HORIZON CD(9930.HK):BACK TO CAPEX GROWTH MODEL TO ACHIEVE PRODUCT DIVERSIFICATION & OVERSEAS EXPANSION
HORIZON CD(9930.HK):BACK TO CAPEX GROWTH MODEL TO ACHIEVE PRODUCT DIVERSIFICATION & OVERSEAS EXPANSION
Horizon CD's core net profit in 1H24 dropped 16% YoY to RMB268mn, largely in line with our expectation. Horizon CD proposed HK$0.04/ share of interim dividend, the first time since listing. While Horizon CD maintains the asset-light model for its aerial work platform (AWP) leasing business in China, it is expanding the equipment portfolio through investing in material handling equipment and mining equipment, which took its capex up 3.6x YoY to RMB4.4bn in 1H24. Meanwhile, Horizon CD continues to see oversea markets as the growth driver (35 outlets as at end-Jun). We therefore forecast the net debt/equity ratio to rebound in 2024E. We revise down our 2024E/25E/26E earnings forecast by 2%/10%/12%, largely due to higher finance expense projections. We slightly cut our TP to HK$3.6 from HK$3.7, based on unchanged 10x 2024E P/E. Trading at <4x 2024E P/E, we think the downside risk is limited. n Key highlights in 1H24 results: Revenue grew 16% YoY to RMB4.9bn.
Horizon CD 1H24年度核心淨利潤同比下降16%，降至2.68億元人民幣，與我們的預期基本一致。Horizon CD 提議派發每股0.04港元的中期股息，這是上市以來的第一次。儘管 Horizon CD 在中國維持其輕資產模式的空中工作平台（AWP）租賃業務，但通過投資物料搬運設備和採礦設備來拓展設備組合，導致其1H24年度資本支出同比增長3.6倍，達到44億元人民幣。與此同時，Horizon CD 仍然將海外市場視爲增長驅動因素（截至6月底有35個分店）。因此，我們預測淨債務/股權比率將在2024年反彈。由於財務費用增加的預測，我們將2024E/25E/26E盈利預測下調2%/10%/12%。我們將目標價略微下調至3.6港元，基於不變的10倍2024E市盈率。以不到4倍2024E市盈率交易，我們認爲下行風險有限。主要亮點：1H24年度收入同比增長16%至49億元人民幣。
Gross margin contracted 2.1ppt YoY to 32%, as the 6.3ppt margin expansion of engineering service segment was offset by the contraction of operating lease (-2.5ppt) and asset management segment (-5.3ppt). Selling & distribution expense ratio increased 2.5ppt YoY to 5.4%. The net expected credit loss (ECL) ratio slightly dropped 0.5ppt YoY to 3.5%. Excluding the listing expense and interest expense & FX change from the redemption liabilities on pre-IPO investment in 1H23, core net profit in 1H24 dropped 16% YoY to RMB268mn. Operating cash inflow increased 4% YoY to RMB1.35bn. With investing cash outflow of RMB3.1bn, net debt to equity ratio rebounded to 164% at end-Jun (vs 147% at end-2023).
毛利率同比下降2.1個百分點，降至32%，工程服務業務毛利率擴張6.3個百分點被運營租賃業務（-2.5個百分點）和資產管理業務（-5.3個百分點）的萎縮抵消。銷售和分銷費用比率同比增加2.5個百分點，達到5.4%。預期信貸損失金額比率同比輕微下降0.5個百分點至3.5%。除去1H23年度IPO前投資贖回負債的上市費用和利息費用及外匯變化，1H24年度核心淨利潤同比下降16%，降至2.68億元人民幣。經營性現金流同比增長4%至13.5億元人民幣。在31億元人民幣的投資性現金流出流之後，截至6月底，淨債務/股權比率反彈至164%（2023年底爲147%）。
Operating lease services (39% of revenue). The segment revenue dropped 24% YoY to RMB1.9bn in 1H24, largely due to the decrease in rental rates and overall utilisation rate of AWPs that offset the increase in equipment volume and utilisation rate of neo-excavation systems and neo- formwork systems.
租賃服務（佔收入的39%）。該業務在1H24年度收入同比下降24%，降至19億元人民幣，這主要是因爲租金費率和AWP總利用率下降抵消了neo挖掘系統和neo模板系統的設備量和利用率的增加。
Engineering & technical services (40% of revenue). The segment revenue surged 71% YoY to RMB1.95bn in 1H24, with gross margin expanding by 6.3ppt YoY to 27%.
工程技術服務（佔收入的40%）。該業務在1H24年度收入同比激增71%，至19.5億元人民幣，毛利率同比擴張6.3個百分點至27%。
Asset management & other services (21% of revenue). The segment revenue surged 84% YoY to RMB1bn in 1H24. Breakdown: (1) Asset management service revenue surged 1.5x YoY to RMB744mn, driven by the adoption of an asset-light model for AWPs. The managed fleet size of AWPs grew >1.6x YoY to 73k units. (2) Trade and others revenue grew 10% YoY to RMB287mn. The segment gross margin contracted 5.3ppt YoY to 32%.
資產管理和其他服務（佔收入的21%）。該業務在1H24年度收入同比激增84%，達到10億元人民幣。分解：（1）資產管理服務收入同比激增1.5倍至7.44億元人民幣，受AWP輕資產模式的採用驅動。管理的AWP車隊規模同比增長超過1.6倍，達到7.3萬輛。（2）交易和其他收入同比增長10%至2.87億元人民幣。該業務的毛利率同比萎縮5.3個百分點至32%。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。