Veteran Investor Boosts S&P 500 Price Targets: 'Magnificent 7 Stocks Will Remain Magnificent'
Veteran Investor Boosts S&P 500 Price Targets: 'Magnificent 7 Stocks Will Remain Magnificent'
Ed Yardeni has turned even more bullish on the S&P 500.
Ed Yardeni更看好標普500指數。
What Happened: The veteran Wall Street investor is hiking his year-end target and forecasting a significant surge by the end of this decade fueled by robust earnings and technological advancements.
事件經過:這位資深華爾街投資者提高了年底目標,並預測到年底前業績強勁和技術進步將推動大幅增長。
In a note, the president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research raised the year-end target for the S&P 500 from 5,400 to 5,800 points — implying a 6% surge from current levels.
Yardeni Research總裁兼首席投資策略師在一份報告中將標普500指數的年末目標從5400點上調至5800點,這意味着指數將比當前水平上漲6%。
Yardeni also projects that the index, which is closely replicated by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), could reach 6,300 points in 2025 and 6,825 points in 2026 under a "Roaring 2020s scenario," which he estimates has a 60% probability.
Yardeni還預計,在“狂熱的2020年代”情況下,由SPDR標普500 ETF Trust(NYSE:SPY)密切複製的指數可能在2025年達到6300點,在2026年達到6825點,Yardeni估計該情況的可能性爲60%。
Forward earnings could hit $400 per share by the end of 2029, potentially pushing the S&P 500 to 8,400 points, a 55% rally from current levels, he said.
他表示,截至2029年底,前瞻性盈利可能達到每股400美元,可能將標普500指數推高至8400點,較當前水平上漲55%。
Earnings As Backbone Of Continued Stock Market Gains
盈利是持續股市增長的支柱
He highlighted that second-quarter earnings reporting season is progressing well, with the earnings-per-share (EPS) growth rate for S&P 500 companies soaring to 8.7% year-over-year during the week of July 25. Yardeni expects full-year EPS growth to reach 10%-12% year-over-year.
他強調,第二季度的盈利報告季節進展順利,標普500公司的每股收益增長率在7月25日這周同比大漲8.7%。Yardeni預計全年每股收益增長率將達到10%-12%。
Yardeni expects S&P 500 forward revenues per share to rise further, after hitting record highs with a 5.7% year-over-year increase during the week of July 18.
Yardeni預計標普500前景收入每股將進一步上升,因爲在7月18日的一週中同比增長了5.7%創下紀錄。
"That's a solid increase considering that inflation has moderated significantly over the past year. The S&P 500 forward profit margin at 13.4% currently is almost back to its record high of early 2022," he wrote.
他寫道:“考慮到過去一年通脹大幅放緩,這是一次堅實的增長。目前的標普500期貨利潤率已經接近2022年初的歷史高位。
Magnificent 7 And Broader Market Strength
科技七巨頭和更廣泛的市場強勢
"We think that the very highly valued Magnificent-7 stocks will remain magnificent and continue to sport a high collective forward P/E, providing support to the S&P 500," Yardeni stated.
“我們認爲非常高估值的科技七巨頭股票將繼續保持高 collective forward P/E,並提供對標普500的支持,”Yardeni表示。
He also suggests that the forward P/E of the S&P 493 (the S&P 500 minus these seven stocks) could rise further as corporate profit margins benefit from technological innovations such as automation, robotics, AI, the cloud, and supercomputing.
他還建議,隨着自動化、機器人技術、人工智能、雲計算、超級計算等技術創新的推進,標普493(標普500減去這七隻股票)的forward P/E可能會進一步上漲,公司利潤率也會從中受益。
Near-Term Election Volatility, Fed Policy To Remain Restrictive
近期選舉波動和聯儲局政策依然限制
Despite the bullish outlook, Yardeni expects some near-term volatility.
儘管前景樂觀,但Yardeni預計會有一些短期波動。
He predicts the S&P 500 will fluctuate below its July 16 record high through the election period, finding support around 5,450, its 50-day moving average, thanks to strong corporate earnings.
他預測,標普500指數將在選舉期間低於7月16日的紀錄高水平波動,並在5,450點(其50日移動平均水平)處尋找支撐,得益於強勁的企業盈利。
Yardeni forecasts the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.00% to 5.25% in September and maintain it steady for the rest of the year.
Yardeni預測,聯邦基金利率將在9月份降低25個點子,降至5.00%至5.25%的區間,並在今年餘下時間內保持穩定。
"While we expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut interest rates at its September meeting, we do not think it needs to because we don't see a recession looming," he explained.
他解釋道:“雖然我們預計聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)將在9月份會議上減息,但我們認爲沒有必要這樣做,因爲我們認爲沒有經濟衰退的跡象。”
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。