SUNNY OPTICAL(2382.HK):1H24 RECOVERY DRIVEN BY STRONG SMARTPHONE MIX AND MARGINS
SUNNY OPTICAL(2382.HK):1H24 RECOVERY DRIVEN BY STRONG SMARTPHONE MIX AND MARGINS
Smartphone: 1H24 smartphone revenues increased 34% YoY to RMB13bn, a result of HLS/HCM volume increase by 24%/14% YoY as well as ASP improvement driven by better mix. Shipment of high-end HLS (6P and above) and high-end HCM (periscope and large image size) grew 23% and 67% YoY in 1H24, respectively. Company increased 2024 HLS shipment guidance from 5% to 5-10%, which could be largely attributable to smooth share gain from key US client. Mgmt. is confident in GPM and ASP HoH improvement in 2H24, given 1) positive business growth from key US and Korean clients, 2) spec upgrade and demand recovery in mid-high end Android, including conventional flagships and foldables, and 3) better yield rate in high-end HCM like periscope.Sunny Optical reported a strong set of 1H24 results primarily driven by smartphone restocking and demand recovery. ASP and margin of HLS and HCM both strong beat our numbers. We think Company's positive 2024 guidance revision eventually relieves investors' concern on potential 2H24 smartphone slowdown. Apple lens share gain and Android OEMs' specification upgrade on high-end phones are key reasons, in our view. Looking into 2025, we expect XR and automotive growth which have showed strong momentum YTD to be top value drivers again. We increase 2024/25/26E EPS by 15%/7%/1%. Maintain BUY with unchanged TP$69.0.
舜宇光學科技報告了強勁的2024年上半年業績，主要受到智能手機補貨和需求恢復的推動。光柵法和華碩脈寬調製都在ASP和利潤率方面強勁擊敗了我們的數值。我們認爲公司對2024年業績的積極調整最終緩解了投資者對下半年智能手機增長放緩的擔憂。在我們看來，蘋果鏡頭市場份額增加和Android手機廠商對高端手機規格的升級是關鍵原因。展望2025年，我們預計XR和汽車業務的增長將再次成爲主要價值驅動因素。我們將2024/25/26E每股收益預測提高了15%/7%/1%。維持買入評級，目標價不變69.0美元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
1H24 result beat: Revenue increased by 32% YoY to RMB18.9bn, beating BOCIe and consensus by 11% and 12% respectively. GPM increased 3.1ppts HoH to 17.2% driven by robust HLS/HCM/VLS shipment and improved product mix/ASP. OPM improved 3.1ppts HoH to 5.2%. NI increased 147% YoY and 63% HoH to RMB1.1bn, slightly above the midpoint of its previous profit alert.
1H24業績超預期：營業收入同比增長32%至189億元人民幣，超過中銀國際和共識分別11%和12%。盈虧比率環比提高3.1個百分點至17.2%，主要受到強勁的光柵法/寬角脈衝調製/可見光傳感器出貨量和改善的產品組合/ASP的推動。營業利潤率環比提高3.1個百分點至5.2%。淨收入同比增長147%，環比增長63%至11億元人民幣，略高於此前盈利預警的中點。
Smartphone: 1H24 smartphone revenues increased 34% YoY to RMB13bn, a result of HLS/HCM volume increase by 24%/14% YoY as well as ASP improvement driven by better mix. Shipment of high-end HLS (6P and above) and high-end HCM (periscope and large image size) grew 23% and 67% YoY in 1H24, respectively. Company increased 2024 HLS shipment guidance from 5% to 5-10%, which could be largely attributable to smooth share gain from key US client. Mgmt. is confident in GPM and ASP HoH improvement in 2H24, given 1) positive business growth from key US and Korean clients, 2) spec upgrade and demand recovery in mid-high end Android, including conventional flagships and foldables, and 3) better yield rate in high-end HCM like periscope.
