XPENG INC.(9868.HK):2Q24 MARGIN BEAT BUT CASH FLOW WEAKER THAN EXPECTED
XPENG INC.(9868.HK):2Q24 MARGIN BEAT BUT CASH FLOW WEAKER THAN EXPECTED
In 2Q24, total revenue rose by 23.9% QoQ, slightly beat on higher VW technical service revenue. Despite a substantial QoQ pullback of vehicle ASP on weaker product mix, 2Q24 vehicle margin beat our estimate by improving c.1ppt QoQ, while blended gross margin recovered to historic high of 14%. We expect further upside for vehicle margin in 2H24. On the other hand, the cash flow in 2Q24 was below expectation with cash burn of c.RMB4bn for the quarter, while 3Q24 revenue guidance implies QoQ plunge up to RMB50k in revenue per vehicle, below expectation given the escalated entry-level MONA sales mix as well as changeover of overseas distribution mode. In light of lower visibility of new model picture next year, we trim TP to US$12.00/HK$46.00 by adopting 2x 2024E P/S. Maintain BUY, but we feel investors may not regain confidence until getting definite information regarding new order intake for new products and sales recovery momentum.
在2Q24,總收入環比增長23.9%,略高於較高的大衆技術服務收入。儘管產品混合較弱,2Q24車輛ASP大幅環比回調,但2Q24車輛毛利率超過了我們的預期,環比提高約1個百分點,而混合毛利率回升至歷史高位14%。我們預計2H24車輛毛利率將進一步上漲。另一方面,2Q24的現金流低於預期,季度現金流燒損約40億元人民幣,而3Q24的營收指引暗示每輛車的環比下滑高達RMB 5萬,低於預期的原因是,低端MONA銷售比重提高以及海外分銷模式的改變。鑑於明年新車型計劃的能見度較低,我們通過採用2倍2024E P / S將目標價調低至12.00美元/ 46.00港元。繼續買入,但我們認爲投資者可能在獲得新產品的明確訂單和銷售復甦動能的確切信息之前無法恢復信心。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
2Q24 revenue slightly beat on greater Volkswagen technical service revenue. 2Q24 revenue rose 23.9% QoQ to RMB7.98bn, slightly beating our original forecast on higher service revenue which climbed 28.8% QoQ to RMB1.3bn, mostly related to Volkswagen technical service on G9 platform technology (RMB500m vs. RMB300m in 1Q24). Vehicle sales were largely in line with ASP down by 11.2% QoQ at RMB226k, due to the lower sales proportion of high-priced X9 MPV sales mix. Heading into 2H24, we expect a steady growth of service revenue with the addition of VW technical service revenue from E/E architecture technology on top of current G9 platform revenue.
2Q24的收入略高於大衆技術服務收入。2Q24收入環比增長23.9%至79.8億元人民幣,略高於我們的原始預測,這主要得益於服務收入的提高,服務收入環比增長28.8%,達到13億元人民幣,其中大部分與大衆技術服務相關,使用G9平台技術(2Q24 RMB5000萬,1Q24 RMB3000萬)。車輛銷售ASP下降11.2%,達到22.6萬元人民幣,主要因高價位X9 MPV銷售比例較低導致。進入2H24,我們預計服務收入將穩步增長,除如今的G9平台收入外,還將新增大衆技術服務收入,這是在E / E架構技術之上。
Vehicle margin beat expectation in 2Q24 driven by cost reduction benefits and enhanced economies of scale. The vehicle margin extended improvement QoQ at 6.4% in 2Q24. If adding back the continued inventory provision and losses on purchase commitment related to P5's EOP close to RMB200m, we estimate the adjusted vehicle margin could reach c.9% in 2Q24, above our estimate, with further cost reduction benefits and stronger economies of scale more than offsetting the adverse impacts from weakening product mix with much lower X9 proportion (17% in 2Q24 vs.36% in 1Q24).
2Q24的車輛毛利率超過預期,這要歸功於成本減少和規模經濟的提升。2Q24車輛毛利率環比繼續改善,達到6.4%。如果加上由於P5的EOP關閉而導致的繼續庫存準備和購買承諾損失,金額接近2億元人民幣,我們估計經過調整的2Q24車輛毛利率可能達到約9%,高於我們的預期,通過進一步降低成本和更強的規模經濟效益,更好地抵消了產品混合的不利影響,而X9的比例則大幅降低(2Q24爲17%,1Q24爲36%)。
We expect to see further upside for vehicle margin improvement in 2H24. Despite potential margin dilution from increasing entry-level MONA sales mix that featured with meager margin, we see potential further upside for vehicle margin improvement in 2H24 given the escalated lucrative exports mix (i.e. G6/G9 global delivery), improving economies of scale, ramp-up of P7+ model with fine-tuned cost structure as well as the removal of P5 EOP impacts. Moreover, we expect overall gross margin set to hold steady at low-to-mid teens level in 2H24, with the help of vehicle margin improvement and constant increase in technical service's gross profit scale.
