JIAYOU INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS(603871):ASSESSMENT TARGETS OF 2024 ESOP HIGHER THAN MARKET EXPECTATIONS
JIAYOU INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS(603871):ASSESSMENT TARGETS OF 2024 ESOP HIGHER THAN MARKET EXPECTATIONS
What's new
有什麼新消息
Jiayou International Logistics (Jiayou) announced its 2024 employee stock ownership plan (ESOP). The firm will grant no more than 3.07mn shares (0.31% of the firm's share capital) to no more than 122 employees for Rmb11.45/sh (vs. the firm's closing price of Rmb16.49/sh on July 29, 2024).
嘉友國際物流(嘉友)宣佈其2024年員工股權激勵計劃(ESOP)。該公司將以人民幣11.45元/每股的價格授予不超過122名員工3.07百萬股股票(佔公司股份總額的0.31%),比2024年7月29日公司的收盤價16.49元/每股低。
Comments A CAGR of 36% in attributable net profit over 2023-2026 is a prerequisite to unlock shares, higher than market expectations.
評論認爲,2023-2026年歸屬於大股東的淨利潤年複合增長率達36%是解鎖股份的前提條件,高於市場預期。
According to corporate filings, the firm will determine the proportion of shares granted to employees based on the higher value between net profit growth and cumulative net profit growth over 2024-2026. Specifically, prerequisites to unlock the shares include: 1) Attributable net profit in 2024, 2025, and 2026 increasing by 50%, 35%, and 25% YoY to Rmb1.56bn, Rmb2.11bn, and Rmb2.63bn; or, 2) attributable net profit in 2024 reaching Rmb1.56bn and cumulative attributable net profit growing to Rmb3.66bn over 2024-2025 and Rmb6.3bn over 2024-2026. These targets indicate a CAGR of 36.3% in attributable net profit over 2023- 2026, higher than the Wind consensus of 22.3%.
根據公司文件,該公司將根據 2024-2026 年淨利潤增長和淨利潤累計增長之間的較高值來確定授予員工股份的比例。具體而言,解鎖股份的前提條件包括:1)2024年、2025年和2026年的歸屬於大股東的淨利潤同比分別增長50%、35%和25%,達到16億元、21.1億元和26.3億元;或者2)2024年的歸屬於大股東的淨利潤達到16億元,並且在2024-2025年累計歸屬於大股東的淨利潤達到36.6億元,在2024-2026年達到63億元。這些目標表明,2023-2026年歸屬於大股東的淨利潤年複合增長率達36.3%,高於Wind共識的22.3%。
Wide coverage is conducive to motivating employees. This round ofESOP covers no more than 122 employees (vs. the coverage of no more than 41 employees in 2022), and has established a personal performance evaluation system. Therefore, we think this round of ESOP is more flexible but also more challenging for employees. In our view, the ESOP can effectively link the interests of the firm and its shareholders to those of employees and substantially incentivize employees.
廣泛覆蓋有利於激勵員工。這輪ESOP僅涵蓋不超過122名員工(2022年不超過41名),並建立了個人績效評估制度。因此,我們認爲這輪ESOP對員工來說更加靈活但也更具挑戰性。在我們看來,ESOP能夠有效地將公司及其股東的利益與員工利益聯繫起來,並大大激勵員工的積極性。
Assessment targets of the ESOP are higher than market expectations, possibly because the market underestimated the growth momentum of Jiayou's businesses in China, Mongolia, and Africa.
ESOP的評估目標高於市場預期,可能是因爲市場低估了嘉友在中國、蒙古和非洲業務增長的動能。
China-Africa business: According to corporate filings, Jiayou completed the acquisition of BHL's fleet in 2Q24. We believe the firm will enhance its inland transportation network in Africa and gradually expand its logistics business from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to the central and southern parts of Africa. In addition, we believe that the production capacity of the Sakaniya project (on the Zambia-DRC border) will likely increase rapidly after the project commences operation, driven by increasing car traffic from the Sakaniya dry port in the DRC.
中非業務:根據公司文件,嘉友在2024年第二季度完成了對BHL艦隊的收購。我們認爲該公司將加強其在非洲內陸運輸網絡,並逐步將其物流業務從剛果民主共和國擴展到中南部非洲。此外,我們認爲薩卡尼亞項目的產能(位於贊比亞-剛果民主共和國邊境)在該項目開始運營後將會快速增加,受剛果民主共和國薩卡尼亞幹港汽車交通量的推動。
China-Mongolia business: We believe the firm will continue to expand its market share in Ganqimaodu port on its logistics resource integration capabilities. We also expect it to leverage the capabilities to develop businesses in other ports.
中蒙業務:我們認爲該公司將繼續利用其物流資源整合能力擴大其在幹磾口港的市場份額。我們還預計它將利用這些能力在其他港口拓展業務。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
We keep our earnings forecasts unchanged. Our earnings forecast for 2025 does not factor in the commencement of the firm's Sakaniya project.
我們保持不變的盈利預測。我們對2025年的盈利預測不考慮該公司薩卡尼亞項目的開始。
The stock is trading at 10.7x 2024e and 8.8x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and our TP of Rmb22.89, implying 14.8x 2024e and 12.3x 2025e P/E, offering 38.8% upside.
該股票目前的市盈率爲10.7倍2024年預測利潤和8.8倍2025年預測利潤。我們維持OUTPERFORM評級和我們的目標價22.89元人民幣,意味着14.8倍2024年預測利潤和12.3倍2025年預測利潤,提供38.8%的上行空間。
Risks
風險
Slower-than-expected capacity expansion in Africa; geopolitical conflicts.
非洲擴張能力增長速度低於預期;地緣政治衝突。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。