智能手機：1H24智能手機銷售收入同比增長34%至130億元人民幣，主要受到光柵法/華碩脈寬調製銷售量同比增長24%/14%以及良好產品組合驅動的ASP改善。1H24高端光柵法（6P及以上）和高端華碩脈寬調製（激光雷達和大像素）的銷量同比增長分別爲23%和67%。公司將2024年光柵法銷售量的指導範圍從5%上調至5-10%，這在很大程度上可以歸因於與核心美國客戶的順利份額增長。管理層對下半年盈虧比率和ASP的環比改善充滿信心，原因如下：1）來自核心美國和韓國客戶的業務增長的積極影響；2）傳統旗艦機型和可摺疊屏等中高端安卓手機的規格升級和需求恢復；3）激光雷達等高端華碩脈寬調製的良率提高。
Automotive: 1H24 automotive revenues grew 17% YoY to RMB2.9bn, driven by 13% YoY growth in VLS volume and ramping up of module business. Company guided up 2024 VLS volume growth from 10% YoY to 10-15% YoY with stable GPM and ASP. Per mgmt., Sunny ranked No.1 in global 8MP module market and the number of LiDAR designated projects in 1H24 surpassed the total for 2023. Sunny also plans to mass produce self-developed PGU for HUD in 2H24. We expect VLS and module business will remain as the structural growth driver for the Company as FSD and L3-4 autonomous driving progress rapidly. Company currently has automotive module contracts worth over RMB10bn in value and expects module revenues to grow at +20% CAGR.
汽車業務：1H24汽車銷售收入同比增長17%至29億元人民幣，主要受到可見光傳感器銷量同比增長13%和模組業務加快推進的推動。公司將2024年可見光傳感器銷量增長預期從同比10%調高至同比10-15%。據管理層介紹，舜宇在全球8MP模組市場排名第一，1H24激光雷達指定項目數量超過2023年總和。舜宇還計劃在下半年批量生產自主研發的用於HUD的PGU。我們預計可見光傳感器和模組業務將繼續成爲公司的結構性增長驅動因素，隨着全自動駕駛的FSD和L3-4進展迅速。公司目前的汽車模組合同合同總值超過100億元人民幣，並預計模組銷售收入將以+20%的年均複合增長率增長。
XR and Robotic vision: XR revenues increased 112% YoY to RMB1bn in 1H24 thanks to the growth from key US client's AI glasses and VR. Mgmt. raised 2024 XR revenue guidance from +15% to +25% YoY, to reflect a solid momentum of AI glasses. Company is first in the industry to mass produce monochrome and color MicroLED optical engines. Regarding to Robotic vision, Company achieved mass production in robot navigation and batch shipments in biometric recognition for a leading intelligent door lock customer in 1H24.
XR和機器視覺: 1H24年XR營業收入同比增長112%，達到10億元人民幣，這要歸功於美國主要客戶的人工智能眼鏡和虛擬現實產品的增長。管理層將2024年XR營業收入預期從同比增長15%調整至同比增長25%，以反映人工智能眼鏡的穩定勢頭。公司是行業首家批量生產單色和彩色MicroLED光學引擎的企業。關於機器視覺，公司在1H24實現了機器導航的批量生產，並向一家領先的智能門鎖客戶批量發貨進行生物特徵識別。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
1) Demand miss for high spec smartphone; 2) slower-than-expected market share gain; 3) new price war initiated by peers; and 4) weak macro.
1) 高規格智能手機需求短缺；2) 市場份額增長低於預期；3) 同行業發起新的價格戰；和 4）宏觀趨勢疲軟。
Valuation
估值
We increase our 2024/25/26E EPS forecasts by 15%/7%/1% to factor in strong product mix improvement YTD and company's strategy to prioritise profitability over market share gain. We use 22x (was 24x) 2025E EPS to value Sunny Optical. Maintain BUY and unchanged TP of HK$69.
我們將2024/25/26E每股收益預測上調15%/7%/1%，以體現今年迄今爲止產品結構的強勁改善以及公司優先追求利潤能力而非市場份額的策略。我們使用22倍（原爲24倍）2025年預測每股收益來估值舜宇光學。繼續維持買入評級，目標價保持不變，爲69港幣。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
