The FiscalNote Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:NOTE) share price has softened a substantial 29% over the previous 30 days, handing back much of the gains the stock has made lately. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 48% share price drop.
Even after such a large drop in price, it's still not a stretch to say that FiscalNote Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.4x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Professional Services industry in the United States, where the median P/S ratio is around 1.5x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
How FiscalNote Holdings Has Been Performing
FiscalNote Holdings could be doing better as it's been growing revenue less than most other companies lately. It might be that many expect the uninspiring revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S ratio from falling. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
Keen to find out how analysts think FiscalNote Holdings' future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.
What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like FiscalNote Holdings' to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 3.8% gain to the company's revenues. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 73% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with revenue decreasing 1.6% as estimated by the six analysts watching the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 6.1% growth, that's a disappointing outcome.
In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that FiscalNote Holdings' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.
The Key Takeaway
FiscalNote Holdings' plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
While FiscalNote Holdings' P/S isn't anything out of the ordinary for companies in the industry, we didn't expect it given forecasts of revenue decline. When we see a gloomy outlook like this, our immediate thoughts are that the share price is at risk of declining, negatively impacting P/S. If the poor revenue outlook tells us one thing, it's that these current price levels could be unsustainable.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for FiscalNote Holdings (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.
If you're unsure about the strength of FiscalNote Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.