Veteran Wall Street Analyst Counters Recession Fears: 'We Don't Expect A Hard Landing Of The Economy'
Veteran Wall Street Analyst Counters Recession Fears: 'We Don't Expect A Hard Landing Of The Economy'
Veteran Wall Street investor Ed Yardeni challenged fears of a U.S. recession on Monday, opposing the prevailing market sentiment that unsettled global equities.
資深的華爾街投資者艾德·雅爾迪尼在週一挑戰了關於美國經濟衰退的擔憂，反對了當前動盪的全球股市預期。
"A weak July employment report does not make a recession," wrote Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, in a morning note published ahead of the stronger-than-expected ISM Services PMI report.
“七月份的就業報告弱勢並不意味着經濟衰退，”雅爾迪尼研究公司總裁Edward Yardeni在早間研報中撰寫，“在ISM服務業PMI報告出來之前，”
Yardeni argues that while the increases of 114,000 and 97,000 in July's total and private-industry payrolls were weaker than expected, they still represented growth.
雅爾迪尼認爲，儘管7月份總業務和私人行業的薪資增長114,000和97,000都低於預期，但它們仍代表了增長。
"There's no reason to think they will be followed up by decreases. In fact, we expect to see bigger increases in the August employment report early next month," he explained.
“沒有理由認爲它們將被下降所伴隨。事實上，我們預計在下個月初的8月份就業報告中看到更大的增長，”他解釋道。
Yardeni reiterated his confidence in the economy, stating, "We don't expect a hard landing of the economy." He further emphasized that the latest productivity data aligns with his "Roaring 2020s" outlook.
雅爾迪尼重申了他對經濟的信心，指出：“我們不期望經濟硬着陸。”他進一步強調，最新的生產力數據與他的“2020年代大爆炸”展望相一致。
Last week, Yardeni raised his year-end S&P 500 target to 5,800 points, now implying a 12% surge from current levels. He predicts that the S&P 500 index, as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), is set to reach 8,400 points by the end of the decade.
上週，雅爾迪尼將他的年底標普500指數目標上調至5800點，現在暗示從當前水平上漲12%。他預測，標普500指數，由SPDR標普500ETF信託（紐交所：SPY）跟蹤，將在本十年末達到8400點。
Yardeni Expects Employment Snap Back In August
雅爾迪尼預計八月份就業反彈
Yardeni argued that the stock market's adverse reaction to Friday's jobs report was exaggerated. It seemed to price in a hard landing and anticipated federal funds rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, including a potential 50-basis-point cut in September.
雅爾迪尼認爲，股市對上週五的就業報告的不利反應被誇大了。它似乎定價上了經濟硬着陸，預期聯儲局將削減聯邦基金利率，包括在9月份可能有的50個點子削減。
He also suggested that the market selloff was exacerbated by speculators scrambling to cover their carry trades in the "Magnificent 7" stocks — Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) — and other financial assets globally.
他還提出，市場拋售也被在“科技七巨頭”，Alphabet Inc. (納斯達克：GOOGL)，Amazon.com Inc. (納斯達克：AMZN)，Apple Inc. (納斯達克：AAPL)，Meta Platforms Inc. (納斯達克：META)，Microsoft Corp. (納斯達克：NVDA)和Nvidia Corp. (納斯達克：NVDA) — 和全球其他金融資產的基差交易者所加劇。
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"We believe that report was a weather-impacted anomaly and not representative of the strength of the U.S. labor market," they asserted.
“我們認爲該報告是一個受天氣影響的異常，並不代表美國勞動力市場的強勁，”他們斷言。
While the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) noted that Hurricane Beryl had no impact on the July employment report, Yardeni stated that the rise in the unemployment rate from 4.1% in June to 4.3% in July was influenced by inclement weather, including Beryl's impact on Texas.
雖然勞工統計局 (BLS) 指出颶風貝瑞不會影響七月份的就業報告，但雅爾迪尼稱失業率從6月份的4.1％上漲到7月份的4.3％受到惡劣天氣的影響，包括貝瑞對德州的影響。
Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted, "Strong job creation over the past couple of years has been accompanied by an increase in the supply of workers, reflecting increases in participation among individuals aged 25 to 54 years and a strong pace of immigration."
上週，聯儲局主席鮑威爾指出：“過去幾年中強勁的就業創造伴隨着工人供給的增加，反映了25至54歲年齡段的個人參與率和強勁的移民步伐的增加。”
As workers affected by July's inclement weather return to their jobs in August, Yardeni expects to see lower national unemployment claims and higher national payroll employment.
隨着受7月的惡劣天氣影響的工人在8月份回到他們的工作崗位，雅爾迪尼預計將會看到更低的全國失業金申請和更高的全國工資單就業。
"Fed officials have plenty of time between now and their speeches at the Jackson Hole symposium in a few weeks to digest the report and see what we're seeing," he stated.
“聯儲局官員們在幾周內的傑克遜霍爾研討會上演講之間有足夠的時間來消化報告並看看我們都注意到的情況，”他說。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。