TONGCHENG TRAVEL(780.HK):DRIVING FOR BALANCED BUSINESS GROWTH WITH MORE CONTROLLED MARKETING SPENDING
TONGCHENG TRAVEL(780.HK):DRIVING FOR BALANCED BUSINESS GROWTH WITH MORE CONTROLLED MARKETING SPENDING
Tongcheng Travel (TC) reported 2Q24 results: total revenue was RMB4.2bn, up 48% YoY, and was inline with Bloomberg consensus estimates; adjusted net income was RMB657mn, up 11% YoY, and was 4% better than consensus, which in our view was driven by efficient sales and marketing expense control. Overall travel demands are likely better than feared in 3Q24, while management guided to scale back user subsidy to drive for balanced and efficient business development amid current macro environment. Outbound travel demand remains a solid driver for long-term revenue and earnings growth for TC, in our view. We believe that the Company is well-positioned to benefit from the rising travel demand in lower tier cities over the long run, aided by enhanced product capability and strategic cooperation with Tencent. We transfer coverage with a BUY rating and a target price of HK$23.5, which translates into 18.7x adjusted 2024E PE.
同程旅遊（TC）發佈了2024年第二季度的財務報告：總收入爲42億元人民幣，同比增長48％，與彭博共識估計相符；調整後淨利潤爲6.57億元人民幣，同比增長11％，比共識高出4％，這在我們看來是由於高效的銷售和市場費用控制所致。總體而言，在當前宏觀環境下，旅行需求可能好於市場預期，管理層指導縮減用戶補貼，以推動平衡和高效的業務發展。我們認爲出境旅行需求仍將成爲TC長期營收和收益增長的重要推動力。我們認爲，公司在增強產品能力和與騰訊的戰略合作的支持下，處於良好的位置，能夠從下沉市場的旅行需求增長中受益。我們給予買入評級，並給出目標價爲港元23.5元，對應2024年調整後的市盈率爲18.7倍。
Core OTA business delivered solid revenue growth. In 2Q24, TC's core OTA business reached RMB3.5bn (83% of total revenue), up 23% YoY (1Q24: 23.9% YoY), among which transportation ticketing services/ accommodation reservation services/others revenue achieved YoY revenue growth of 16.6%/12.8%/87.3% YoY (1Q24: 25.6/15.6/36.0%). Revenue generated from Tourism business reached RMB719mn in 2Q24 and contributed to 16.9% of total revenue. Management highlighted a solid trend in user frequency improvement on its platform: the number of twelve- month accumulated number of travellers served reached 1.86bn in six month ended 30 June 2024, up 30% YoY, compared to annual paying users increase of 4.8% YoY during the same period. Also, the cross-sell ratio between transportation ticketing and other business and products has increased to 12% in 2Q24 (compared to low-single digit range prior to merger of Tongcheng and Elong).
核心OTA業務實現了可觀的營收增長。在2024年第二季度，TC的核心OTA業務達到了35億元人民幣（總收入的83％），同比增長23％（2024年第一季度：23.9％），其中交通票務/住宿預訂服務/其他收入實現了16.6％/12.8％/87.3％的同比收入增長（2024年第一季度：25.6％/15.6％/36.0％）。旅遊業務在2024年第二季度的收入達到了7.19億元人民幣，佔總收入的16.9％。管理層強調了平台上用戶頻次改善的堅實趨勢：截至2024年6月30日的六個月累計旅行者數量達到了18.6億，同比增長30％，而同期年度付費用戶增長4.8％。此外，交通票務和其他業務和產品之間的產品交叉銷售比例在2024年第二季度達到了12％（低於同程和藝龍合併之前的個位數區間）。
3Q travel demand likely better than feared. For 3Q24E, we estimate TC to ink total revenue of RMB4.9bn, up 47% YoY, driven by 20% YoY solid revenue growth of Core OTA business, and incremental revenue contribution from the consolidation of Tourism business. Within the Core OTA business, we expect combined revenue growth of 20% YoY for accommodation reservation services and transportation ticketing business, aided by: 1) mid-teens hotel room nights growth and expansion in take rate due to the scaling back of user subsidies; 2) solid transportation ticketing volume growth. We estimate a deceleration in Other revenue to 22% YoY in 3Q24, due to a high base for ads and membership services revenue. However, with proactive scaling back of user subsidies from management and drive for quality growth amid current macro backdrop, we estimate adjusted net profit growth of 33% YoY to RMB826mn in 3Q24E.
第三季度旅行需求可能好於市場預期。對於2024年第三季度，我們預計TC的總收入將達到49億元人民幣，同比增長47％，其中核心OTA業務實現了20％的同比收入增長，旅遊業務的整合貢獻了附加的收入。在覈心OTA業務中，我們預計住宿預訂服務和交通票務業務的綜合收入同比增長20％，受益於：1）十幾歲的酒店客房晚數增長和由於用戶補貼的縮減而導致的收入率擴張；2）交通票務的穩定增長。我們預計2024年第三季度其他收入同比增長22％，這是由於廣告和會員服務收入的基數較高。然而，由於管理層積極縮減用戶補貼並在當前宏觀背景下追求質量增長，我們預計2024年第三季度調整後的淨利潤同比增長33％，達到8.26億元人民幣。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
