YUEXIU TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE(01052.HK):1H24 RESULTS MISS ON WEAK REVENUE AND INCREASED COST
YUEXIU TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE(01052.HK):1H24 RESULTS MISS ON WEAK REVENUE AND INCREASED COST
Toll revenue from controlled projects edged down; expiry of Beihuan Expressway's toll right weighed on investment income. Toll revenue fell 5.1% YoY to Rmb1.79bn in 1H24, as: 1) rainy and snowy weather increased in central and eastern China around the Chinese New Year holiday; 2) the number of toll-free days during holidays rose by four days compared with last year; and 3) traffic diversion caused by changes in road network. In 1H24, revenue of the Beierhuan Expressway fell 7.9% YoY due to the opening of Congpu Expressway, and revenue of the Daguangnan Expressway fell 8.1% YoY as roads of the Wuhuang Expressway were closed for construction, and traffic volume was diverted from the Wuyang Expressway.1H24 results miss our expectations
1H24的結果改善低於我們的預期
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure announced its 1H24 results: Revenue fell 5.6% YoY to Rmb1.83bn and net profit attributable to shareholders fell 26.5% YoY to Rmb314mn, missing our expectations as revenue was disrupted by rainy and snowy weather, while depreciation and amortization costs rose more than we expected. In 1H24, the firm paid an interim dividend of HK$0.12/sh, implying a dividend payout ratio of 58.5% (vs. HK$0.15/sh and 53.8% in 1H23).
粵海置地基礎設施公佈了1H24年報：營業收入同比下降5.6%至18.3億元人民幣，歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比下降26.5%至3.14億元人民幣，未達到我們的預期。營收受到陰雨雪天氣的影響，而折舊和攤銷費用上升超過我們的預期。在1H24中，該公司支付了股息每股港元0.12元，暫定派息比率爲58.5%（與1H23的股息每股港元0.15元和派息比率53.8%相比）。
Trends to watch
需要注意的趨勢
Toll revenue from controlled projects edged down; expiry of Beihuan Expressway's toll right weighed on investment income. Toll revenue fell 5.1% YoY to Rmb1.79bn in 1H24, as: 1) rainy and snowy weather increased in central and eastern China around the Chinese New Year holiday; 2) the number of toll-free days during holidays rose by four days compared with last year; and 3) traffic diversion caused by changes in road network. In 1H24, revenue of the Beierhuan Expressway fell 7.9% YoY due to the opening of Congpu Expressway, and revenue of the Daguangnan Expressway fell 8.1% YoY as roads of the Wuhuang Expressway were closed for construction, and traffic volume was diverted from the Wuyang Expressway.
受控項目收費收入微降；北環高速公路收費權到期影響投資收益。1H24年，收費收入同比下降5.1%至17.9億元人民幣，原因包括：1）中國中部和東部在春節期間出現了增多的陰雨雪天氣；2）與去年相比，假期期間的免費通行天數增加了四天；3）車輛通行分流由於道路紛繁變化。1H24年，貝爾環高速公路的收入同比下降7.9%，原因是由於聰鋪高速公路的開通，以及大廣南高速公路的收入同比下降8.1%。因爲悟黃高速公路爲施工而關閉，交通流量從武陽高速公路分流過來。
In addition, the firm recognized a loss of Rmb20.43mn in 1H24 as the toll rights of its associate project Guangzhou Beihuan Expressway ended on March 22, leading to a 56.7% decline in the firm's gains from the project.
此外，該公司還因其聯營項目廣州北環高速公路的收費權於2024年3月22日結束而在1H24年承認了損失2043萬元，導致該項目的收益較去年同期同比下降了56.7%。
Depreciation, amortization and maintenance costs rose; profitability declined. As the company's depreciation and amortization are based on expected toll traffic volume, the amortization of intangible land management rights increased 10.1% YoY despite a YoY decline in actual traffic volume in 1H24, and maintenance expenses increased 39.0% YoY due to rainy and snowy weather. As a result, the gross margin of road assets controlled by the company fell 6ppt YoY to 50.1% in 1H24. The firm's profitability weakened.
折舊、攤銷和維護費用上升，利潤率下降。由於公司的折舊和攤銷是根據預期的通行車輛數量計算的，即使實際通行量在1H24年同比下降，無形土地管理權的攤銷費用同比仍增加了10.1%，而由於陰雨雪天氣，保養費用同比上升了39.0%。因此，該公司控制的道路資產毛利率在1H24中同比下降6個PPT至50.1%。該公司的盈利能力在減弱。
In the medium and long term, we expect the firm to grow through M&A, reconstruction, expansion. According to corporate filings, the reconstruction and expansion of the firm's core road asset, Guangzhou North Second Ring Expressway, started construction in June 2024. We believe the completion of this project will further improve traffic capacity and extend the toll collection period. Moreover, Yuexiu Group has acquired Shandong Qinbin Expressway and Henan Pinglin Expressway. We believe these assets may be injected into the firm to further expand its assets and boost earnings.
在中長期內，我們預計該公司將通過併購、重組和擴張來增長。根據公司的文件，公司的核心公路資產——廣州北二環高速公路的重建和擴建於2024年6月開始施工。我們認爲，該項目的完成將進一步提高交通容量並延長收費期間。此外，越秀集團已收購山東欽賓高速公路和河南平林高速公路。我們認爲這些資產可能注入該公司，以進一步擴大其資產和提高盈利能力。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
We cut our 2024 and 2025 net profit forecasts 19.8% and 19.8% to Rmb659mn and Rmb692mn, as revenue came under pressure and costs rose more than we expected. The stock is trading at 8.2x and 7.8x 2024e and 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating, and we cut our target price 19.8% to HK$4.16, implying 9.5x 2024e and 9.1x 2025e P/E, and dividend yields of 7.3% in 2024 and 7.7% in 2025, offering 16.2% upside..
我們將2024年和2025年的淨利潤預測下調19.8%，至6.59億元人民幣和6.92億元人民幣，因營收承壓而費用上漲超過我們的預期。該股票的2024E和2025E市盈率分別爲8.2倍和7.8倍。我們維持其優於大市評級，將目標價下調19.8%至4.16港元，對應2024E和2025E市盈率分別爲9.5倍和9.1倍，以及2024年和2025年的股息收益率分別爲7.3%和7.7%，提供16.2%的上漲空間。
Risks
風險
Disappointing economic growth; higher-than-expected capex; changes in toll collection policies.
經濟增長不及預期；資本支出超預期；收費政策變化。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
