Unwinding Of Japanese Yen Carry Trade Boosts The Case For 'Supersized' Rate Cut, Economist Says
Unwinding Of Japanese Yen Carry Trade Boosts The Case For 'Supersized' Rate Cut, Economist Says
The frenzied unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade — borrowing cheaply against the Japanese yen to buy high-growth stocks — may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates significantly when it meets in September.
在日元套戥交易劇烈清倉的情況下，聯儲局可能會在9月份會議上大幅減息。
"While we do not think at this time conditions are ripe for an emergency rate cut, the case for a supersized fifty basis point rate cut has been bolstered by the global unwinding of the carry trade," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with RMS US LLP.
"雖然我們目前認爲應急減息的條件還不成熟，但是全球套戥交易清倉現象支持了50個點子超大幅度減息的場景。" RMS US LLP 首席經濟學家喬·布魯維拉斯說。
Investors have been rushing for the exit on this investment strategy since Friday after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25% on July 31.
自日本銀行於7月31日將利率從0.1％上調至0.25％以來，投資者紛紛退出了這種投資策略。
Hedge funds and other investors held more than 180,000 contracts that were worth more than $14 billion at the start of July in a wager on a weaker yen, the Wall Street Journal reported. Those stakes had dropped to around $6 billion by last week.
根據《華爾街日報》的報道，對於日元疲軟的賭注，對沖基金和其他投資者在7月初持有超過18萬份合約，價值超過140億美元。到上週，這些份額已降至約60億美元。
The Fed might cut rates before the September meeting if the current market selloff continues, July's federal reports on consumer spending and prices give flat or negative readings and the August jobs report is weak, Brusuelas said.
如果當前市場拋售繼續下去，7月份有關消費支出和價格的聯邦報告顯示平穩或負面，而8月份的就業報告疲弱，那麼聯儲局可能在9月會議之前減息，布魯維拉斯說。
"As of now, the Fed is in wait and observe mode and will not want to do or say anything that would facilitate an intensification of the already enhanced panic across global financial markets," he said on Monday.
他在週一表示："目前，聯儲局的態度是觀望和觀察模式，不希望做出或說出任何促進全球金融市場恐慌加劇的事情。"
"They will need further justification for an intermeeting rate cut and weak inflation prints, or bad jobs report would be just that."
"他們需要進一步證明理由來進行會議間的減息，而疲弱的通脹數據或糟糕的就業報告將觸發類似這樣的行動。"
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 2.4%, or 950 points, as of Monday's mid-day trading. The Global X Dow 30 Covered Call ETF (NYSE:DJIA), which tracks the Dow, has declined 1.71%.
截至週一中午交易，道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌了2.4％，即950點。追蹤道瓊斯指數的 Global X Dow 30 Covered Call ETF (NYSE:DJIA) 下跌了1.71％。
- What Investors Should Know About Yen Carry-Trade Unwinding That Is Sending Global Markets Into A Tailspin
- 投資者應該知道關於日元交易的拆除，這正在引導全球市場陷入動盪。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。