It's been a sad week for Patria Investments Limited (NASDAQ:PAX), who've watched their investment drop 12% to US$11.52 in the week since the company reported its second-quarter result. Results overall were not great, with earnings of US$0.0053 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit US$75m and were slightly better than forecasts. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Patria Investments after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Patria Investments' four analysts is for revenues of US$348.4m in 2024. This would reflect a notable 10% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 86% to US$1.00. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$345.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.05 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$18.11, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Patria Investments at US$23.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$14.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Patria Investments' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 21% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 16% per annum over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Patria Investments is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Patria Investments. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$18.11, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Patria Investments going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Patria Investments (1 is a bit concerning!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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