YUEXIU TRANSPORT(1052.HK):1H24 EARNINGS DOWN 27% YOY BELOW OUR EXPECTATION; EXPECT A BETTER 2H24E
YUEXIU TRANSPORT(1052.HK):1H24 EARNINGS DOWN 27% YOY BELOW OUR EXPECTATION; EXPECT A BETTER 2H24E
Capex guidance. Capex in 1H24 amounted to ~RMB300mn. Mgmt. guided a full year capex of RMB2bn (RMB1.7bn in 2H24E, comprising RMB1.2bn for the GNSR Expressway R&E project).Yuexiu Transport's net profit in 1H24 dropped 27% YoY to RMB314mn, 14% below our estimate. The miss was due to (1) lower-than-expected gross margin and (2) share of loss insured (RMB20mn) due to the expiration of concession right of Northern Ring Road starting from Mar 2024. Yuexiu Transport proposed interim dividend of HK$0.12/share, implying 58.5% dividend payout ratio (1H23: 53.8%). The Company expects an improvement of traffic in 2H24E, and expects a payout ratio target of 50-60% can be maintained. We are still positive on Yuexiu Transport, and expect asset injection from parent company to serve as a catalyst this year. Maintain BUY with an unchanged DCF-based TP of HK$5.9. n 1H24 results highlights. Revenue dropped 6% YoY to RMB1.82bn (~1% below our estimate). Gross margin narrowed 6.5ppt YoY to 50.1% (vs our estimate of 54.6%), due to operating deleverage. Profit from associates & JV dropped 41% YoY to RMB76mn, due to the expiration of concession right of Northern Ring Road in Mar 2024. Net finance expense dropped 14% YoY to RMB232mn, as effective interest cost reduced to 2.93% at end-Jun (vs 3.24% at end 2023). Net profit dropped 27% YoY to RMB314mn. Operating cash inflow dropped 12% YoY to RMB1.18bn. As at end Jun 2024, net debt/equity ratio was stable at 98.6% (vs 99% by end-2023).
粵秀交通1H24淨利潤同比下降27％至3.14億元人民幣，低於我們的估計14％。 錯過原因是：（1）毛利率低於預期（2）北環路特許權到期，由於損失保險分擔（2,000萬元人民幣）。 粵秀交通提議派發每股0.12港元的中期股息，暗示股息支付率爲58.5％（1H23：53.8％）。 公司預計2H24E交通情況將有所改善，並期望維持50-60％的支付比例目標。 我們仍然對粵秀交通持積極態度，預計母公司注資將成爲今年的催化劑。 保持買入，目標價爲5.9港元，基於DCF無變化。 1H24業績亮點。 營業收入同比下降6％至18.2億元人民幣（約低於我們的估計1％）。 毛利率同比下降6.5個百分點，至50.1％（與我們的預期54.6％相比），這是由於運營去槓桿化。 從聯營企業和合營企業的利潤同比下降41％至7600萬元人民幣，這是由於北環路的特許權在2024年3月到期。 淨財務費用同比下降14％至2.32億元人民幣，因爲截至6月底有效利率成本降至2.93％（截至2023年底爲3.24％）。 淨利潤同比下降27％至3.14億元人民幣。 經營現金流入同比下降12％至11.8億元人民幣。 截至2024年6月底，淨債務/股本比率穩定在98.6％（2023年底爲99％）。
Transfer of Northern Ring Road project. Yuexiu Transport reported RMB20mn share of loss as the concession right of Northern Ring Road project was expired on 22 Mar 2024. According to Yuexiu Transport, the transfer of the project is still in progress. Working force of the JV has been dismissed while the maintenance expense of the project is still borne by the JV.
北環路項目轉讓。 由於北環路特許權於2024年3月22日到期，粵秀交通報告了2,000萬元人民幣的損失分擔。 根據粵秀交通，該項目的轉讓仍在進行中。 JV的工作人員已被解僱，而項目的維護費用仍由JV承擔。
Impact of the commencement of Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge. Humen Bridge contributed RMB46mn share of profit in 1H24 (+6% YoY). According to Yuexiu Transport, the traffic diversion from Humen Bridge hit 36% in the first week of the commencement (30 Jun) of Shen-Zhong Bridge, and reduced to 17-26% afterwards. The overall impact at present is 25%, which is better than the Company's previous expectation of 28%.
深圳-中山大橋的開通對人民橋的影響。 人民橋在1H24中貢獻了46億元的利潤份額（同比增長6％）。 根據粵秀交通的說法，自深-中大橋於6月30日啓動以來，人民橋的交通分流率達36％，之後降至17-26％。 目前的總體影響爲25％，好於公司此前預期的28％。
Capex guidance. Capex in 1H24 amounted to ~RMB300mn. Mgmt. guided a full year capex of RMB2bn (RMB1.7bn in 2H24E, comprising RMB1.2bn for the GNSR Expressway R&E project).
資本支出指導。 1H24的資本支出總額約爲3億元人民幣。 管理層指導全年資本支出爲20億元人民幣（2H24E爲17億元人民幣，其中包括高鐵南北快線修復項目的12億元人民幣）。
Key risk factors: (1) diversion of traffic from other parallel toll roads, (2) rebound of gearing ratio and finance expenses, and (3) uncertainties on the GNSR expansion project.
關鍵風險因素：（1）來自其他平行收費公路的交通分流，（2）槓桿率和財務費用的反彈，以及（3）高鐵南北快線擴建項目的不確定性。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。