Billionaire Ken Fisher: Legendary Investor or Marketing Genius? (Updated)
Billionaire Ken Fisher: Legendary Investor or Marketing Genius? (Updated)
The second attempt is made by Meb Faber, the co-founder and CIO of Cambria Investment Management. Faber published Ken Fisher’s returns in anarticleposted on his blog. According to Faber, between 1995 and 2014, Mr. Fisher’s picks lagged behind the BillionaireKen Fisheris in hot water because of his sexual comments at a financial services conference. Fisher is known for his prestigious Forbes column, titled “Portfolio Strategy”, which he has been writing since 1984, which makes him the longest-running columnist in the publication’s history. He also has written 11 books, four of which became New York Times bestsellers and has published many papers. However, Mr. Fisher, who has a net worth of around $4 billion, is mainly known as the founder, chairman, and ex-CEO of Fisher Investments , a financial adviser with offices in the US, England, and Germany.
億萬富翁肯·菲捨爾因在一次金融服務會議上發表性評論而陷入困境。費舍爾以他著名的福布斯專欄《投資組合策略》而聞名，他自1984年以來一直在撰寫這篇專欄文章，這使他成為該刊物歷史上運行時間最長的專欄作家。他還寫了11本書，其中4本成為了《紐約時報》的暢銷書，並發表了許多論文。然而，擁有約40億美元淨資產的費希爾主要以創始人、董事長和前首席執行官的身份而聞名費希爾投資公司，一家在美國、英國和德國設有辦事處的財務顧問。
Fisher Investments was founded in 1979 and Ken Fisher had served as the company’s CEO until 2016, when he was succeeded by Damien Ornani. Mr. Fisher still has an active role at the company, as he is executive chairman and co-chief investment officer. Ken Fisher is a brilliant marketer targeting wealthy people, with an investment minimum of $500,000. The fund charges a flat fee that varies between 1% and 1.5% depending on the size of the portfolio. He definitely knows how to get his clients write big checks. Ken Fisher got into trouble in October after using the words "trying to get into a girl's pants" andallegedly lost$1 billion in clients' funds. Ken Fisher's publicist sent us the following clarification regarding this incident: "Ken was speaking about mistakes that certain salespeople in the financial services industries make when trying to recruit new clients, and he said that many of them mistakenly treat it like a man making a lewd and inappropriate proposition to a woman at a bar. He was denouncing that approach."
費舍爾投資公司成立於1979年，肯·費舍爾一直擔任該公司的首席執行官，直到2016年，他的繼任者是達米恩·奧爾納尼。費希爾仍在該公司發揮積極作用，因為他是執行董事長兼聯席首席投資官。肯·費舍爾是一位出色的營銷者，目標客户是富人，他的最低投資額為50萬美元。該基金收取的固定費用在1%至1.5%之間，具體取決於投資組合的規模。他絕對知道如何讓他的客户開出大筆支票。去年10月，肯·費舍爾因使用“試圖進入女孩的褲子”一詞而惹上麻煩，據稱他損失了10億美元的客户資金。肯·費舍爾的公關人員就這一事件向我們做出了以下澄清：“肯説的是金融服務業的某些銷售人員在試圖招募新客户時所犯的錯誤，他説，他們中的許多人錯誤地將其視為一名男子在酒吧向一名女子提出下流和不適當的建議。他譴責這種做法。”
We don't really know Ken Fisher's exact performance figures. There are a couple of attempts we will share though. The first one was calculated by Forbes, based on his public stock picks revealed in his columns. The publication estimated in 2015, that over the previous 18 years, Mr. Fisher outperformed the broad US stock market by an average of 4.2 percentage points annually. Keep in mind that these are probably his "best stock picks". He shares them as part of his marketing strategy. His actual returns are likely to be worse than this figure.
我們真的不知道肯·費舍爾的確切表現數據。儘管如此，我們還是會分享一些嘗試。第一個是福布斯根據他在專欄中披露的公開股票選擇計算得出的。該出版物在2015年估計，在之前的18年裏，費希爾的表現平均每年比美國股市高出4.2個百分點。請記住，這些可能是他的“最佳股票選擇”。他將它們作為自己營銷策略的一部分進行分享。他的實際回報可能會比這個數字更差。
The second attempt is made by Meb Faber, the co-founder and CIO of Cambria Investment Management. Faber published Ken Fisher’s returns in anarticleposted on his blog. According to Faber, between 1995 and 2014, Mr. Fisher’s picks lagged behind the MSCI World Index in 10 years, including four consecutive years between 2011 and 2014. We profile Ken Fisher in detail ina separate articleand went over his fund and returns. Please read that article for more information.
第二個嘗試是由Cambria Investment Management的聯合創始人兼首席信息官梅布·費伯進行的。費伯在他的博客上發表了一篇文章，公佈了肯·費舍爾的申報單。根據Faber的説法，在1995到2014年間，費舍爾的選擇落後於MSCI明晟世界指數10年，包括2011年至2014年連續四年。我們在單獨的文章中詳細介紹了肯·費舍爾，並審查了他的基金和回報。有關更多信息，請閲讀那篇文章。
When we go through Fisher's top stock picks we noticed that his top stock picks are among the largest companies in the world. It looks like Fisher's investment approach resembles the investment approach of a passive index fund. However, we also noticed that it doesn't follow the S&P 500 Index perfectly. So, there is some stock picking involved. For example, Fisher's top position is Visa Inc (NYSE:V). Fisher allocated $3.4 billion to Visa, 3.8% of his 13F portfolio, and currently control 0.9% of Visa's outstanding shares.
