JUNEYAO AIRLINES(603885):1H24 RESULTS IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS;WRITEOFF OF REPURCHASED SHARES BOOSTS RETURNS
JUNEYAO AIRLINES(603885):1H24 RESULTS IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS;WRITEOFF OF REPURCHASED SHARES BOOSTS RETURNS
Higher dividend payout ratio; plan to write off repurchased shares to boost investor confidence. The firm announced an interim dividend of Rmb197mn (tax included), raising its dividend payout ratio to around 40%. It plans to write off 15mn shares repurchased for ESOP, which we think will boost investor confidence.1H24 results in line with our expectation
1H24成果符合我們的預期
Juneyao Airlines announced its 1H24 results: Revenue rose 17% YoY to Rmb11bn, and net profit attributable to shareholders grew 509% YoY to Rmb489mn. In 2Q24, revenue rose 7% YoY to Rmb5.2bn and net profit attributable to shareholders reached Rmb118mn, turning around from a net loss a year ago (mainly due to a sharp YoY decline in FX losses), in line with our expectations.
吉祥航空宣佈2024年上半年收入同比增長17%至110億元人民幣，歸屬股東的淨利潤同比增長509%至4.89億元人民幣。2024年第二季度營業收入同比增長7%至52億元人民幣，歸屬股東的淨利潤達1.18億元人民幣，較去年同期的淨虧損有所改善（主要由於外匯期貨虧損大幅同比下降），符合我們的預期。
Profit before forex adjustments and taxes fell YoY, mainly due to industry-wide airfare declines. FX losses narrowed in 2Q24, and the firm's profit before forex adjustments and taxes was Rmb167mn (vs. Rmb313mn in 2Q23), due to falling airfares, and RPK revenue in 2Q24 fell 8% YoY. On the cost side, the average daily aircraft utilization rate reached 11.5 hours in 1H24 (1vs. 1.2h in 1H19 and 9.6h in 1H23).
外匯調整和稅前利潤同比下降主要是由於行業內航空票價的下降。2024年第二季度外匯虧損收窄，公司稅前利潤爲1.67億元人民幣（2023年第二季度爲3.13億元人民幣），由於機票價格下降和客運收入在2024年第二季度同比下降8%所致。在成本方面，2024年上半年平均每日飛機利用率爲11.5小時（2019年上半年爲1.2小時，2023年上半年爲9.6小時）
Higher dividend payout ratio; plan to write off repurchased shares to boost investor confidence. The firm announced an interim dividend of Rmb197mn (tax included), raising its dividend payout ratio to around 40%. It plans to write off 15mn shares repurchased for ESOP, which we think will boost investor confidence.
股息派發比率較高；計劃註銷回購的股份，以提高投資者信心。公司宣佈派發197萬元人民幣的中期股息（含稅），將其股息支付比率提高到40%左右。公司計劃註銷爲員工持股計劃回購的1500萬股份，我們認爲這將提高投資者的信心。
Trends to watch
需要注意的趨勢
Earnings resilient; benefits from flexible income policy amid falling airfares. The firm caters to both business and leisure travel demand. In 2Q24, its overall passenger load factor (PLF) rose 2.2ppt YoY, and revenue per available seat-kilometer (ASK) fell 6% YoY, delivering a smaller decline than passenger revenue kilometers (PRK). The firm strengthened cost control to enhance earnings resilience. Aircraft utilization rate recovered close to the pre-pandemic level, and unit non-fuel cost was 13% lower than in 1H19. We expect cost reduction to continue to boost earnings growth.
收益韌性強；在機票價格下降的背景下受益於靈活的收入政策。公司服務於商務和休閒旅行需求。2024年第二季度，其總客運量因子（PLF）同比上升2.2ppt，單位可用座公里收益（ASK）同比下降6%，下降幅度小於客運量公里（PRK）。公司加強成本控制，提高盈利韌性。飛機利用率已接近疫情前水平，單位非油成本比2019年上半年降低了13%。我們預計，成本的降低將繼續推動盈利增長。
Subsidiary 9Air reported record earnings; deliveries of 737 Max to boost growth. 9Air generated net profit attributable to shareholders of Rmb210mn in 1H24 (previous best record was Rmb260mn in 2023). It received two 737 Max aircrafts in 1H24, and expects another two to be delivered in 2H24.
子公司九元航空報告了創紀錄的收益；波音737 Max的交付將提振增長。九元航空在2024年上半年實現了歸屬於股東的淨利潤2.1億元人民幣（之前最佳記錄爲2023年的2.6億元人民幣）。在2024年上半年，它收到了兩架波音737 Max飛機，預計另外兩架將在2024年下半年交付。
Watch improvement in financial expenses and progress in overhaul of Pratt & Whitney's engines. We think the pressure on the firm's financial expenses rose due to the inclusion of operating leases in the balance sheet and rising interest-bearing liabilities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The firm's interest expenses stayed flat YoY and QoQ at Rmb700mn in 1H24. We suggest keeping an eye on the improvement in liabilities.
關注財務費用和普惠太空發動機改型的進展。我們認爲，疫情期間經營租賃在資產負債表中的納入和利息負債的上升增加了公司財務費用的壓力。公司利息費用在2024年上半年同比持平，環比持平，達到7億元人民幣。我們建議關注債務有所改善。
According to Planespotters, all of the firm's aircrafts were put into operation during the 2024 summer vacation. Considering the limited number of cycles of engines sent for overhaul, we expect the return of Pratt & Whitney engines to the factory for overhaul to partly affect the firm's capacity expansion in 4Q24. However, as 4Q is a traditional slack season, we think the impact on full-year business operations in 2024 should be manageable.
據Planespotters報道，公司的所有飛機都在2024年暑期放入了運營。考慮到送往大修的發動機循環次數的限制，我們預計Pratt & Whitney引擎的回收將在下半年某種程度上影響公司的產能擴張。然而，由於第四季度是傳統的淡季，我們認爲對2024年全年業務運營的影響應該是可以控制的。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
As industry-wide airfares have declined YoY YTD, we lower our 2024 and 2025 revenue forecasts 9.1% and 9.4% to Rmb23.75bn and Rmb25.86bn, and lower 2024 and 2025 attributable net profit forecasts 21.3% and 10.1% to Rmb1.65bn and Rmb2.51bn (mainly due to downward revisions to our RPK assumptions for domestic routes. The stock is trading at 15.0x 2024e and 9.9x 2025e P/E. We maintain OUTPERFORM, and cut our TP 14.2% to Rmb14.5 (19.4x 2024e P/E), offering 29.5% upside.
由於行業內航空票價今年以來同比下降，我們將對2024年和2025年的收入預測下調9.1%和9.4%，至237.5億元人民幣和258.6億元人民幣，將2024年和2025年歸屬於股東的淨利潤預期下調21.3%和10.1%，至16.5億元人民幣和25.1億元人民幣（主要是由於我們向下調整了國內線路RPk假設）。該股票的2024平均市盈率爲15.0倍，2025平均市盈率爲9.9倍。我們維持「跑贏大盤」評級，將目標價下調14.2%至14.5元人民幣（2024平均市盈率爲19.4倍），提供29.5%的上漲空間。
Risks
風險
Weaker-than-expected demand; rising oil prices; renminbi depreciation; large-scale grounding of aircraft fleet due to engine failure.
需求低於預期；油價上漲；人民幣貶值；大規模停飛飛機隊因發動機故障。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