我們預計在2024年下半年將進一步提高車輛毛利率。儘管可能會受到低端MONA銷售比例增加的毛利率稀釋的影響,但我們預計在2024年下半年,由於更多盈利的出口業務 (G6/G9 全球交付),不斷提升的規模效益,成本結構調整的 P7+ 車型的推出以及P5 EOP 影響的消除,車輛毛利率將有進一步提升的潛力。此外,我們預計整體毛利率在2024下半年將持穩在低至中等的兩位數水平,通過車輛毛利率的提升和技術服務毛利的持續增長來實現。
Net loss moderately declined QoQ whereas cash burn persisted against improving delivery scale. Despite larger revenue scale and stronger gross margin, 2Q24 operating losses slightly narrowed QoQ to RMB1.6bn as overall OPEX input increased slightly QoQ to RMB3bn. The mixed picture from stronger GPM and higher OPEX outlay led to a moderate QoQ decline of non-GAAP net loss from RMB1.4bn in 1Q24 to RMB1.2bn in 2Q24. In addition, the company continued to burn cash with a decrease of net cash by RMB4bn in 2Q24 (vs. a decrease of RMB5.8bn in 1Q24) against improving delivery scale. Management guided cash flow would be significantly improved in 2H24 with year-end cash higher than that as of end-2Q24, implying a positive free cash flow in 2H24.
儘管營收規模擴大,毛利潤增加,但淨虧損環比略有下降,而現金燒損情況仍持續惡化。2024年第2季度,由於總運營費用略微環比增加至30億人民幣,出現了總毛利潤增加和運營費用增加並存的情況下,操作虧損環比略微收窄至16億元人民幣。從非GAAP淨虧損角度看,由於2024年第2季度,相對於2024年第1季度的14億元人民幣淨虧損,2024年第2季度的淨虧損環比略微下降至12億元人民幣。此外,儘管交付規模有所提高,但公司在2024年第2季度的淨現金減少了40億元人民幣(相對於2024年第1季度減少58億元人民幣),現金燒損情況仍然存在。管理層預計,2024年下半年將實現大幅改善的現金流,年底的現金餘額將高於2024年第2季度末的餘額,暗示2024年下半年將實現正面自由現金流。
3Q24 delivery guidance largely in line but QoQ plunge in revenue per vehicle missed expectations. For 3Q24, the company guided a wider range of quarterly deliveries at 41k-45k units, implying monthly average sales of 15k- 17k in Aug/Sep, largely in line. Nonetheless, the revenue guidance indicated QoQ plunge by up to RMB50k in revenue per vehicle, from RMB269k in 2Q24. This could be explained by deteriorated product structure with escalated entry- level MONA M03 mix that may tag RMB100k lower than XPeng's existing blended vehicle ASP, and the changeover of overseas distribution mode from dealer mode to general agency mode. According to the mgmt., they have switched the distribution mode for exports from previous dealer mode to simple agency mode under FOB trade, for which the agreements are cheaper and cost-effective.
第3季度交付指導基本符合預期,但車輛單車收入環比大幅下降未達預期。就第3季度而言,公司指導每季度交付範圍在4.1萬至4.5萬輛之間,這意味着8月/9月的每月平均銷售量在1.5萬至1.7萬輛之間,基本符合預期。然而,營業收入指導顯示每輛車環比下降了多達5萬人民幣,從2024年第2季度的26.9萬元人民幣下降。這可以解釋爲低端MONA M03銷售比例的惡化,其單車收入可能比小鵬現有車型的平均售價低出10萬元,以及由經銷商模式轉爲一般代理商模式的境外分銷方式的轉變。據管理層表示,他們已經將從以前的經銷商模式轉變爲自由發貨貿易下的簡易代理商模式,該模式更爲便宜且具有成本效益。
Valuation
估值
We slightly trim our sales volume forecasts for 2024-25E to 170k/300k units, from prior 175k/330k units in light of the weaker demand on current XPeng lineups and lower visibility for new launches next year. To reflect higher gross margin, we lower non-GAAP net loss forecast for 2024 from RMB5bn to RMB4.8bn, while leaving that for 2025 largely intact at RMB3.3bn.
鑑於小鵬汽車目前產品線需求疲軟和明年新車上市的可見性下降,我們略微調整了2024-25E銷售成交量預測,從之前的175k/33萬輛調整至170k/30萬輛。爲反映更高的毛利率,我們將2024年非GAAP淨虧損預測從人民幣50億元降至48億元,而2025年預測基本保持在33億元。
During the earnings call, the mgmt. conveyed confidence over the strong product cycle with fine-tuned cost structure and ungraded AD functionalities ahead, led by the massive deliveries of MONA 03 and P7+ in 4Q24. Yet, they did not give specific color on future pipelines for 2025-26. Witnessing the weakening demand on XPeng's existing lineups and intensifying competition dynamics in mainstream and entry-level NEV segments, we feel investors may not regain confidence in the company's future prospects until getting definite information regarding new order intake for new products and sales recovery momentum.
在業績會上,管理層表達了對強勁產品週期、成本結構微調和升級後的AD功能的信心,這主要得益於四季度MONA 03和P7+的大規模交付。然而,他們沒有提到2025-26年未來產品線的具體情況。鑑於小鵬汽車現有產品線需求疲軟和主流及入門級新能源汽車領域競爭態勢加劇,我們認爲投資者可能在獲得有關新產品訂單和銷售復甦動力的確切信息之前,對公司未來前景恢復信心。
In light of lower visibility of new model picture next year, we revise down our TP from US$18.00/HK$80.00 to US$12.00/HK$46.00, by adopting 2x 2024E P/S ratio vs. 2x 2025E P/S multiple before. Maintain BUY. The upcoming catalysts include the official release of MONA 03 next week and subsequent delivery ramp- up trend in 4Q24.
基於明年新車型畫面可見度降低,我們將目標價從18.00美元/80.00港幣下調至12.00美元/46.00港幣,採用2倍2024E市銷率對比2倍2025E市銷率。維持買入評級。即將發酵的催化劑包括下週MONA 03的官方發佈以及隨後四季度的交付增長趨勢。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。