Savers Value Village, Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
Savers Value Village, Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
It's been a mediocre week for Savers Value Village, Inc. (NYSE:SVV) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to US$8.78 in the week since its latest second-quarter results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$387m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 67% to hit US$0.06 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Savers Value Village, Inc.(紐交所股票代號:SVV)股價在最新二季報公佈後的一週內下跌了12%,至8.78美元,這是一個平庸的一週。從總體來看,表現相當糟糕。儘管3,8700萬美元的營業收入符合分析師的預測,但法定收益大幅下降,每股收益僅爲0.06美元,低出估計值67%。這是投資者跟蹤公司績效的重要時刻,他們可以通過報告追蹤公司的表現,查看專家對於明年的預測,以及看業務預期是否有任何變化。我們認爲,讀者會發現分析師最新(法定)發佈收益預測值對於明年很有意思。
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Following last week's earnings report, Savers Value Village's eight analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$1.54b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 121% to US$0.52. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.57b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.62 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.
在上週公佈的業績後,Savers Value Village八名分析師預測2024年的營業收入爲15.4億美元,大約與過去12個月的水平相當。預測法定每股收益將躍升121%至0.52美元。然而,在最新收益公佈之前,分析師曾預計2024年的營業收入將達到15.7億美元,每股收益爲0.62美元。分析師似乎在最新公佈收益後變得更加看淡。雖然營收預測沒有變化,但EPS估計卻有了實質性的下調。
The average price target fell 23% to US$14.13, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Savers Value Village analyst has a price target of US$22.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$10.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
平均目標價格下降了23%至14.13美元,降低的收益預測與更低的估值估算明顯相關。還有一種方法考慮目標價格,就是查看分析師提出的價格目標範圍,因爲估值範圍廣泛可能表示業務的可能結果有不同的觀點。最樂觀的Savers Value Village分析師的目標價格爲每股22.00美元,而最悲觀的則爲每股10.00美元。請注意分析師目標價格之間的廣泛差距?對我們來說,這意味着潛在業務情況存在相當廣泛的範圍。
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Savers Value Village's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 9.4% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 11% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Savers Value Village.
了解這些預測背景的其中一種方法是將其與過去的表現以及同一行業中其他公司的表現進行比較。值得我們注意的是,預計Savers Value Village的營收增長將放緩,預計到2024年底的年化增長率爲3.4%,遠低於過去五年曆史平均年增長率的9.4%。將其與同一行業中其他(分析師預測)公司進行比較,預計其年收入增長率爲11%。因此,儘管預計營收增長將減緩,但行業整體預期增長速度也比Savers Value Village快得多。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Savers Value Village's future valuation.
最重要的一點是分析師下調了每股收益預測,這表明在公告收益後,市場情緒明顯下滑。好的一面是,營收預測沒有發生重大變化;但預測表明,它們的表現將不如整個行業。共識價格目標明顯下降,分析師似乎並不被最新的結果所安撫,從而導致對Savers Value Village未來估值的降低。
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Savers Value Village going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
請記住,考慮到長期的業務軌跡對於投資者來說要更加重要。我們對Savers Value Village的預測可延伸至2026年,您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Savers Value Village (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
儘管如此,必須考慮到投資風險的存在。我們已經確定了Savers Value Village的3個警示標誌(至少有1個警示標誌不太好),理解這些標誌應該是您的投資過程的一部分。
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