Last week, you might have seen that Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.6% to US$34.68 in the past week. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$3.71 per share on revenues of US$4.5b, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

After the latest results, the consensus from Ternium's nine analysts is for revenues of US$18.6b in 2024, which would reflect a perceptible 4.2% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Earnings are expected to improve, with Ternium forecast to report a statutory profit of US$9.95 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$18.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.62 in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a massive increase in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$49.27, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ternium at US$57.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$41.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 8.3% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 15% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.2% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Ternium is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Ternium's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Ternium's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$49.27, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Ternium going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Ternium .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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