Fisher's second, third, and fourth biggest positions are Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT). Fisher allocated $3.15 billion to Apple Inc, $3.06 billion to Amazon.com Inc., and $2.97 billion to Microsoft Corp. These three stocks are the three largest stocks trading in US markets and Fisher allocated very similar weights to these stocks. This means Fisher favors Visa over the biggest stocks and Amazon is his favorite mega-cap stock with a slight edge over Microsoft and Apple.
Fisher's fifth biggest position is Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA). Fisher allocated $2.25 billion to Alibaba Group Holding Limited at the end of September. That's 30% less than Fisher's Apple allocation. Fisher's sixth largest stock position is Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) with a position size of $1.8 billion. Alphabet's market cap was slightly behind Amazon.com Inc's at the end of September, yet Fisher give Amazon a 70% higher weight than Alphabet.
費希爾的第五大頭寸是阿里巴巴-SW集團控股有限公司(紐約證券交易所代碼：阿里巴巴)。費舍爾撥出22.5億美元阿里巴巴-SW集團控股在9月底有限制。這比費舍爾分配給蘋果的份額少了30%。費希爾持有的第六大股票是Alphabet，持倉規模為18億美元。9月底，Alphabet的市值略低於亞馬遜，但費舍爾給予亞馬遜的權重比Alphabet.
The most interesting observation we have is that Fisher's Facebook position was only $74 million. Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Alibaba are some of the most popular stocks among hedge funds. Even Visa is a top 10 hedge fund stock. Our calculations showed thattop 20 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 37.4% in 2019 through the end of November and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 9.9 percentage points. We noticed that several of Ken Fisher’s top stock picks are among the30 most popular stocks among hedge funds(click for Q3 rankings and see the video below for Q2 rankings). However, some of the popular hedge fund stocks were missing or underweighted. For example, Facebook returned more than 50% this year and Ken Fisher was significantly underweight the stock.
我們觀察到的最有趣的情況是，費舍爾在Facebook上的頭寸只有7400萬美元。臉書、微軟、亞馬遜、Alphabet和阿里巴巴-SW是對衝基金中最受歡迎的股票之一。就連Visa也是十大對衝基金股票之一。我們的計算顯示，截至11月底，對衝基金中最受歡迎的20只股票在2019年的回報率為37.4%，表現比標準普爾500指數ETF(標普500ETF)高出9.9個百分點。我們注意到，肯·費舍爾挑選的幾隻最受對衝基金歡迎的股票躋身於30只最受歡迎的股票之列(點擊查看第三季度排名，查看下面的視頻查看第二季度排名)。然而，一些通俗對衝基金股票要麼缺失，要麼權重過低。例如,Facebook今年的回報率超過50%，肯·費舍爾嚴重低估了該股的權重。
Video: Click the image to watch our video about the top 5 most popular hedge fund stocks.
視頻：點擊圖片觀看我們關於最受歡迎的5只對衝基金股票的視頻。
Fisher Investments isn't a closet index fund. The biggest 5 stock positions in his 13F portfolio, namely Visa, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Alibaba (BABA) account for 16% of his performance. This is similar to the weight of top 5 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. The difference is Fisher overweights stocks like Visa and Alibaba, and underweights Facebook and Berkshire Hathaway. Basically it is sort of an "enhanced" index fund, but we don't really know much about its returns. We don't think Fisher can ever outperform or underperform the market by double digits. It is our opinion that he is a billionaire not because he is a legendary investor but because he is a marketing genius.
Fisher Investments不是一隻私下的指數基金。他的13F投資組合中最大的5只股票頭寸，即維薩、蘋果(納斯達克：AAPL)、亞馬遜(納斯達克：AMZN)、微軟(納斯達克：MSFT)和阿里巴巴-SW(阿里巴巴)佔其業績的16%。這與標準普爾500指數中排名前5位的股票的權重相似。不同的是，費舍爾增持了Visa和阿里巴巴-SW等股票，而減持了Facebook和伯克希爾哈撒韋。基本上，它是一種“增強型”指數基金，但我們對它的回報並不是很瞭解。我們認為，費舍爾永遠不可能跑贏大盤或落後於大盤兩位數。我們認為，他之所以成為億萬富翁，不是因為他是一位傳奇投資者，而是因為他是一位營銷天才。
Disclosure: No positions. This article is originally published atInsider Monkey. This article is updated on December 11, 2019 to include Ken Fisher's publicist's comments about the words that got Ken Fisher into a PR nightmare.
披露：沒有頭寸。本文最初發表在Insider Monkey上。這篇文章於2019年12月11日更新，收錄了肯·費舍爾的公關人員對讓肯·費舍爾陷入公關噩夢的言論的評論。
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