8% to factor in 1H24 results, faster spec upgrade and stronger ASP/GPM recovery in FY25/26E. Trading at 20.1x/16.8x FY24/25E P/E (vs 33.6x 10-yr avg. P/E), we think the stock is attractive, vs 123%/19% EPS growth in FY24/25E. Reiterate BUY with new TP of HK$72.52.Sunny's 1H24 revenue/NP growth of 32%/145% YoY is largely in-line with prior positive profit alert, driven by smartphone's HLS/HCM ASP/GPM recovery and rapid auto/XR growth. Mgmt. raised 2024 shipment guidance for HLS/VLS to 5-10% YoY /10-15% YoY (vs prior +5%/10% YoY), and guided ASP/GPM improvement into 2H24E and 2025. For 2025, we are positive on Apple's share gains, AI smartphone upgrade, auto product ramp-up and XR customers' order wins. We revised up FY24- 26E estimates to factor in 1H24 results and better ASP/GPM outlook. Maintain BUY and lift SOTP-based TP to HK$72.52, implying 24.9x FY25E P/E. Upcoming catalysts include iPhone16 launch, Android AI phones and monthly shipment.
Sunny的1H24營業收入/淨利潤同比增長32%/145%，基本符合之前的利潤預警，主要受智能手機的HLS/HCm ASP/GPm恢復和汽車/XR快速增長驅動。管理層將HLS/VLS的2024年出貨量指導提高到同比增長5-10%/10-15%（較之前的+5%/10% YoY），並指導ASP/GPm在2H24E和2025年改善。對於2025年，我們對蘋果產品市場份額增長、AI智能手機升級、汽車產品擴大產量和XR用戶的訂單勝利持積極態度。我們上調了FY24-26E的預測以考慮到1H24的業績和更好的ASP/GPm前景。維持買入評級，將基於SOTP的目標價提高到72.52港元，對應FY25E市盈率24.9倍。即將出現的催化劑包括iPhone16發佈、Android AI手機和月度出貨量。
1H24 revenue/GPM beat on HCM/HLS product mix and ASP hike. While Sunny's 1H net profit growth of 145% is in-line with prior profit alert, revenue growth of 32% YoY beat our/consensus estimates by 4%/9%, mainly driven by better product mix in smartphone/auto/XR (+34%/16%/112% YoY). Key highlights include: 1) we estimate HCM/HSL ASP rebounded by 15.1%/15.7% YoY in 1H24, implying Android's rapid spec upgrade, 2) 1H GPM improved 2.3ppt YoY/3.1ppt HoH to 17.2% and HLS/HCM GPM recovered to ~20%/6-8% in 1H24. 3) By region, 1H revenue from China/Europe/US grew 57%/32%/15% YoY, implying strong sales from Chinese smartphones, European automakers and US's Apple/Meta VR, while 20% YoY decline in Asia (exp. China) suggested weakness from Samsung smartphone and Japanese automakers.
1H24營業收入/GPm超出預期，主要得益於HCM/HLS產品組合和ASP上漲。儘管Sunny的1H淨利潤同比增長145%與之前的利潤預警相符，但32%同比增長的營業收入超出了我們/市場共識預期4%/9%，主要受到智能手機/汽車/XR產品組合的優化（+34%/16%/112%YoY）。主要亮點包括：1）我們估計HCM/HSL的ASP在1H24同比增長了15.1%/15.7%，意味着安卓快速規格升級；2）1H GPm同比改善了2.3ppt，環比改善了3.1ppt，達到17.2%，HLS/HCm的GPm分別在1H24恢復到了約20%/6-8%；3）按地域劃分，1H中國/歐洲/美國的營業收入同比增長57%/32%/15%，表明中國智能手機、歐洲汽車製造商和美國的蘋果/Meta VR銷售強勁，而亞洲（除中國外）同比下降20%，暗示三星智能手機和日本汽車製造商的疲軟。
Upward revision for 2024 smartphone/XR guidance; Focus on Apple's share gains/upgrade, AI phones and auto/XR in 2025. Mgmt. raised 2024 guidance in earnings call: 1) HLS: shipment up 5-10% YoY (vs. prior 5% YoY) in FY24E; 2H ASP to improve HoH (vs.+10-15% YoY in 1H); 2H GPM to rise to 20-25% (vs. ~20% GPM in 1H); 2) HCM: flattish shipment in FY24E; ASP to climb HoH and GPM to rise to 6-10% (vs. 6-8% in 1H) on high-end order wins and better yield. 3) VLS: shipment up 10-15% YoY (vs. prior 10% YoY); 2H GPM to maintain stable at ~40%. 4) XR: sales up 25% YoY (vs. prior +15% YoY). Looking into 2025, we expect growth drivers from 1) Sunny's OIS/VCM- integrated HCM, 2) iPhone share gains/upgrade in front-cam; 3) iPhone order wins in main cam/periscope cam (hybrid lens); 4) Android periscope- cam adoption, and 5) Meta AR glasses and Quest 3 Lite in 2H24E.
2024年智能手機/XR指導上調；關注蘋果的市場份額增長/升級、AI手機和2025年的汽車/XR。管理層在業績會上提高了2024年的指導：1）HLS：FY24E出貨量同比增長5-10%（較之前的5% YoY）；2H ASP較1H預計改善（較1H年同比增長10-15%）；2H GPm預計提高至20-25%（較1H的GPm約20%）；2）HCM：FY24E出貨量平穩增長；ASP較1H預計環比上升，高端訂單和產量改善將支撐 GPm 達到6-10%（較1H的GPm 6-8%）；3）VLS：FY24E出貨量同比增長10-15%（較之前的10% YoY）；2H GPm維持在約40%；4）XR：銷售同比增長25%（較之前的+15% YoY）。展望2025年，我們預計增長的驅動因素包括：1）Sunny的OIS/VCm集成HCm、2）iPhone市場份額增長/前置攝像頭升級、3）iPhone在主攝像頭/望遠鏡攝像頭（混合鏡頭）方面的訂單增長、4）安卓望遠鏡攝像頭的採用，以及5）Meta AR眼鏡和2H24E的Quest 3 Lite。
Raise estimates on ASP/GPM upside; Reiterate BUY. Overall, we raised our FY25-26E EPS by 7-8% to factor in 1H24 results, faster spec upgrade and stronger ASP/GPM recovery in FY25/26E. Trading at 20.1x/16.8x FY24/25E P/E (vs 33.6x 10-yr avg. P/E), we think the stock is attractive, vs 123%/19% EPS growth in FY24/25E. Reiterate BUY with new TP of HK$72.52.
提高ASP / GPm的估計。總體而言，我們將FY25-26E EPS提高了7-8％，以考慮到1H24的結果，更快的規格升級和FY25/26E的更強的ASP / GPm恢復。按照20.1x / 16.8x FY24/25E P/E交易（相對於33.6x 10年平均值 P/E），我們認爲該股票具有吸引力，相對於FY24/25E 的123% / 19％的EPS增長。重申買入，與新的目標股價HK$72.52相符。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
