HORIZON CONSTRUCTION DEVELOPMENT(09930.HK):1H24 REVENUE INCREASED RAPIDLY;PROFIT MARGIN UNDER MILD PRESSURE
HORIZON CONSTRUCTION DEVELOPMENT(09930.HK):1H24 REVENUE INCREASED RAPIDLY;PROFIT MARGIN UNDER MILD PRESSURE
1H24 results slightly missed our expectations
1H24業績稍微低於我們的預期
Horizon Construction Development announced its 1H24 results: Revenue rose 16% YoY to Rmb4.87bn, and net profit attributable to shareholders grew 13% YoY to Rmb268mn. Results in 1H24 slightly missed our expectation and market consensus, due to the growing pressure on the operations of the aerial work platform (AWP) business.
地平線發展公佈了其1H24業績：營業收入同比增長16%至人民幣48.7億元，歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比增長13%至人民幣2.68億元。由於空中工作平台(AWP)業務運營面臨日益加劇的壓力，1H24業績略低於我們的預期和市場共識。
The AWP business segment continued to grow rapidly: In 1H24, the number of AWPs under management rose from 178,000 units at the end of 2023 to 205,000 units (+30% YoY). Specifically, the number of self- owned AWPs increased from 121,000 units at the end of 2023 to 131,000 units, and the subleased AWPs increased from 57,000 units at the end of 2023 to 73,000 units. We estimate that revenue of the AWP business segment increased merely around 15% YoY in 1H24, as the occupancy rate fell 7.9ppt YoY to 66% and rents also declined YoY. In particular, we estimate that revenue from subleased AWPs increased by 150% YoY to Rmb744mn.
空中工作平台（AWP）業務板塊持續快速增長：1H24期間，管理的AWP數量從2023年末的178,000台增至205,000台（同比增長30%）。其中，自營AWP數量從2023年末的121,000台增至131,000台，而租賃的AWP數量則從2023年末的57,000台增至73,000台。我們估計，1H24 AWP板塊的收入同比僅增長約15%，由於總的佔用率同比下降7.9個百分點至66%，同時租金也同比下降。尤其是，我們估計，租賃的AWP業務收入同比增長150%至人民幣7.44億元。
The engineering technological service business segment grew rapidly: The occupancy rates of support systems and formwork systems increased by 1.9ppt and 5.7ppt YoY to 67% and 76% in 1H24, and revenue from engineering technological services jumped 71% YoY to Rmb1.95bn in 1H24, as the company increased the efforts to undertake engineering projects.
工程技術服務板塊迅速增長：支撐系統和模板系統的佔用率分別同比增長1.9個百分點和5.7個百分點至67%和76%，1H24工程技術服務的收入同比躍升71%至人民幣19.5億元，由於公司增加了承接工程項目的力度。
GM was under mild pressure: In 1H24, the blended GM fell 2.1ppt YoY to 32%. Specifically, GMs of operating leasing services and asset management & other services dropped by 2.5ppt and 5.3ppt YoY to 37% and 32%, but GM of engineering technology services rose 6.3ppt YoY to 27%.
Gm呈輕微下降趨勢：1H24混合Gm同比下降2.1個百分點至32%。具體而言，運營租賃服務和資產管理及其他服務的Gm同比分別下降2.5個百分點和5.3個百分點至37%和32%，而工程技術服務的Gm同比上升6.3個百分點至27%。
Selling expenses increased; financial expenses declined: In 1H24, the period expense ratio fell 2.9ppt YoY to 25.8%. Selling expenses rose 116% YoY, with the selling expense ratio increasing by 2.5ppt YoY, due to increased overseas investments and double-packaged labor services. The financial expense ratio fell 3ppt YoY to 7.8ppt. In 1H24, fundraising cost fell 0.38ppt YoY to 3.99%.
