KUAISHOU(1024.HK):INTACT EARNINGS GROWTH OUTLOOK; SOFT CONSUMPTION WEIGHS ON E-COMMERCE BUSINESS
KUAISHOU(1024.HK):INTACT EARNINGS GROWTH OUTLOOK; SOFT CONSUMPTION WEIGHS ON E-COMMERCE BUSINESS
Kuaishou announced 2Q24 results: total revenue was up by 12% YoY to RMB31.0bn, largely in line with consensus estimate; adjusted net profit grew by 74% YoY to RMB4.7bn, 8% ahead of consensus estimate thanks to better-than- expected cost optimization and opex control. E-commerce GMV growth (+15% YoY) in 2Q24 was slower than consensus expectation amid soft consumption sentiment and intense competition, and we expect the pressure to continue in 2H24E. Nonetheless, we remain upbeat on Kuaishou's FY24 earnings growth outlook on its solid online marketing business and margin expansion. We lift our FY24 adjusted net income forecast by 3% to factor in the better-than-expected cost optimization; but lower our SOTP-derived TP to HK$92.0 (previous: HK$97.0) in view of the headwinds faced by e-commerce business (which accounted for 54% of total valuation). We transfer coverage with a BUY rating.
快手宣佈2024年第二季度業績：總收入同比增長12％，達310億元人民幣，與共識預期大致相符；調整後淨利潤同比增長74％，達47億元人民幣，超過共識預期8％，得益於優於預期的成本優化和運營支出控制。由於消費情緒疲軟和激烈競爭，2024年第二季度電子商務GMV增長（同比增長15％）低於共識預期，我們預計壓力將在2024下半年持續。儘管如此，我們對快手的財年24年盈利增長前景持樂觀態度，基於其堅實的在線營銷業務和利潤率擴張。我們將調整後的財年24年淨收入預測上調3％以反映優於預期的成本優化；但鑑於電子商務業務所面臨的障礙（佔總估值的54％），我們將SOTP推導的目標價從97.0港元下調至92.0港元。我們給予買入評級。
Online marketing maintained solid growth; e-commerce GMV below expectation. Online marketing revenue grew by 22% YoY to RMB17.5bn in 2Q24, driven by solid growth of both external and enclosed loop marketing services. External marketing services revenue YoY growth rate accelerated in 2Q24, supported by strong demand from media, e-commerce and local services industries. Other services revenue was up by 21% YoY to RMB4.2bn in 2Q24. The YoY growth rate of e-commerce GMV decelerated to 15% in 2Q24 (1Q24/4Q23: +28/29% YoY). E-commerce MPUs maintained healthy growth of 14% YoY to 131mn in 2Q24, but this implies largely flattish average GMV per MPUs amid weak consumption sentiment. Live streaming revenue declined by 7% YoY to RMB9.3bn in 2Q24.
在線營銷保持着堅實的增長；電商GMV低於預期。2024年第二季度在線營銷收入同比增長22％，主要受到外部和封閉環路營銷服務的雙重增長推動。2Q24外部營銷服務營收同比增長加速，得益於來自媒體、電子商務和本地服務行業的強勁需求。其他服務收入在2Q24同比增長21％，達42億元人民幣。電子商務GMV同比增速在2Q24降至15％（1Q24/4Q23：同比增長28/29％）。2Q24電子商務MPU保持14％的健康增長，但這意味着GMV每MPU基本持平，即消費情緒疲軟。直播收入同比下降7％，達93億元人民幣。
Headwinds in e-commerce business to sustain in 2H24. Looking ahead in 3Q24E, we forecast total revenue to grow by 11% YoY, with online marketing/others/live streaming revenue +20/+18/-5% YoY respectively. We remain upbeat that Kuaishou's online marketing revenue growth will outpace sector growth in 2H24, underpinned by its optimized intelligent marketing solutions and incremental demand from short plays & mini games. We expect headwinds in e-commerce business to sustain and GMV to grow by 15% YoY in 3Q24E, mainly due to soft consumption and Kuaishou's relatively conservative subsidy strategy.
電商業務面臨的壓力將在2024下半年持續。展望3Q24E，我們預計總收入同比增長11％，其中在線營銷/其他/直播收入同比增長約爲20/18/-5％。我們保持對快手在線營銷收入增長的樂觀預期，預計其在2H24將超越行業增長，支撐其優化的智能營銷解決方案和短視頻和小遊戲的額外需求。我們預計電商業務將面臨壓力，GMV在3Q24E同比增長15％，主要是由於消費情緒疲軟和快手相對保守的補貼策略。
Intact earnings growth outlook. Adjusted NPM improved by 5.4ppt YoY to 15.1% in 2Q24, primarily due to favourable revenue mix shift and cost optimization. Domestic operating profit grew by 48% YoY to RMB4.5bn, while overseas operating loss narrowed by 65% YoY to RMB277mn in 2Q24. For 3Q24E, Kuaishou will continue to focus on executing its high- quality growth strategy. We expect adjusted NPM to expand by 1.5ppt YoY and adjusted net profit to grow by 25% YoY to RMB4.0bn in 3Q24E, fuelled by rising GPM and prudent expenses control.
完好的盈利增長前景。2Q24調整後NPm同比提高5.4個百分點至15.1％，主要是由於有利的收入組合變化和成本優化。國內營業利潤同比增長48％，至45億元人民幣，而海外營業虧損在2Q24同比縮小65％，至2.77億元人民幣。對於3Q24E，快手將繼續專注於執行其高質量增長策略。我們預計3Q24E調整後NPm同比擴大1.5個百分點，調整後淨利潤同比增長25％，至40億元人民幣，受升高的GPm和審慎控制的費用所推動。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。