銷售費用增加；財務費用下降：1H24費用和支出週期同比下降2.9個百分點至25.8%。銷售費用同比增長116%，銷售費用率同比增加2.5個百分點，由於增加了境外投資和雙重包裝勞務服務。財務費用率同比下降3個百分點至7.8個百分點。1H24籌資成本同比下降0.38個百分點至3.99%。
EBITDA grew slightly; profit margin fell: In 1H24, EBITDA rose 2% YoY to Rmb2bn, with EBITDA margin falling 5.6ppt YoY to 41%. Net profit grew 13% YoY, due to the adjustment of the depreciation policy at the beginning of 2024. Factoring out the impact of the aforementioned adjustment, net profit dropped by 31% YoY to Rmb165mn.
EBITDA略微增長；利潤率下降：1H24，EBITDA同比增長2%至人民幣20億元，而EBITDA利潤率同比下降5.6個百分點至41%。淨利潤同比增長13%，由於2024年初調整了折舊政策。若將前述調整的影響排除在外，淨利潤同比下降31%至人民幣1.65億元。
Operating cash flow remained stable; capex rose rapidly: Net operating cash flow rose 4% YoY to Rmb1.35bn. Capex increased by Rmb3.4bn YoY to Rmb4.37bn.
經營性淨現金流保持穩定；資本支出同比大幅上升：1H24，經營性淨現金流同比增長4%至人民幣13.5億元。資本支出同比增加34億元至人民幣43.7億元。
Debt-to-asset ratio rose slightly: Due to increased capex, the debt-to- asset ratio reached 68.7% in 1H24, up 3.2ppt from the end of 2023.
債務資產比略有上升：由於資本支出增加，1H24的債務資產比爲68.7%，比2023年底升高了3.2個百分點。
First dividend payment: The company announced that it would pay a dividend of HK$0.05/sh in October.
首次分紅：該公司宣佈將於十月份支付每股港幣0.05元的股息。
Trends to watch
需要注意的趨勢
Rapid consolidation in the domestic AWP industry; overseas business grows rapidly. Looking ahead, we think consolidation will continue in the domestic AWP industry in 1-2 years, given the rapid growth of AWP supply in China, industry-wide growing pressure on the occupancy rates and prices of AWPs, and small- and medium-sized companies facing headwinds in the industry. We expect the company to step up efforts to increase AWPs under management and gain market share. In addition, the company is expanding overseas. It currently has Rmb1bn overseas assets and 400 overseas employees. We expect overseas business operations to become a new growth engine and an earnings source for the company going forward.
國內AWP行業迅速整合；海外業務快速增長。展望未來，鑑於AWP在中國供應的迅速增長，行業整體佔用率和價格的增壓以及中小型企業面臨的困境，我們認爲國內AWP行業整合將在未來1-2年持續發展。我們預計公司將加大努力，增加管理的AWP數量並獲得市場份額。此外，公司正在擴大海外業務。目前，公司在海外擁有10億元資產和400名海外員工。我們預計海外業務將成爲該公司未來的新增長引擎和收益來源。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
We cut our 2024 and 2025 net profit forecasts 21% and 24% to Rmb1.05bn and Rmb1.16bn, as demand is under pressure. The stock is trading at 4.3x 2024e and 4.0x 2025e EV/EBITDA. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating, but cut our target price 33% to HK$2 to reflect the growing pressure on the AWP industry. Our TP implies 4.7x 2024e and 4.3x 2025e EV/EBITDA, offering 35% upside.
我們將2024年和2025年的淨利潤預測下調21%和24%至人民幣10.5億元和11.6億元，由於需求受到壓力。該股票當前的2024估值爲4.3倍，2025估值爲4倍的EV/EBITDA。我們仍維持跑贏大市評級，但將目標價下調33%至港幣2元，以反映AWP行業面臨的壓力增加。我們的TP意味着2024年的4.7倍和2025年的4.3倍的EV/EBITDA，提供35%的上漲空間。
Risks
風險
Increased pressure on the operations of the AWP business segment; disappointing overseas expansion.
空中工作平台（AWP）業務板塊的運營壓力加大；海外擴張業務不盡如人意。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。